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Thread: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

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    Default Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    It has taken me a few days to digest what happened Friday, but help is needed to solve a Draft Lottery issue in my 12 team keeper league. But it will require some reading.

    For round 1 of our draft every year we follow what the Draft Lottery does in terms of where our seeds end up. Usually though, seeds 7-12 cannot move to #1. Since we are a 12 team league, if a team from seed 13-15 moves up, we just skip them.

    Given how things ended this year we made it so we are just fully following the Draft Lottery so any team could move to #1. Prior to the lottery I sent something like this out to our league to show everyone their odds (as I do every year):

    Det - Team A
    Ott - Team B
    SJ(Ott) - Team C
    LA - Team D
    Ana - Team E
    NJ - Team F
    Buf - Team G
    8th (Mon) - Team H
    9th (Chi) - Team I
    10th (Ari) - Team J
    11th (Min) - Team K
    12th (Wpg) - Team L

    I will readily admit I clearly did not put enough time into thinking of all of the possibilities here but obviously given the result of Friday night, we are in a bit of a pickle.


    Option 1
    Technically....I believe the 12th spot won the lottery....so does that mean our 12 seed (ie our 1st place team) gets #1 this year?

    Option 2
    Or because every year I say "we follow what the NHL does" .... do we now follow this second draw and assign the Teams H to L the team they were paired with and that team's "play in" round opponent? So it would be....

    Mon/Pit - Team H
    Chi/Edm - Team I
    Ari/Nas - Team J
    Min/Van - Team K
    Wpg/Cgy - Team L

    This leaves the chance that NYI/Fla or CBJ/Tor will eventually win the Lottery, in which case (as mentioned earlier), we would just skip that team.

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    I highly recommend reading Dobber's Ramblings that includes Steve Laidlaw's tweet . It's a practically perfect way to do this, including using a state/provincial lottery to handle that 2nd draw, so there's no issue with assumed fairness.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1 backup G, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, Carlson, DeAngelo, Letang, Makar
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, MacKinnon
    F3: Stamkos, Point, JT Miller
    F4: Bertuzzi, Tavares, Seguin

    Bench:
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    D: Barrie, M Reilly, Heiskanen, Klingberg, Morissey, Weegar
    F: Bailey, Benn, Guentzel, Johnsson, Labanc, Mikheyev, Necas
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    I would say Option 1 is NOT an option because the NHL did not officially announce that the team with the 12th highest odds was the team that was selected as the place holder.

    For this reason and because your rules state that "we follow what the NHL does", Option 2 is the choice that makes sense to me. It follows the rules that you both established for this year and have used in previous years.

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I would say Option 1 is NOT an option because the NHL did not officially announce that the team with the 12th highest odds was the team that was selected as the place holder.

    For this reason and because your rules state that "we follow what the NHL does", Option 2 is the choice that makes sense to me. It follows the rules that you both established for this year and have used in previous years.
    Hmmmmmmmm I did not realize that! I just remember reading on Twitter that it was the 12th seed. That would pretty much solve it for me.

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    I had the very same thought as Chuck. It can't be no1 for the mentioned reason, so it has to be no2 (or some other scenario but I'm still thinking about a better one - nothing has come to my mind so far though...)

    Edit: Another option that's actually also pretty close to what the NHl does: once the play-ins are history, you simply assign each team ranked 8th to 12th in your league to one NHL-team that didn't make it in the actual playoffs. Kind of like your option 2, but you could also make the owners pick the NHL team that they want to link their destiny to which could be a fun wrinkle to the whole thing.
    12 team H2H dynasty
    G, A, PIM, PPP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK
    W, GAA, SV, SV%, SHO
    C,C,C,LW,LW,LW,RW,RW,RW,D,D,D,D,D,Util,Util,G,G,6x BN,5xIR+


