Seth Jones vs Roman Josi

[chuckcouples]

I just joined a dynasty league with soon to be 24 teams. We are having an expansion draft this summer where we can only protect 20 players (max 3 goalies). Each team will be losing 7 skaters and a goalie in the expansion draft but that's not really relevant to my question.

It's a head to head points league that has a weighted scoring system. G=4, A=2, +/=1, SOG=0.5, PPP=1, SHP=2, Hits=0.5, Blocks=0.5, FOW=0.1. We use the NHL AAV and the NHL+10% Salary Cap. Which dman do you prefer?


Seth Jones - This season he has 4.44 fantasy points per game and next season he has a salary of $5,4000,000

Or

Roman Josi - This season he has 6.04 fantasy points per game and next season he has a salary of $9,059,000

The trade offer I received was Jones + Tyler Johnson for Roman Josi and I am not sure if I should be accepting it.

My team - we dress 3 C, 6W, 3 F, 6D and 2G

C: P Bergeron, G Landeskog, N Kadri, L Couture, C Sissons, J Benn
W: B Marchand, C Atkinson, A Watson, T Jost, Y Gourde, R Panik
D: R Josi, M Giordano, T Krug, C McAvoy, E Cernak, J McCabe
G: A Raanta, P Mrazek, A Stalock

Prospects of note
F: B Lizotte, M Stephens, D Gabrell, B Tracey, M Teply, A Campbell, Z MacEwen
D: M Anderson, L Thomson, J McIsaac, Y Zamula, L Carlsson, D Samorukov
G: UP Luukkonen, L Dostal,

[Axeman33]

A couple questions. Are you on cap trouble if you keep Josi or are you already thinking ahead with him on your roster? Where did Josi rank when compared to other D in your league?

[BlackhawksFan]

Yeah. If the new contract of Josi puts you in a bind, it's not horrible. But, would you have to drop anyone since it is 2 for 1? Also, that is an additional decision to make of who to protect or not acquiring two players. Johnson and Jones would total around 10.5m as well of the top of my head, correct?

If you can afford him, keep Josi.

Seems like the trade hurts in more ways than helps imo.

[Rocky71]

Could he do better than Tyler Johnson?

[chuckcouples]

Fantrax tells me I have $100,000 in cap space right now. That does include new contracts for Josi, Krug, or Cernak. Those 3 will probably add $8M to my payroll for next season and I think our cap is coming down by about 4%. I have not done my spreadsheet for my likely roster for next season to see the actual numbers.

[stevegamer]

Since this is a cap hit league, I think Tyler Johnson is a guy you'd likely cut to get cap compliant, so it really comes down to if you can fit Josi in. He'd certainly not be protected.

So I guess, the first thing is do you think that way about Johnson as well?

[chuckcouples]

I do feel that way which is why my question is Jones at $5.4M for each of the next 2 seasons or Josi at 9.059M?

Johnson or anything else I can get in the trade will likely be left unprotected on our expansion draft. That means the only value to him is that my 27th best player will be my first spare after the expansion draft instead of my 28th best player.

[stevegamer]

I agree unless you could get a minor pick upgrade - you would of course be able to keep that.

Are there other teams in dire cap trouble? I think I'd want Jones, just to ease your cap woes, but try and get something pick order related, as you can point out that Johnson is essentially gone in expansion. If you could get some not very exciting prospect or depth player that was cheap, that would be better.

[chuckcouples]

I have had the chance to do a bit more research. Based on my math and my contract estimates for my free agents, I am expecting a salary for my team of $110,000,000 with Josi on the roster. I think our salary cap is going to be in the $90M - $95M range.

I will probably make Jamie Benn available in the expansion draft which would reduce that number by $9.5M. The other $5M to $10M would take some work to save but it should be doable. If I get rid of Jamie Benn, I should be able to get under the salary cap even with Roman Josi.

