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Thread: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I think Mrazek is pretty clearly the most valuable asset there. Doesn't necessarily mean he's worth keeping over whatever other options you have though.
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  2. #17
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I think Mrazek is pretty clearly the most valuable asset there. Doesn't necessarily mean he's worth keeping over whatever other options you have though.
    Here are the goalies numbers from last season based on our scoring system:

    Petr Mrazek - $3,125,000 for 1 more year - 40 games, 182.75 Fantasy Points, 4.57 FP/GP
    Antti Raanta - $4,250,000 for 1 more year- 33 games, 178.5 fantasy points, 5.41 FP/GP
    Alex Stalock - $785,000 for 2 more years- 38 games, 202.25 fantasy points, 5.32 FP/GP

    The previous year Mrazek had 233 points while the other two combined for 100 so you are probably right.

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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Uh oh! I just traded pick 13 in the 2020 entry draft away. In exchange I received a 3rd round pick in 2021 and a 2021 1st pick. The deal was made with one of our expansion teams. I am hoping that the expansion teams turn out as bad as I predict they should be.
    I only care about future firsts when I don't know exactly where they are. You knew you were trading 1.13 for a pick from an expansion team that will likly be better than 1.13 in that draft year. That's fine. I meant trading away a pick where you don't know how bad you're going to be.

    One of those 4 expansion teams is going to be surprisingly good, you just don't know which one.

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  4. #19
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Yes, I replaced a GM who disappeared during the previous season. I too think that 3 of the expansion teams will be terrible and one of them will be quite good. I am hoping it's not the one who traded me their 1st round pick next year!

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Yes, I replaced a GM who disappeared during the previous season. I too think that 3 of the expansion teams will be terrible and one of them will be quite good. I am hoping it's not the one who traded me their 1st round pick next year!
    Just curious - why do you think one will be good and three terrible? (I think they'll all be terrible).

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    In my 20+ years of fantasy sports experience I have realized one thing more often than anything else; GMs are stupid.

    There are going to be lots of GMs leaving the Philip Danault/Tanner Pearson/Brent Burns/Jeff Petry type guys unprotected to protect the Alex Khovanov/Morgan Frost/Ryan Merkley type guys. Fantasy GMs LOVE potential. My guess is that 3 of the expansion GMs will do the same thing and will draft rebuilding type guys. The smart expansion GM will draft all of the older/lesser named/valuable fantasy asset guys and will turn his team into a contender in year one. I also know that GMs are going to greatly overvalue goaltenders (especially prospect goalies) and will be wasting lots of protection spots on them. This should leave a few more skaters available then should be in a league that had 3 goalies in its top 100 players last season.

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Thanks; interesting explanation. I was basing my forecast based on non-stupid GMs (which is likely highly unrealistic). I'd be really curious to see the protection lists, once they are available, to see if your theory pans out.

    My guess if is there are some strong vets to be had, they will end up getting sprinkled among the four new teams. (Because the four new teams will realize they can flip them for better prospects than will be available in the expansion draft).

    If I'm right, then your 1st rounder will be gold no matter who you traded with

  8. #23
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Teams can only protect 2 goalies with 50+ NHL games played. The existing teams in the league thing the expansion teams should be competitive next season because "teams are going to protect prospects" and "there are going to be lots of 3-4 fantasy point per game guys left unprotected in the expansion draft".

    The highest point team last season had 12,500 points in about 7/8 of a regular season. That tells me that a team would need about 14,000 points to win (it's a head to head league so this is not exactly correct). 14,000 points over an 82 game schedule with 23 even 26 because teams can keep NHL players in the minors is 560 points per player. 4 points per game is only 328 points. Unless I am miscalculating something, expansion teams will be terrible which is why I acquired one of their first round picks for next season already.
    I'm in the same league (I traded you Kempe actually), just as an fyi about your calculations here. Since we play 2 H2H matchups a week fantrax does the math a bit funny and double counts every players' points. So that 14,000 estimate is really 7,000 points so roughly 305 points per roster player.

