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Thread: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

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    Question Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    For the top team in my sig, which first year NHLer would you draft first with the intention of them becoming a keeper? I'll likely end up drafting one rookie sooner than I ought to in my Keep 6 where I intentionally have a couple of pretty replaceable keepers (RNH & Forsberg) in case a great trade offer comes up (very active league) or I draft a real beauty (I've got loads of high picks next season).

    Assuming both are available to me when I get my chance, do you think the relative proven-ness of Kaprizov outdoes the top-end potential of Lafreniere? Or are they both awesome enough that if I get one in the first round I should grab the other in the second and hope to keep them both if they both pan out?

    I took Jack Hughes super high in last year's draft and got burned, but I'm willing to try my "one-top-rookie-early" strategy at least one more year before I write it off for good, haha.
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Theres rarely a guarantee when drafting a rookie no matter where hes ranked in prospect rankings. It's no different with Lafreniere or Kaprizov. No guarantee either wont disappoint in year one but unless you're in a one year league, you have to temper your expectations in year one.

    Personally I prefer Lafreniere over Kaprizov.


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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Might be still little too early for that comparison. Only because we don't know which team Lafreniere will get drafted by. Also Kaprizov doesn't exactly have a top end centre to play with in Minnesota. That could change during free agency.

    Though draft either player would be a good move.

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Lafreniere


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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    The only fly I see in your Lafreniere and Kaprizov plan, is Brady Tkachuk. Even without his multi-cat value that ISN’T what your league counts, Brady may outscore both of your draft-eligible guys over the next 2 years. Don’t drop him without due consideration.
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    C- Malkin, Monahan, Cirelli
    LW- Connor, Pacioretty, NRitchie
    RW- MTkachuk, AJohnsson, Chytil
    F- Kunin, Haula, Kuraly
    D- EKarlsson, Hanifin, Sanheim, Johns, Heinola, NHague
    G- Hellebuyck, Fleury
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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    you keep 6, but we don't know how many teams. so it's really hard to determine value of rookie in this format.

    I'd go with the kid 1st overall, but I suspect you might be overreaching again

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Lafreniere
    I will second this.
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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.Brad View Post
    The only fly I see in your Lafreniere and Kaprizov plan, is Brady Tkachuk. Even without his multi-cat value that ISN’T what your league counts, Brady may outscore both of your draft-eligible guys over the next 2 years. Don’t drop him without due consideration.
    Agreed - I've considered keeping Tkachuk over Forsberg, but I can't decide. Thinking he might be easier to redraft that Forsberg, since I own over half the second round where there's still loads of quality. I could see him taking a jump next year.

    Unrelated, but do you think I should look at taking Jack Hughes with my final pick (37th overall?) Or is he likely still several years from breaking out? I probably should only take Lafreniere or Kaprizov and then pick more proven guys, rather than picking several super young guys. I've got some good keepers and the most high picks out of all teams.
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    you keep 6, but we don't know how many teams. so it's really hard to determine value of rookie in this format.

    I'd go with the kid 1st overall, but I suspect you might be overreaching again
    Just added it to my signature - there are 12 teams, so we keep 72 overall. I have loads of high picks, so I'd have to force myself to stick to proven talent for the other picks if I chose Lafreniere 1st overall. I wonder if he'd drop to the 2nd though? I guess I'll have to wait and see who gets left unprotected. If it's someone like a Seguin or whoever, I should probably do that and not shoot myself in the foot again like I did with Hughes. Think Lafreniere is more of a sure thing than Hughes was? Or too hard to tell?
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by TheDard View Post
    Might be still little too early for that comparison. Only because we don't know which team Lafreniere will get drafted by. Also Kaprizov doesn't exactly have a top end centre to play with in Minnesota. That could change during free agency.

    Though draft either player would be a good move.
    Good point! Should wait to see who their projected linemates are. Our draft isn't until late September.
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by Svbetts View Post
    Just added it to my signature - there are 12 teams, so we keep 72 overall. I have loads of high picks, so I'd have to force myself to stick to proven talent for the other picks if I chose Lafreniere 1st overall. I wonder if he'd drop to the 2nd though? I guess I'll have to wait and see who gets left unprotected. If it's someone like a Seguin or whoever, I should probably do that and not shoot myself in the foot again like I did with Hughes. Think Lafreniere is more of a sure thing than Hughes was? Or too hard to tell?
    Think of if this way. In your format, it took 5 seasons for Nathan Mackinnon to be keeper worthy. If you are trying to win this upcoming year, I wouldn't draft a rookie. If you goal is just to "hit" on a keeper, well...it's a strategy, just one I don't think I'd use...

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Think of if this way. In your format, it took 5 seasons for Nathan Mackinnon to be keeper worthy. If you are trying to win this upcoming year, I wouldn't draft a rookie. If you goal is just to "hit" on a keeper, well...it's a strategy, just one I don't think I'd use...
    Thanks for this - super helpful with perspective. It's rare a rookie has enough points to justify taking them super high, and our league is so active in trading that I could honestly just let someone else take them and trade for them a couple years down the road if need be. Still might take the jump with Lafreniere, but your thought will help me stop from making this too much of a habit!
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Don't sell yourself short, if you can win now, then win now!!

    I honestly can't believe the Kaprizov love on these forums, and I own him..

    I would personally take Lafreniere over Kap.. But I might wait to see where guys are drafted and what happens in the offseason before I ultimately decide!!
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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    Quote Originally Posted by Zorro View Post
    Don't sell yourself short, if you can win now, then win now!!

    I honestly can't believe the Kaprizov love on these forums, and I own him..

    I would personally take Lafreniere over Kap.. But I might wait to see where guys are drafted and what happens in the offseason before I ultimately decide!!
    Yeah, you’re probably right that I’m focusing too much on finding the next rookie superstar. With all my high picks I should just go after a bunch of more proven guys. I still think I’ll take Lafreniere just because I can afford it this year with my entire team (all 13 draft picks) being in the first 37 slots overall. But after that I’ll go with problem guys. Thanks! You’re right that I should push hard for the win - I think I can pull it off.
    12 Team Keeper
    Points
    : G:1 A:1 W:2 SO:1
    Starts: 3C/3LW/3RW/4D/1G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,4
    C - Eichel, RNH, Karlsson, Trochek, Suzuki
    LW - Gaudreau, Forsberg, B. Tkachuk, Lee, JVR
    RW - Kucherov, Marner, Athanasiou, Brassard
    D - Giordano, Pionk, Spurgeon, Slavin, Weegar
    G - Francouz, Smith

    11 Team Keeper

    Points:
    G:2 A:1 W:2 SO:4
    Starts: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G
    20/21 Picks (13 Rounds): 1,2,3,3,3,4,5,5,8,10,11,12,13
    C - McDavid, Pettersson, Larkin
    LW - Connor, Kreider, Keller, Meier
    RW - Kucherov, Rantanen, Yamamoto, Atkinson
    D - Klingberg, Pionk, Provorov, Girard, Schmidt, Edler
    G - Markstrom, Rittich, Hart, Demko

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    Default Re: Which Rookie to Draft First - Lafreniere vs. Kaprizov

    you should keep Tkachuk over RNH or Forsberg easily IMO. As for the young pick def Lafraniere no question.

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