Trump thread and the 2020 election

[Canucks_fan18]

I decide not to throw a brick out of the window. By miracle I can send my kid to college. He's studing in engineering. I can't pay for all of it because he has a brother, he needs to take student loans. He gets good grades, he graduates. Start looking for an internship, apply everywhere, couple of interview. Weirdly enough he can't get a good job but his fellow classmates all have really good jobs. I learn that they all have one or more family members well placed in high-end compagnies, funny coincidence Im thinking. So he's now stuck with 40 000$ of loans with a low paid job while his friends have 0$ in loans and already well-placed.

How is that a fair start? I call that elitism. And I havent touch the race subject.

Have a good day

"Jeff Bezos was born on January 12, 1964, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to a teenage mother, Jacklyn Gise Jorgensen, and his biological father, Ted Jorgensen. The Jorgensens were married less than a year. When Bezos was 4 years old, his mother remarried Mike Bezos, a Cuban immigrant."

Yup only elitist's can amount to anything...

[forumname]

"Jeff Bezos was born on January 12, 1964, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to a teenage mother, Jacklyn Gise Jorgensen, and his biological father, Ted Jorgensen. The Jorgensens were married less than a year. When Bezos was 4 years old, his mother remarried Mike Bezos, a Cuban immigrant."

Yup only elitist's can amount to anything...

That's a bit of a cherry-pick. Sure there are outliers, but you can't honestly believe we all have the same opportunities (I'm not saying we could/should, but we certainly don't)

[Auston'sWilly]

#sayhisname

[Wonko]

I agree it will be a hard long road, but it is only going to get worse with Trump in charge. He sows division. It is how he got elected and he continues to run on that mandate. Small strides can and will be made with a Biden Presidency.

[Wonko]

Here is what I feel is a great podcast on racism in America if anyone is interested.


https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=338792357441234

[Auston'sWilly]

[Axeman33]

No one says it better than Weird Al.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinio...?smid=fb-share

[Wonko]

No one says it better than Weird Al.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinio...?smid=fb-share

That was quite fun

[forumname]

Very relevant, thank you for your contribution.

[Dr.Brad]

Here’s the problem in a nutshell: We (mostly) all want to have the political middle-ground reappear. The PROBLEM is that Trump supporters feel they ARE nearer to the middle, and Biden and Democrats are radical. Biden supporters feel HE’S the moderate middle, and Trump is the radical. So what if neither side is right? I just hope USA can hold an election without 1500 lawyers destroying democracy after Nov. 3rd.

[doulos]

As long as both sides are willing to count all the votes, there's no need for lawyers.

[Rylant]

"Jeff Bezos was born on January 12, 1964, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to a teenage mother, Jacklyn Gise Jorgensen, and his biological father, Ted Jorgensen. The Jorgensens were married less than a year. When Bezos was 4 years old, his mother remarried Mike Bezos, a Cuban immigrant."

Yup only elitist's can amount to anything...

Right. AND Jay-Z and Lebron James are both multi-millionaires. Clearly, systemic racism is a hoax...

Rylant

[Daydream Nation]

I found this from Nate Silver and 538 encouraging:

President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.

If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.

At a time when Trump desperately needed a boost, the debate probably didn’t help him either — it may have hurt him. Every scientific poll we’ve seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones.

That includes the poll FiveThirtyEight conducted with Ipsos, which surveyed the same group of voters before and after the debate. While the poll didn’t show a massive swing — most voters stuck to their initial preferences — more voters did rate Biden’s performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls.

Now, I’m not predicting this will happen, but if Biden’s national lead were to expand to 9 or 10 points, which is consistent with the sorts of polling bounces we’ve seen in the past for candidates who were perceived to win debates — especially challengers debating an incumbent for the first time — Trump’s situation could become quite desperate.

To be clear, none of this means that Trump’s chances are kaput. As of this writing, our forecast still gives him around a 21 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That’s not great, but it’s a lot better than zero.

But it’s possible Trump’s chances may decline further after post-debate polling begins to roll into our forecast. Furthermore, the mere passage of time helps Biden in our model, because every day that Trump doesn’t gain ground is a day when his fate becomes slightly more sealed. (Lots of people have already voted!) Case in point: In an election held today — Trump has no more time to make up ground — his chances would be 9 percent, not 21 percent, according to our forecast.

Then again, there are some possibilities that our model doesn’t account for, and they have become more pertinent after Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power and declined to commit to respecting the election results. As we wrote when launching the forecast:

We assume that there are reasonable efforts to allow eligible citizens to vote and to count all legal ballots, and that electors are awarded to the popular-vote winner in each state. The model also does not account for the possibility of extraconstitutional shenanigans by Trump or by anyone else, such as trying to prevent mail ballots from being counted.

[doulos]

Encouraging, but that last paragraph is key.

[als_revenge]

@Daydream Nation - if you enjoy 538 Forecasting, The Economist put up a model yesterday. I believe it will be updated on an ongoing basis. It gives odds for White House, House and Senate.
https://projects.economist.com/us-20...erm=2020-09-30
As of today, GOP chances for control of:
President: 12%
House: 2%
Senate: 31%

I haven't read the methodology, I'm just posting in the event this stuff is up your alley.