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Thread: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

  1. #16
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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Think their first two 1st round picks will be used on forwards. No way I can see them passing on Byfield or Stutzle, even if Drysdale is THAT good. More probable they look at a D man with their last 1st rounder in my opinion.
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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Potatoeman View Post
    First off, I was about to post the same exact question, so thanks for beating me to it

    Second, What do you guys think about the following scenario :

    Ottawa picks at 3 and 5. They want a forward and a D and they fear that Detroit won't let Drysdale slipt through their fingers. Since the forwards are all so darn close, Ottawa picks Drysdale at 3, lets Detroit pick a forward and then pick whichever top forward is left on their list at 5.

    Possible? Probable? Would Stutzle still be your #3 pick (for the majority who have answered here) if he were to be picked by Detroit instead of Ottawa (or even later)?
    I think that's a very realistic scenario, you make an excellent point here. If at pick 3, assuming Lafreniere and Byfield are gone, the Sens have two forwards they value equally, they can take Drysdale at 3. And I definitely think that could be the case. I personally think Raymond, Stutzle and Rossi are all in that same tier, so you'll know at least two of them will be available when you pick again at 5. If they want a defenseman and a forward with their two top picks, that makes a lot of sense.

    I used similar logic with New Jersey at 7 and 10. Assuming Drysdale is gone, there's only one top pair D-man available in Sanderson, so it makes sense to grab him at 7 and take a forward at 10.

    For fantasy hockey purposes, I'm taking Rossi at 3 (assuming Lafreniere and Byfield are gone). He's the most NHL ready out of the options there, and his upside is right up there with Raymond and Stutzle.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    I think that's a very realistic scenario, you make an excellent point here. If at pick 3, assuming Lafreniere and Byfield are gone, the Sens have two forwards they value equally, they can take Drysdale at 3. And I definitely think that could be the case. I personally think Raymond, Stutzle and Rossi are all in that same tier, so you'll know at least two of them will be available when you pick again at 5. If they want a defenseman and a forward with their two top picks, that makes a lot of sense.

    I used similar logic with New Jersey at 7 and 10. Assuming Drysdale is gone, there's only one top pair D-man available in Sanderson, so it makes sense to grab him at 7 and take a forward at 10.

    For fantasy hockey purposes, I'm taking Rossi at 3 (assuming Lafreniere and Byfield are gone). He's the most NHL ready out of the options there, and his upside is right up there with Raymond and Stutzle.
    Here's the part I just can't wrap my head around. Suppose the Sens decide they aren't going to go BPA and draft for position.

    What is, by far, the greatest need? I number one center. Byfield or Stutzle fits the bill.

    But you think there's a chance they draft a D (Ottawa's greatest area of strength) at 3rd, so they can draft a winger at 5th?

    Even if one buys that that there are a group of forwards in a similar tier after the 2nd pick, only one of them is a potential C.

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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Here's the part I just can't wrap my head around. Suppose the Sens decide they aren't going to go BPA and draft for position.

    What is, by far, the greatest need? I number one center. Byfield or Stutzle fits the bill.

    But you think there's a chance they draft a D (Ottawa's greatest area of strength) at 3rd, so they can draft a winger at 5th?

    Even if one buys that that there are a group of forwards in a similar tier after the 2nd pick, only one of them is a potential C.
    Stutzle projects to be a winger. Rossi is more likely to be a center.

    BPA is such an idealistic term. Not even the best scouts in the world can say who is the best player in any given spot. NHL teams work with tiers. If they have 3 players in the same tier, it doesn't really matter which one they get. Getting those tiers correct is what scouts are paid to do.

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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    According to Pronman: "Stutzle is officially listed as a winger, but I would wager whichever team drafts him announces shortly afterward they view him as a center as a majority (but not all) of NHL scouts I’ve talked to think that he’s an NHL center due to his speed, skill and ability to play off the puck."

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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    According to Pronman: "Stutzle is officially listed as a winger, but I would wager whichever team drafts him announces shortly afterward they view him as a center as a majority (but not all) of NHL scouts I’ve talked to think that he’s an NHL center due to his speed, skill and ability to play off the puck."
    He has a hard time getting to the middle even at the DEL level, so it's difficult to see him doing that at the NHL level. He's played maybe 20 games at center over the last two years - he wasn't even a full-time center in the German junior league. Either way, I'd say it's like 60/40 or 40/60 chance he becomes a center at best, regardless of which side you stand on. Rossi is still more likely to be a center in the NHL, even though he may not be able to do it either. One could even argue that even Raymond has more center-like qualities even though he hasn't played that position in years.

