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Thread: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

  1. #1
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    Question How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    So, Carlson's last few years have been pretty amazing. How long do you guys see this continuing? Is it a concern to anyone that the PP/top line dynamic changes as the whole team (top guys) continue to get closer and closer to the end of their productive years (a la San Jose), or are they still a machine for a few more years? What are your predictions for him going forward?
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

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    Default Re: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    There's two major routes that could happen here:

    1. The Washington PP remains electric with Ovechkin re-signing an extension during/after the 2020-2021 season. As long as Ovechkin's back, Carlson is a 70-80pt defenseman for the next 2-3 seasons.
    2. Ovechkin gets out-of-shape during this off-season stretch, especially if it gets canceled. Dedicates himself towards Russia for 2022 Olympics, doesn't re-sign with Washington. Calls it an NHL career after 2020-2021 season. Carlson 55-65pts there on.

    There's at least 10-15pts that are tied to OV's goal-scoring.
    Personally, I'd probably sell him high right now.
    There's just to many changing/aging pieces on any team, as you hint at.

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    Default Re: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    There's two major routes that could happen here:

    1. The Washington PP remains electric with Ovechkin re-signing an extension during/after the 2020-2021 season. As long as Ovechkin's back, Carlson is a 70-80pt defenseman.
    2. Ovechkin gets out-of-shape during this off-season stretch, especially if it gets canceled. Dedicates himself towards Russia for 2022 Olympics, doesn't re-sign with Washington. Calls it an NHL career after 2020-2021 season. Carlson 55-65pts there on.

    There's at least 10-15pts that are tied to OV's goal-scoring.
    Personally, I'd probably sell him high right now.
    There's just to many changing/aging pieces on any team, as you hint at.
    Thanks for this. Yeah, the team is firing on all cylinders so it makes me wonder what happens when one cylinder isn't working well anymore (or leaves).The piece you said about the three-year elite window was very enlightening too!

    GM in my league is looking to sell him, but at the price of a young keeper and a pick upgrade, I think I'll hold. I've got my keepers nicely concentrated in a similar age bracket now (22,22,22,23,23,26). Also a fun factor is my two favourite teams are the Leafs and the Flames, so it's pretty cool having the two best players on my two favourite teams.
    12 Team Keep 6: G/A:1 W/SO:2
    C - McDavid, Matthews, Schiefele
    LW - Draisaitl, Fiala, Meier
    RW - ​​Marner, Barzal, Zuccarello
    D - Dahlin, Morrissey, Dunn, Matheson
    G - Skinner
    B - Marchessault, Caufield, Teravainen, McCann, Montour, Jones, Saros

    12 Team Keep 10 (& 5 Minors)
    : G/A/OTL:1 W:2 SO:3
    '24 Picks (16 Rounds) - 1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,3,3,5,5,6,6
    F - ​McDavid, Rantanen, Point, Aho, Nylander, M. Tkachuk, Guentzel, MacKinnon, Pavelski, Duchene, Farabee, Henrique
    D - Bouchard, Dobson, Matheson, Andersson, Letang
    G - Vasilevskiy, Markstrom
    B - Joseph, Schenn, Nyqvist, Roslovic, Duclair, S. Jones, Korpisalo, Quick, Rittich
    M - Cooley, Michkov, Rossi, Hutson, Mateychuk

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    Default Re: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    I see Ovechkin staying on long enough to try to catch Gretzky's goal record. I see OV being highly motivated to go down officially as the greatest goal scorer of all time. He's 188 behind so that would take most likely 5 more seasons to give himself a chance. At that time Carlson will still be only 35. I would hold on to him if I were you.

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    Default Re: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    I agree that moving Carlson now is a Sell high opportunity. The core in Washington is aging significantly and that includes Carlson. I'd shop him hard and see what happens. You might be surprised at the return. Either way, your in the drivers seat. I see possibly one more good year if the stars align, but I think the numbers are more likely to come down a bit next year, and after that, the trend only continues. Sell high.
    14 Team Roto; Keep 25; 12 F, 6 D, 2 G; 10 Farm; 5 Bench; 5 IR;

    Salary Cap - 102.5 Mil

    Scoring Cats: G, A, Pts, PIM, Hits, BS, SOG, F Points, D Points; Win+Ties+SO, GAA, SV%

    Keepers

    F: Aho, Larkin, DeBrincat, Vrana, Bennett, Scheifele, Kakko,Tolvanen, McBain,

    D: Heiskanen, Fox, Toews, Lundqvist

    G: Swayman, Andersen, Copley

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    F: Gaudreau, Terravainen, Puljujarvi, Kravstov, Zary

    D: Brannstrom, Cernak, Alexeyev

    G: Korpisalo, Merzlikins

    FARM: Rossi, Berggren, Holtz, Savoie, Clarke, Tarasov, Wolf

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    Default Re: How Long Can Carlson Keep This Up? Prediction Time!

    I'd hold Carlson, and I think that he stays very good for a while, not at this level.

    1. Ovechkin is the greatest pure goal scorer in NHL history. Having missed time due to management/labor issues and pandemics, he's reasonably on pace to catch Gretzky's thought to be unbreakable record in an era of lower goal scoring overall. I'll bet on him hanging around until he can't. Playing for Russia may happen, but we don't know how things are going to shake out, schedule wise.

    2. Carlson is 30. That's not too old. It may be too old to get top value back, and you can try for that, but I suspect you will find that since he's hit 30, he's decrepit and going to fall off the cliff any day now.

    If you can get a return you're happy with, make a deal, if not don't. It's that simple, just like always.
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