The 2nd piece of information is here are the dmen point totals from last season:

1. Roman Josi - 417
2. John Carlson - 394
3. Alex Pietrangelo - 351.5
4. Neal Pionk - 347
5. Victor Hedman - 344
6. Shea Weber - 323.5
7. Darnell Nurse - 320.5
8. Kris Letang - 317.5
9. Brent Burns - 317
10. Jeff Petry - 313
...
37. Seth Jones - 248.5

Fantasy Points per game

1. Dougie Hamilton - 6.27
2. Roman Josi - 6.04
3. Jon Carlson - 5.71
4. Victor Hedman - 5.21
5. Kris Letang - 5.2
...
18. Seth Jones - 4.44

Does anyone expect Roman Josi to play at a 77 point pace next year?

[stevegamer]

I don't expect that Josi to do that pace again. 60+, sure that's possible. Jones is ahead in FP/G per million salary, but he's not an iron man. How close were they the year before?

Benn is interesting in that he has value in cap leagues, depending on the set up. He may get through expansion due to the contract size, though.

[Axeman33]

For me, you're shaving cap if you consider Jones vs Josi, but you're also shaving points. Let's say for argument sake that Jones is much better than last year (which I do believe) and Josi regresses a bit (which isn't out of the question either), I still see Josi as the better option but is he worth the difference in the cap hit.

The whole Tyler Johnson part doesn't make any sense to me at all, unless that's simply a cap move on his part to fit Josi in. If it's me, and I am considering this deal, there's no way I want Tyler Johnson and if you are doing him a favor to help his cap situation to improve his roster, I'd be looking for another sweetner. You're doing him two favors and he's doing you none. He's getting the best player in the deal, and you're helping him do it by taking a bad contract off his hands. I'd expect to be compensated for that, be it with a solid pick coming your way. In the end, this deal really boils down to Josi vs Jones and I'd rather pay the extra cap and keep Josi.

[Southpaw20]

Yes, can't out it any better than Axeman. Josi all the way

[chuckcouples]

He has offered to replace Tyler Johnson with Brandon Tanev. Tanev has a $3.5M salary and earned 4.1 points per game last year which is more than Johnson for $1.5M cheaper.

[BlackhawksFan]

He has offered to replace Tyler Johnson with Brandon Tanev. Tanev has a $3.5M salary and earned 4.1 points per game last year which is more than Johnson for $1.5M cheaper.

No for me. You still have to pick a player to drop and/or leave unprotected. Are prospects counted toward salary cap? Do they need to be protected? If not, his "throw in piece" needs to be a pick or prospect that can be beneficial to you. Just throwing in a player by him, whether it be Johnson, Tanev, or whoever is just more or a cap dump for him to afford Josi. It does you absolutely no good in any way unless you plan on keeping that player. Hence the need for a good draft pick or prospect. Or, it needs to be two players that are useful to you in the scoring categories and the cap hit department you plan on keeping. The comment from Axeman sums it up perfectly.

- - - Updated - - -

For me, you're shaving cap if you consider Jones vs Josi, but you're also shaving points. Let's say for argument sake that Jones is much better than last year (which I do believe) and Josi regresses a bit (which isn't out of the question either), I still see Josi as the better option but is he worth the difference in the cap hit.

The whole Tyler Johnson part doesn't make any sense to me at all, unless that's simply a cap move on his part to fit Josi in. If it's me, and I am considering this deal, there's no way I want Tyler Johnson and if you are doing him a favor to help his cap situation to improve his roster, I'd be looking for another sweetner. You're doing him two favors and he's doing you none. He's getting the best player in the deal, and you're helping him do it by taking a bad contract off his hands. I'd expect to be compensated for that, be it with a solid pick coming your way. In the end, this deal really boils down to Josi vs Jones and I'd rather pay the extra cap and keep Josi.

This 100% needs to be thought of and applied.

[Bubba55]

I think we are zeroing in on the right answer. Moving Josi for Jones to save some CAP is absolutely OK. BUT, I'm not handing Josi to the other GM unless I get more. For you, the more that makes the most sense is a decent pick and/or a decent prospect. Taking on guys like Johnson or Tanev or other throw ins just makes no sense. Go for the pick or the prospect. If the other guy doesn't like it, walk away, because he is not, as Axe already pointed out, doing you any favors.