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Thread: Tampa Bay Forwards

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    Default Tampa Bay Forwards

    I was looking at the Lightning roster, and with the impending cap crunch, they're going to be moving out at least one forward, if not two or three.

    It got me wondering what that is going to mean for fantasy purposes. Miller got underused in TB, and thrived in a great spot with Vancouver. Do we see that from others? Do we see a Killorn or Goodrow revival if a couple of second line forwards are moved out?

    There's a clear top 3 with Stamkos, Point, and Kucherov. Past that, with Cirelli, Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde, Goodrow, Coleman and Paquette, there's 8 forwards that could realistically be part of your second line. Cirelli seems to have entrenched himself in the top 6, with Palat likely the 5th forward, but what is the fallout going to look like?

    Do the fantasy values of Palat, Johnson, or Course fluctuate based on whether they're moved or not? And if so, in what direction?

    I think there could be a lot more cap movement from the Lightning than most other teams, and there could be some solid stock market buying/selling to be done with the right chips here.

    Curious to hear some community thoughts.
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    5mill and they need to sign Serg and Cernak, so a forward very much likely will have to be moved.

    I'm saying the guy that could move is likely Johnson. Don't know why, but I'm seeing him as the biggest return for his possible value in a 2nd line role. Tyler Johnson to Ottawa is what I'd think would be a good fit.
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    5mill and they need to sign Serg and Cernak, so a forward very much likely will have to be moved.

    I'm saying the guy that could move is likely Johnson. Don't know why, but I'm seeing him as the biggest return for his possible value in a 2nd line role. Tyler Johnson to Ottawa is what I'd think would be a good fit.
    5mill and they need to sign Serg, Cernak, AND Cirelli. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to move Palat and Killorn on top of T. Johnson. Though if Cernak doesn't take a team-friendly deal they could move him.

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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    5mill and they need to sign Serg and Cernak, so a forward very much likely will have to be moved.

    I'm saying the guy that could move is likely Johnson. Don't know why, but I'm seeing him as the biggest return for his possible value in a 2nd line role. Tyler Johnson to Ottawa is what I'd think would be a good fit.
    I like Johnson to be a principal guy who gets moved and reaping the benefits of a bigger role. He seemed to produce when on the triplets line, although in hindsight, it is possible that Kucherov lifted Johnson substantially. Still, for at least for the near future, Johnson could be a big beneficiary of the cap crunch.

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    They have $5.3M to sign Cernak, Sergachyev (who should be around 5M on his own), PLUS sign at least one more defence man and two more forwards just to get to 20 skaters. PLUS, they will have to replace the roster slot of whoever moves out.

    If they call up Volkov, Barre Boulet, and Katchouk on forward, re-sign one of Schenn or Bogosian on D for league min, and then call up Foote. That's 4.2M right there to fill out the roster. My prediction sheet has Cernak, Cirelli and Sergachyev combined at about $13.2M, which would be a coup for the Lightning. That's $17.4M needed to fit in a hole of $5.3M = $12.1M space they need to find to ice a full roster of 23. If you can save a player's salary minus the 900K needed to replace him in the lineup, then at minimum you would need to move three. Say you ship out Johnson, Gourde and Killorn, and get back two forwards earning a total of $2M. That's 11.6M space you're gaining. If they cut Katchouk to only have 22 on the roster (one extra F and D), then you have a final result something like this:

    Means the lineup would look like:
    Palat-Point-Kucherov
    Coleman-Cirelli-Stamkos
    Goodrow-Guy-Paquette
    Guy-ABB-Katchouk
    Volkov

    Hedman-Sergachyev
    McDonach-Cernak
    Foote-Cobourn
    Bogosian

    Vas
    McElhinney

    Roster of 22, and a sliver under the cap.

