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Thread: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

  1. #1
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    Default Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    So I just replaced an existing GM in a 20 team salary capped dynasty league. The team finished just out of a playoff spot last season with an absentee manager. The league is adding 4 teams this off-season so there will be an expansion draft. The league uses a minimum 20 player roster with a maximum of 23 players. We dress 3C, 6W, 3F, 6D, 2G every day. We also have minors where any player with less than 100 (50 for goalies) NHL GP can be stashed. During the season we have a maximum roster size of 55.

    The expansion draft rules are straight forward. Each team will be able to protect 20 assets total. This includes main roster players, minor players and 2020 entry draft picks. Each existing team is going to love 7 skaters and 1 goalie.

    Right now the chat around the league is that teams are struggling to narrow their protection lists down to 20 names so a lot of teams are interested in making 2 or 3 for 1 type deals so they don't lose a guy they like for nothing in the expansion draft.

    Am I crazy to do the exact opposite of what everyone else is trying to do?

    I would take a small downgrade on one of my 20 keepers in order to pick up 1 or 2 more guys? For instance, I traded Cayden Primeau for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Lukas Dostal & Arturri Lehknonen (this was a no brainer to me since I think Dostal/Luukkonen/Primeau are all worth the same so getting 2 for 1 plus another NHLer was an offer I could not resist). I have now been offered Tyler Johnson, Pavel Zacha and Daniel Sprong for Cam Atkinson.

    My thought process is if I do enough of these types of trades, I will have 35 or so NHL assets before the expansion draft and probably 28 or so after it. I am expecting lots of teams to use some of their protection spots on prospects that will not be in the NHL next season. This tells me that teams will be looking to add NHLers once the expansion draft is over. At that time, I should be able to do two for one deals where I am upgrading my roster. My plan is that the cost of acquisition in the 2/3 for 1s right now is going to be lower than the sale price when I do the opposite after the expansion draft is over. This plan would only work if I could put together a few more trades of this nature to make sure that I end up with enough solid assets after the expansion draft.

    Am I going about this all wrong or is there potential to hit it big with this game plan?

    My current roster:
    C: Bergeron, Landeskog, Sissons, Benn, Couture, Wallmark, Lizotte, Gambrell, Stephens, Vergaeghe,
    W: Atkinson, Lehkonen, Marchand, Meier, Tanev, Gourde, Panik, Watson, Jost
    D: Cernak, Giordano, S Jones, Krug, McAvoy, McCabe, M Anderson, L Carlsson
    G: Mrazek, Raanta, Stalock

    Minors:
    C: Laczynski, Talvitie,
    W: A Campbell, W Lockwood, S Miletic, R Pitlick, J Rondbjerg, T Steenbergern, M Teply, B Tracey
    D: F Allard, L Belpedio, B Keeper, J McIsaac, B Menell, D Samorukov, L Thomson, Y Zamula
    G: L Dostal, UP Luukkonen

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I think it's a very solid idea. I commented in your other thread, and the deal where you gave up Primeau made a lot of sense. You swap goalie prospects and get viable pieces to do it.

    I also like the Atkinson move. While other teams are trying to consolidate now, you're trying to load up since you can only lose so many players, you will come out with extra players over every other team.
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    This is a great idea! I think the benefits of it definitely outweigh the costs of it.

    You will still be protecting the 20 best assets for your team. You will just have more assets outside the 20 to work with after the expansion draft.

  4. #4
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    The Great One

    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    If everyone else is selling, then yes, I'd be buying (assuming you can trade the left over pieces later).

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I like it! And good on you for thinking outside the box.
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Here are the deals I have made so far:

    (Give for Get)

    Roman Josi + Nazem Kadri + Zack MacEwen for Seth Jones + Timo Meier + Brandon Tanev + Rasmus Asplund

    Cayden Primeau for Ville Husso + Tyler Madden + Lucas Dostal + Arturri Lehkonen

    Cam Atkinson for Tyler Johnson, Pavel Zacha, Oskar Steen, '21 2nd round pick

    12th overall + '21 3rd for 13th overall + Adrian Kempe

    '21 1st round pick for Tyson Jost + Yegor Zamula


    I am still working the phone lines to try to make more deals. How am I doing so far?

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I don't like the Jost deal even with not knowing where the first is. Usually firsts can be used in deals for bigger key assets. Otherwise looks okay.
    I may not have made the Josi deal, but I know that's my bias kicking in. Getting Jones back for him is solid.
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  8. #8
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Roman Josi + Nazem Kadri + Zack MacEwen for Seth Jones + Timo Meier + Brandon Tanev + Rasmus Asplund - As hard as it is giving up Josi, I like the return of Jones and Meier a lot here.

