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Thread: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

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    Default 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Hey guys, looking for some advice.

    I recently took part in a 5 team redraft in a 12 team dynasty league. 3 managers left, and two more volunteered to create a pool of players to chooe from. My team roster is in my sig.

    I ended up winning the 2020 entry draft lottery. There are some pretty stacked teams in this league, and as such, I built more for the future, with enough firepower to make in interesting for the next few years. I also have the 8th, 10th, 13th, and 27th O.A. for this year's 2020 entry draft.

    I had an offer of 2nd O.A., Kyle Connor and Owen Tippet for my 1st O.A.

    This seems very hard to turn down. I would be taking Byfield at 2nd, as center is my weakest position.

    Should I take this deal? Or is Laf really that much greater than the 2nd O.A.?

    Appreciate any and all input.
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Welcome to the community!!

    Connor scored at over a point per game pace this year. So you know what you are getting with him.

    Owen Tippet was just under a point per game pace in the AHL.

    So you have a lot more certainty in Connor and Tippet than you do in Lafrenier.

    What is the risk of taking the deal? That Lafreniere turns into a 100 point LWer.

    But even if he turns into a 100 point LW.. there is potential that Byfield turns into an 80 point Centre, then you would have an 80 point winger in Connor AND and 80 point Centre in Byfield.

    Or there is the risk that both Lafrenier and Byfield end up as busts.

    So basically I think taking the known commodity in Connor is the least risky situation as long as you can cope with it IF Lafreniere becomes an annual 100 point guy.

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    I think Connor + Byfield is a solid return for Laf. I'm wondering if there's a piece that might have a little more certainty than Tippett, or plug a hole for you, that you might be able to negotiate instead?
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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    I'm a Kyle Connor believer so I'd tend to like this deal. I'm not as sure on Tippett, maybe there's another prospect the other owner could substitute into the deal.

    In any event, you may want to wait until after the 2nd lottery. If Edmonton or Pittsburgh gets Lafreniere, the hype train will break all known speed records and you should be able to get much more than 2OA, Connor and Tippett.

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Quote Originally Posted by senryu View Post
    I'm a Kyle Connor believer so I'd tend to like this deal. I'm not as sure on Tippett, maybe there's another prospect the other owner could substitute into the deal.

    In any event, you may want to wait until after the 2nd lottery. If Edmonton or Pittsburgh gets Lafreniere, the hype train will break all known speed records and you should be able to get much more than 2OA, Connor and Tippett.
    This is very wise advice. Be open with the person that you are trading. Tell them you are interested in trading 1OA... but you are going to wait and see if he lands with Crosby or McDavid, in which case you will likely keep him... thus building up the value.

    The only risk I see with this is that the other owner is willing to take the 1/16 or 2/16 chance that Edmonton or Pittsburgh win the lottery and that is why he is willing to part with Connor before the second lottery.
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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    3-for-1 trades are all about quality over replacement level.
    Let's give the guys in question all a generic hockey score out of 100.
    *Based on potential

    96* Lafreniere
    88* Byfield
    82 Connor
    73 Tippett

    To really understand the value here, one has to really look at what the player represents above "replacement value".

    In a 12-team league starting 2C/2LW/2RW... that's 72 forwards in play... and the fringe/waiver forward might have a score of 77.
    In which case, the player values are:

    +19 Lafreniere
    +11 Byfield
    +5 Connor
    -4 Tippett (so you wouldn't even want him).
    In this case, Lafreniere at +19 is the better side over the +16 of Byfield/Connor.

    In a 12-team league with 3C/3LW/3RW starting, that's 108 forwards in play... and fringe/waiver value for forward might be 72.
    +24 Lafreniere
    +16 Byfield
    +10 Connor
    +1 Tippett
    We can see now that Byfield/Connor/Tippet is +27... slightly better than Laf.

    In a 12-team league with 4C/4LW/4RW in play... fringe/waiver value might be 68.
    +28 Lafreniere
    +20 Byfield
    +14 Connor
    +5 Tippett
    Here, Byfield/Connor/Tippet is +39 and really runs away from +28 Lafreniere.


    That's how the evaluation needs to go.
    But it is up to the individual fantasy person to:
    i) PEG THE VALUES OF PIECES IN PLAY, and
    ii) DETERMINE THE FRINGE/WAIVER VALUE

    Do that.
    Do the math.
    It'll tell you which side is better.

    Most 12-team dynasties are at least 3/3/3 at the forward slots... and I like the Byfield/Connor/Tippett side if you are building for future.
    There is always ONE or TWO established teams that have depth and are collecting elite talent like Laf.
    Nothing wrong with moving your piece there... just be sure that when your team will peak (3-5 years w/Byfield & Tippett), they will be falling.

    Good luck.
    Welcome to the forums.

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Nice to meet you gents, and thank you all for the advice. This league is a 4c/4lw/4rw start league, so depth can be hard to come by. I had already told him I'd wait until after the second lottery for the reasons mentioned, but had placed moving the 1 o.a. right at the value mentioned above. He seemed comfortable waiting until the second draft, but if he moves on I would also be fine holding onto laf.

    Cheers
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    In a league that deep, I'd accept 2nd O.A., Kyle Connor and Owen Tippet for 1 O.A, regardless of where Laf ends up.

    Especially knowing FOW is a category, you are weak at C, and at LW you have: B.Tkachuk, M.Tkachuk, Pacioretti and Vrana

    My guess is that there is a premium on Cs (which is common in leagues that count FOWs, and would explain why that's your biggest whole - along with goalies)

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Welcome to the forums.