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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    He has a hard time getting to the middle even at the DEL level, so it's difficult to see him doing that at the NHL level. He's played maybe 20 games at center over the last two years - he wasn't even a full-time center in the German junior league. Either way, I'd say it's like 60/40 or 40/60 chance he becomes a center at best, regardless of which side you stand on. Rossi is still more likely to be a center in the NHL, even though he may not be able to do it either. One could even argue that even Raymond has more center-like qualities even though he hasn't played that position in years.
    Tried to rep you but I couldn't. Everything I've been reading (and let's face it, I don't see many of these guys very much, with the exception of Rossi) has me believing that picking a D at 3 will be a public relations disaster for Ottawa.

    The Athletic's writer for Ottawa calls Byfield/Stutzle at 3 a "no brainer" and Ottawa's need for a 1C a glaring hole. And at 5, she projects another forward, just because Ottawa needs help up front.

    Her targets: if you get Byfield at 3, go for the most dynamic winger at 5 (she likes Perfetti). And if you get Stutzle at 3, target Rossi (to double down on getting that 1C). I like this approach, personally.

    If they take Drysdale at 3, and Rossi at 5, I think it's very hard to sell enthusiasm to Ottawa fans.

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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Tried to rep you but I couldn't. Everything I've been reading (and let's face it, I don't see many of these guys very much, with the exception of Rossi) has me believing that picking a D at 3 will be a public relations disaster for Ottawa.

    If they take Drysdale at 3, and Rossi at 5, I think it's very hard to sell enthusiasm to Ottawa fans.
    I agree, but...

    I'm remembering when Montreal passed on Kreider in order to draft Louis Leblanc since the draft was held in Mtl and the crowd was chanting "Leblanc, Leblanc!" and, to quote Trevor Timmins : "If I didn't draft that guy, I probably would have needed a police escort to get out of the building.". We remember how it worked out with Leblanc... a couple of years later, Timmins and co were getting ripped apart by fans because they had passed on Angelo Esposito in order to draft Ryan McDonagh and then later had passed in David Perron to draft Max Pacioretty. We also know how that worked out, even if Perron is a good player nonetheless.

    While pleasing the fans is a good part of a GM's job, their main job is to assemble the best team that they can and if Ott feels like they would be better served with one of Stutzle/Rossi/Raymond and Chabot/Brannstrom/Drysdale on the back end than with two of Stutzle/Rossi/Raymond, I just hope they stick to their guns and don't repeat the mistake Mtl made by wanting to please their fans too much with the Leblanc pick. Definitely not saying that THAT is how they view it, you may be entirely right about them feeling it's better to pick 2 forwards, just that they should not base their picks on popular opinion either.

    Gonna maybe throw some more oil on that fire, but any chance they feel they need to draft Askarov at 5? (I seriously doubt he gets to their 3rd first round pick)
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    Default Re: 3rd Overall - who's the pick for dynasty points only league ?

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Tried to rep you but I couldn't. Everything I've been reading (and let's face it, I don't see many of these guys very much, with the exception of Rossi) has me believing that picking a D at 3 will be a public relations disaster for Ottawa.

    The Athletic's writer for Ottawa calls Byfield/Stutzle at 3 a "no brainer" and Ottawa's need for a 1C a glaring hole. And at 5, she projects another forward, just because Ottawa needs help up front.

    Her targets: if you get Byfield at 3, go for the most dynamic winger at 5 (she likes Perfetti). And if you get Stutzle at 3, target Rossi (to double down on getting that 1C). I like this approach, personally.

    If they take Drysdale at 3, and Rossi at 5, I think it's very hard to sell enthusiasm to Ottawa fans.
    Perfetti is more likely to be a center than Stutzle as well, I forgot about him for a moment. Seems weird to call him a winger when he was an excellent center this season and showed a ton of center-like qualities.

    At the end of the day, I would most likely take two forwards in their situation as well. My whole point was that if they want a defenseman with either pick, getting him at three makes a lot of sense if they have at least two forwards they value similarly at that point - which is a very realistic scenario assuming the Kings don't overthink this thing and somehow leave Byfield for the Sens. This draft class has 6-7 guys who could go 3rd and I wouldn't be even mildly surprised.

    Sens don't have anyone on the right side who projects to become a top pair guy, so taking Drysdale makes sense because of that. They do have two good guys who project to become solid middle-pair guys, so it's not something they have to do by any means. But considering how next-to-impossible it is to acquire top pair defensemen, you pretty much have to draft them in the top ten when you have a chance or you don't get them. So I'm fairly certain it's something they'll at least consider, even if they end up deciding against it eventually.

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