    Cayden Primeau for Ville Husso + Tyler Madden + Lucas Dostal + Arturri Lehkonen - I thought you got Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, but Husso is still a good return for Primeau and adding Lehkonen.

    Cam Atkinson for Tyler Johnson, Pavel Zacha, Oskar Steen, '21 2nd round pick -I have never been a fan of Atkinson, and I think Johnson finds himself in a better role next year.

    12th overall + '21 3rd for 13th overall + Adrian Kempe - Moving down one spot to add Kempe.. I like it!

    '21 1st round pick for Tyson Jost + Yegor Zamula - I am still a believer in Jost and I hear nothing but great things about Zamula. I think by all these additions you will be able to make a trade to get another '21 first round pick back.


    Job well done!
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  9. #9
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I don't like the Jost deal even with not knowing where the first is. Usually firsts can be used in deals for bigger key assets. Otherwise looks okay.
    I may not have made the Josi deal, but I know that's my bias kicking in. Getting Jones back for him is solid.
    I hope my 1st is in the latter half of round one next year. If it's not than I messed up. I also think Jost is going to become a 60 point guy. I am also extremely high on Zamula, you might remember a certain thread titled "Egor Zamula - Calgary Hitmen defenseman".

    I trade UP Luukkonen for Husso and Madden, I just didn't list that step.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I'm a bit worried about you giving up your own future first, it's something I try to never do when in an uncertain situation. That said, I like the guys you got.

    I think Zamula is very unlikely to be a PP1 defenseman on the Flyers, mostly because I see lots of options in front of him, and I'm doubting he's better than Provorov, but he's looking like a great multi-cat guy.
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  11. #11
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I'm a bit worried about you giving up your own future first, it's something I try to never do when in an uncertain situation.
    Uh oh! I just traded pick 13 in the 2020 entry draft away. In exchange I received a 3rd round pick in 2021 and a 2021 1st pick. The deal was made with one of our expansion teams. I am hoping that the expansion teams turn out as bad as I predict they should be.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I can't get over the fact that you are allowing 20 teams to protect 20 assets (the top 400 assets), and then makes 4 teams out of the utter crap that is left over.

    24 teams x start 2 goalies and an expansion team will probably have to take Stalock as the best option. Or Dostal and wait 5 years? A majority of the prospects you'll expose - I've never heard of. And on your main roster, there really won't be any decent players exposed.

    As mentioned above, I do like your strategy, given the rules in place.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Teams can only protect 2 goalies with 50+ NHL games played. The existing teams in the league thing the expansion teams should be competitive next season because "teams are going to protect prospects" and "there are going to be lots of 3-4 fantasy point per game guys left unprotected in the expansion draft".

    The highest point team last season had 12,500 points in about 7/8 of a regular season. That tells me that a team would need about 14,000 points to win (it's a head to head league so this is not exactly correct). 14,000 points over an 82 game schedule with 23 even 26 because teams can keep NHL players in the minors is 560 points per player. 4 points per game is only 328 points. Unless I am miscalculating something, expansion teams will be terrible which is why I acquired one of their first round picks for next season already.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Teams can only protect 2 goalies with 50+ NHL games played. The existing teams in the league thing the expansion teams should be competitive next season because "teams are going to protect prospects" and "there are going to be lots of 3-4 fantasy point per game guys left unprotected in the expansion draft".

    The highest point team last season had 12,500 points in about 7/8 of a regular season. That tells me that a team would need about 14,000 points to win (it's a head to head league so this is not exactly correct). 14,000 points over an 82 game schedule with 23 even 26 because teams can keep NHL players in the minors is 560 points per player. 4 points per game is only 328 points. Unless I am miscalculating something, expansion teams will be terrible which is why I acquired one of their first round picks for next season already.
    In other words, you'll protect Mrazek and Rannta and expose Stalock

    The expansion teams will be terrible, especially by adding 4 of them.

    Did anybody in your league consider doing a mock draft before deciding to adding 4 teams to the league?

    It just screams "bush league" to me...!

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Expansion Draft Preparation - Thoughts on a Crazy Idea

    I am not protecting any goalies since I can only lose 1 of them. I don't know who's the best between Stalock, Raanta and Mrazek so why waste a protection spot.

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