    That means whoever is leftover in the top-6 (in this case Palat, Coleman and Cirelli), would probably see a big boost in value, while the guys shipped out could go up or down depending on situation.
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    Thinking Johnson is the guy they would like to move as well. He has the opportunity to give them a better return on a draft pick or prospect.
    Can see Ottawa as a landing spot - help them with a little veteran leadership. Not sure if he would like going to Ottawa.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magicstew View Post
    Thinking Johnson is the guy they would like to move as well. He has the opportunity to give them a better return on a draft pick or prospect.
    Can see Ottawa as a landing spot - help them with a little veteran leadership. Not sure if he would like going to Ottawa.
    Johnson and who else though?
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    Using the Ottawa example that's coming up, they actually seem like they could be a similarly good landing spot for someone like Johnson or Gourde as Vancouver was for Miller last year. A team that's moving up from the bottom, lots of good young offensive talent, but not too much that the TB forward coming in would be bumped off of PP1. If that is indeed where Johnson ends up, then he could look like a juicy piece going into next season between Tkachuk and Ryan or whoever else you feel should be the RW on the top line.
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    New Jersey I could see adding one of these guys as well. Arizona, Edmonton, Buffalo, or Detroit all could have the cap space and the vacuum to fill at forward. Tyler Johnson as some centre help in MTL might not be a bad fit either.
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    Buffalo even moving a D-man for Johnson makes sense. Might be the move that should be explored, but one for one deals are hard to pull off in the NHL.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    Buffalo even moving a D-man for Johnson makes sense. Might be the move that should be explored, but one for one deals are hard to pull off in the NHL.
    Jokiharju is the only one that could make sense with talent and cap hit for TB. Unless Buffalo retains half of McCabe's salary.

    But that only solves a problem for one year for the Lightning because that's the only term McCabe or Jokiharju have left.
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    PALAT IS SO GONE FROM TAMPA. Just say'n. Probably landing in a less than exciting location like Minnesota or Arizona where forwards go to under achieve.

    If I owned Palat... I'd try and move him. (wink wink...nudge nudge)

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    Quote Originally Posted by havanablast21 View Post
    PALAT IS SO GONE FROM TAMPA. Just say'n. Probably landing in a less than exciting location like Minnesota or Arizona where forwards go to under achieve.

    If I owned Palat... I'd try and move him. (wink wink...nudge nudge)
    Extremely subtle
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay Forwards

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I was looking at the Lightning roster, and with the impending cap crunch, they're going to be moving out at least one forward, if not two or three.

    It got me wondering what that is going to mean for fantasy purposes. Miller got underused in TB, and thrived in a great spot with Vancouver. Do we see that from others? Do we see a Killorn or Goodrow revival if a couple of second line forwards are moved out?

    There's a clear top 3 with Stamkos, Point, and Kucherov. Past that, with Cirelli, Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde, Goodrow, Coleman and Paquette, there's 8 forwards that could realistically be part of your second line. Cirelli seems to have entrenched himself in the top 6, with Palat likely the 5th forward, but what is the fallout going to look like?

    Do the fantasy values of Palat, Johnson, or Course fluctuate based on whether they're moved or not? And if so, in what direction?

    I think there could be a lot more cap movement from the Lightning than most other teams, and there could be some solid stock market buying/selling to be done with the right chips here.

    Curious to hear some community thoughts.
    In our expansion draft episode on the pod I believe I had Johnson going to Seattle, Killorn getting traded this fall when his full NTC turns into a M-NTC with a 16-team no-trade list.

    Also worth noting, Lightning have been experimenting with 5F PP looks so potential for different guys to move in and out of roles.

    Joseph, Volkov, Katchouk maybe move into more prominent roles as the machine keeps churning, or maybe this is when the Lightning start slipping a little.
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    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    In our expansion draft episode on the pod I believe I had Johnson going to Seattle, Killorn getting traded this fall when his full NTC turns into a M-NTC with a 16-team no-trade list.

    Also worth noting, Lightning have been experimenting with 5F PP looks so potential for different guys to move in and out of roles.

    Joseph, Volkov, Katchouk maybe move into more prominent roles as the machine keeps churning, or maybe this is when the Lightning start slipping a little.
    Still a year before the expansion draft though, and the Lightning are going to be stuck moving out a few bodies even before that due to the stagnant cap. It does seem like Johnson have the most name value vs how they have fallen out of being necessary pieces for the lightning.

    When/where were they practicing with 5F PP units?

    I also missed Joseph, good call that he's probably one of the first call to be a filler, though he's also an RFA, and if he gets $1M they may need their 700K options instead.
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