    The one thing I will point out as well, when it comes to these 1 out, 3 in type trades is that it's normally more than just that because I assume you have to drop pieces to make room for the incoming players.
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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    I would take this trade in the next 10 minutes. There’s no promise that “generational” Lafreniere is better for his career than Byfield. (For the next 2 years?? Sure - it for the next 2 years, Connor is probably best of this bunch anyway - so the deal is good for now, and good for later.)
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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    3-for-1 trades are all about quality over replacement level.
    Let's give the guys in question all a generic hockey score out of 100.
    *Based on potential

    96* Lafreniere
    88* Byfield
    82 Connor
    73 Tippett

    To really understand the value here, one has to really look at what the player represents above "replacement value".

    In a 12-team league starting 2C/2LW/2RW... that's 72 forwards in play... and the fringe/waiver forward might have a score of 77.
    In which case, the player values are:

    +19 Lafreniere
    +11 Byfield
    +5 Connor
    -4 Tippett (so you wouldn't even want him).
    In this case, Lafreniere at +19 is the better side over the +16 of Byfield/Connor.

    In a 12-team league with 3C/3LW/3RW starting, that's 108 forwards in play... and fringe/waiver value for forward might be 72.
    +24 Lafreniere
    +16 Byfield
    +10 Connor
    +1 Tippett
    We can see now that Byfield/Connor/Tippet is +27... slightly better than Laf.

    In a 12-team league with 4C/4LW/4RW in play... fringe/waiver value might be 68.
    +28 Lafreniere
    +20 Byfield
    +14 Connor
    +5 Tippett
    Here, Byfield/Connor/Tippet is +39 and really runs away from +28 Lafreniere.


    That's how the evaluation needs to go.
    But it is up to the individual fantasy person to:
    i) PEG THE VALUES OF PIECES IN PLAY, and
    ii) DETERMINE THE FRINGE/WAIVER VALUE

    Do that.
    Do the math.
    It'll tell you which side is better.

    Most 12-team dynasties are at least 3/3/3 at the forward slots... and I like the Byfield/Connor/Tippett side if you are building for future.
    There is always ONE or TWO established teams that have depth and are collecting elite talent like Laf.
    Nothing wrong with moving your piece there... just be sure that when your team will peak (3-5 years w/Byfield & Tippett), they will be falling.

    Good luck.
    Welcome to the forums.
    This is a very good post. One extra thing to consider is roster flexibility based on these factors:
    - Start frequency, as depth helps more in daily starts. If you have no positional games maximums, you can get a lot of man-games over your opponents, to get a big advantage.
    - Positional flexibility, as having guys who can slot in different places helps cover for injuries or schedule irregularities.
    - Minor eligibility, if you have the ability to move players up & down.

    Regarding the deal itself, I'd take it. Lafreniere & Byfeld are pretty close, and the other two guys you are getting are both well regarded, and one has basically 0 bust risk, since Connor is playing well in the NHL.
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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Welcome to the forums.

    The one thing I will point out as well, when it comes to these 1 out, 3 in type trades is that it's normally more than just that because I assume you have to drop pieces to make room for the incoming players.
    I'd likely be dropping Howden and Dzingle, or somewhere in that range of value. I'd stash byfield/tippet in the minors until I could trade someone else for something.

    Thanks!
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    This is a very good post. One extra thing to consider is roster flexibility based on these factors:
    - Start frequency, as depth helps more in daily starts. If you have no positional games maximums, you can get a lot of man-games over your opponents, to get a big advantage.
    - Positional flexibility, as having guys who can slot in different places helps cover for injuries or schedule irregularities.
    - Minor eligibility, if you have the ability to move players up & down.

    Regarding the deal itself, I'd take it. Lafreniere & Byfeld are pretty close, and the other two guys you are getting are both well regarded, and one has basically 0 bust risk, since Connor is playing well in the NHL.
    We have unlimited moves between Minors and Active Roster as long as the player meets the requirements. That is an interesting angle to consider, very true.
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Brad View Post
    I would take this trade in the next 10 minutes. There’s no promise that “generational” Lafreniere is better for his career than Byfield. (For the next 2 years?? Sure - it for the next 2 years, Connor is probably best of this bunch anyway - so the deal is good for now, and good for later.)
    That's a great point, in terms of timing
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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    Default Re: 2020 1st OA for 2nd OA+

    There is definitely a premium on centers in my league. I actually have one of the stronger goalie line ups, as most cary 3-4 and that zaps the available talent
    Dynasty Cats League: G A ESP STP SOG FOW HITS BLKS PIMS/GAA SVS SV% GPT3 (winsx2 +OT/S.O losses+shutouts)
    C:Matthews Seguin E.Lindholm Marchessault
    LW:B.Tkachuk K.Connor Vrana Hyman Iafallo Jones Milano
    RW:Kucherov M. Tkachuk Bjrokstrand Burakovsky Atkinson Bratt C.Stephenson
    D: OEL Pelech Murphy Cernak Dunn Maatta Gryzyleck M.Roy Vatanen
    G: Blackwood Korpisalo Campbell Kahkonen Petersen
    M: Byfield Lundell N.Roberston Kyrou Tomasino Pelletier Jenik Norris N.Foote Forester Nybeck Abramov Tracey Durzi Mahura Valimaki E. Andrae P.O. Joseph Ahcan

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