    C: Eichel, Zibanejad, Scheifele, Hischier, Cizikas
    LW: Draisaitl(C), B.Tkachuk
    LW/RW: M.Tkachuk, Meier, N.Foligno(C)
    RW: Pastrnak, R.Strome(C), Backlund(C)
    D: Carlson, Josi, Giordano, Nurse, Pulock, McAvoy, Muzzin, Cernak
    G: Gibson, Rittich, Crawford
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    Farm (Skaters: Eligible until 123 NHL games played / Goalies: 41 games)
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    D: B.Byram, N.Hague, L.Stanley
    G: A.Nedeljkovic, C.Petersen

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by Wotan View Post
    I had the very same thought as Chuck. It can't be no1 for the mentioned reason, so it has to be no2 (or some other scenario but I'm still thinking about a better one - nothing has come to my mind so far though...)
    There was a point when I debated the following....

    Yahoo gave 1st place to the teams in 1st at the end of the regular season. So since we're a non money league I couldn't really find any reason NOT to award this team (who was the 12th seed in our draft lottery) an asterisk victory in our keeper league. But then once this happened, and once I heard it was the 12th seeded ball that won, I debated making the guy choose between drafting 1st overall and having an asterisk victory on the trophy.

    But you guys debunked that so.....

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I would say Option 1 is NOT an option because the NHL did not officially announce that the team with the 12th highest odds was the team that was selected as the place holder.

    For this reason and because your rules state that "we follow what the NHL does", Option 2 is the choice that makes sense to me. It follows the rules that you both established for this year and have used in previous years.
    https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-dr...?tid=277764372

    The winning placeholder, designated Team E, had a 2.5 percent chance to be assigned the No. 1 pick, the 12th-best odds among the 15 entries.

    (Why you changed your rules, though, to allow any team to get the 1st pick, is absolutely baffling)

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    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post

    (Why you changed your rules, though, to allow any team to get the 1st pick, is absolutely baffling)
    Because many teams made pushes to try to make playoffs/win this year and traded away picks to do so. It kind of sucks for them because they get absolutely nothing for making these deals.

    Changing the rules was a small breadcrumb for them.

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I would say Option 1 is NOT an option because the NHL did not officially announce that the team with the 12th highest odds was the team that was selected as the place holder.

    For this reason and because your rules state that "we follow what the NHL does", Option 2 is the choice that makes sense to me. It follows the rules that you both established for this year and have used in previous years.
    Found something on the contrary....

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour..._frxfVqoCh1vhQ

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    I misspoke. The NHL said that the placeholder team with the 12th highest odds won the lottery. The NHL did not say that the placeholder team with the 12th highest odds was actually the team with the 12th worst record because that was not the case. Placeholder teams with odds 8 - 15 were not associated with any actual team. They were strictly placeholders. All of the play-in losers have the same odds of getting any of the lottery picks won by the placeholders teams.

    This was the NHL rule and your league has historically followed the NHL rule so that is what I would do. Your choice will depend on whether you want to follow the historical precedent or the one off email you sent out that contained differences from your existing league rules. I would do a draft after the play-in rounds are over and before the 2nd lottery draft. Each of your 5 playoff teams can pick one of the 8 play-in losers. Give the best team first choice and the 2nd best team 2nd choice and so on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    There was a point when I debated the following....

    Yahoo gave 1st place to the teams in 1st at the end of the regular season. So since we're a non money league I couldn't really find any reason NOT to award this team (who was the 12th seed in our draft lottery) an asterisk victory in our keeper league. But then once this happened, and once I heard it was the 12th seeded ball that won, I debated making the guy choose between drafting 1st overall and having an asterisk victory on the trophy.

    But you guys debunked that so.....
    Why would you have an asterisk? It's a victory, albeit in unusual circumstances. It's not like anyone in the league won't remember this year. You can add details on your league website or something, but it's not worth the whole your victory doesn't count thing, like they did with Roger Maris' 61 homers.

    The real issue is that you need to figure out how to undo the screw-up of your first email, since not all placeholder teams were in it, but that may be too hard to do. Unfortunately I missed that part when I first posted. I think that using option 1 can work here since we know which placeholder slot won - be happy it wasn't 'none of the above'.