  9. #24
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by jshed2 View Post
    I'm in the same league (I traded you Kempe actually), just as an fyi about your calculations here. Since we play 2 H2H matchups a week fantrax does the math a bit funny and double counts every players' points. So that 14,000 estimate is really 7,000 points so roughly 305 points per roster player.
    That's good to know and makes a lot more sense. I was trying to figure out why my calculations did not jive with what I was seeing.

    So it's going to take about 7000 - 7500 points to win the league in a normal season. That works out to about 3.7 points per game for 23 roster spots. Looking at my expected protection list, my "best" non-protected player had a shade over 3 points per game last season. My 7th "best" non-protected player had just under 2 points per game last year. My team finished 10th out of 20 with an absentee manager.

    This still tells me the expansion teams are going to be terrible.

  10. #25
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Here are the goalies numbers from last season based on our scoring system:

    Petr Mrazek - $3,125,000 for 1 more year - 40 games, 182.75 Fantasy Points, 4.57 FP/GP
    Antti Raanta - $4,250,000 for 1 more year- 33 games, 178.5 fantasy points, 5.41 FP/GP
    Alex Stalock - $785,000 for 2 more years- 38 games, 202.25 fantasy points, 5.32 FP/GP

    The previous year Mrazek had 233 points while the other two combined for 100 so you are probably right.
    For some reason Raanta's name didn't click for me the first time and I could see him having some value, but of the set I still like Mrazek the most, then Raanta, then Stalock.
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  11. #26
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    There are going to be lots of GMs leaving the Philip Danault/Tanner Pearson/Brent Burns/Jeff Petry type guys unprotected to protect the Alex Khovanov/Morgan Frost/Ryan Merkley type guys. Fantasy GMs LOVE potential.
    Turns out I was wrong about one of these lists as Danault, Pearson and Petry were all protected (the team that owns Burns has not yet submitted their list). However, I was also correct about Khovanov, Frost and Merkley as they were all protected. The team who protected Khovanov also protected Dmitry Zavgorodniy and did not protect Cam Atkinson, Jon Drouin or Jared Spurgeon. The team that protected Frost also protected Patrik Puistola but did not protect Mattias Ekholm or Nick Schmaltz. The team that protected Merkley also protect Jon Dugan, Sami Niku and Nicolas Roy but did not protect Robby Fabbri, Danton Heinen, Alex Goligoski or Josh Manson.

    One team protected 4 players who played more than a handful of NHL games last season and did not protect Patrick Kane, TJ Oshie, Mike Hoffman, Lars Eller, Sam Girard, Noah Hanifin.

    It's almost comical to see how bad some of these lists are.

  12. #27
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    One team protected 4 players who played more than a handful of NHL games last season and did not protect Patrick Kane, TJ Oshie, Mike Hoffman, Lars Eller, Sam Girard, Noah Hanifin.
    Pardon me?? Wow!!
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  13. #28
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Was McDavid protected?

    Maybe you want to abandon your team, and be a 5th expansion team? lol

  14. #29
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    McDavid was protected.

    I think my team should be about as good as the best possible expansion team so I would rather keep what I have. The same can't be said for a lot of the other existing teams though!

  15. #30
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Turns out I was wrong about one of these lists as Danault, Pearson and Petry were all protected (the team that owns Burns has not yet submitted their list). However, I was also correct about Khovanov, Frost and Merkley as they were all protected. The team who protected Khovanov also protected Dmitry Zavgorodniy and did not protect Cam Atkinson, Jon Drouin or Jared Spurgeon. The team that protected Frost also protected Patrik Puistola but did not protect Mattias Ekholm or Nick Schmaltz. The team that protected Merkley also protect Jon Dugan, Sami Niku and Nicolas Roy but did not protect Robby Fabbri, Danton Heinen, Alex Goligoski or Josh Manson.

    One team protected 4 players who played more than a handful of NHL games last season and did not protect Patrick Kane, TJ Oshie, Mike Hoffman, Lars Eller, Sam Girard, Noah Hanifin.

    It's almost comical to see how bad some of these lists are.
    This is EXACTLY why one should never underestimate stupidity. Morons & idiots are everywhere, and idiot-proofing something is only temporary, as humanity will always find ways to make better idiots.

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