    Option 2 works as well.

    Put it to a league vote to resolve this.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1 backup G, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, Carlson, DeAngelo, Letang, Makar
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, MacKinnon
    F3: Stamkos, Point, JT Miller
    F4: Bertuzzi, Tavares, Seguin

    Bench:
    G:
    D: Barrie, M Reilly, Heiskanen, Klingberg, Morissey, Weegar
    F: Bailey, Benn, Guentzel, Johnsson, Labanc, Mikheyev, Necas
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Why would you have an asterisk? It's a victory, albeit in unusual circumstances. It's not like anyone in the league won't remember this year. You can add details on your league website or something, but it's not worth the whole your victory doesn't count thing, like they did with Roger Maris' 61 homers.

    The real issue is that you need to figure out how to undo the screw-up of your first email, since not all placeholder teams were in it, but that may be too hard to do. Unfortunately I missed that part when I first posted. I think that using option 1 can work here since we know which placeholder slot won - be happy it wasn't 'none of the above'.

    Option 2 works as well.

    Put it to a league vote to resolve this.
    Asterisk because it's a H2H league and there were no playoffs. It would be much different if it were roto... But I'd likely still go the asterisk route haha

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I misspoke. The NHL said that the placeholder team with the 12th highest odds won the lottery. The NHL did not say that the placeholder team with the 12th highest odds was actually the team with the 12th worst record because that was not the case. Placeholder teams with odds 8 - 15 were not associated with any actual team. They were strictly placeholders. All of the play-in losers have the same odds of getting any of the lottery picks won by the placeholders teams.

    This was the NHL rule and your league has historically followed the NHL rule so that is what I would do. Your choice will depend on whether you want to follow the historical precedent or the one off email you sent out that contained differences from your existing league rules. I would do a draft after the play-in rounds are over and before the 2nd lottery draft. Each of your 5 playoff teams can pick one of the 8 play-in losers. Give the best team first choice and the 2nd best team 2nd choice and so on.
    Teams were ranked based on winning percentage. And the 12th ranked team (2.5%) won the lotto. So I don't know how you can't give the pick to the 12th ranked team in this league.

    The NHL confirms 12th ranked team won the lotto at the link I posed above. Note that only the 12th ranked team had a 2.5% chance.

    If you are following the first lottery, it's gotta be based on the actual results, IMO

    EDIT: as per NHL, here are the 2020 draft lottery odds (https://www.nhl.com/news/2020-nhl-dr...re/c-317026602)

    1 Detroit Red Wings (.275) -- 18.5 percent chance for No. 1 pick
    2 Ottawa Senators (.437) -- 13.5 percent
    3 Ottawa Senators (from San Jose Sharks, .450) -- 11.5 percent
    4 Los Angeles Kings (.457) -- 9.5 percent
    5 Anaheim Ducks (.472) -- 8.5 percent
    6 New Jersey Devils (.493) -- 7.5 percent
    7 Buffalo Sabres (.493) -- 6.5 percent
    8 Qualifier Team A -- 6.0 percent
    9 Qualifier Team B -- 5.0 percent
    10 Qualifier Team C -- 3.5 percent
    11 Qualifier Team D -- 3.0 percent
    12 Qualifier Team E -- 2.5 percent - WINNING PICK
    13 Qualifier Team F -- 2.0 percent
    14 Qualifier Team G -- 1.5 percent
    15 Qualifier Team H -- 1.0 percent

    It seem clear (to me, anyways) from the original post that 13 through 15 spots are ignored. So Team 12 wins the lottery. That's the 1st place team in the OP's league. Just because the placeholder isn't paired with a specific team is irrelevant. If that's the logic being used, then you are basically saying the first place team in this league had zero chance to win the lottery. And the OP makes it clear that that the intention was for all 12 teams to have a shot at winning it! Just my interpretation though...

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    Default Re: Draft Lottery Dilemma - REP

    Option 1. Seems cut and dry. You included 12 teams, and the 12th seed won. Done and done.

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