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Thread: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

  1. #1
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    Default NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    I analyzed NHL Draft pick success rates and used that information to create simplified, easy-to-remember probabilities.

    The results were very surprising to me. I think they'll be surprising to most people.

    >> https://dobberprospects.com/nhl-draf...probabilities/

  2. #2
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    I enjoyed reading that; nice article.

    I don't know if it's possible, but I wonder if any similar type of analysis could be done using metrics other than games played (i.e. to distinguish between the quality of players)?

  3. #3
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    I enjoyed reading that; nice article.

    I don't know if it's possible, but I wonder if any similar type of analysis could be done using metrics other than games played (i.e. to distinguish between the quality of players)?
    To this day, no one has figured out a way to properly and correctly quantify the quality of players. There are stats like WAR and others which are good at it but still nothing perfect. That's the problem.

    But if such stat existed and it was easily available to show everyone's quality throughout their careers (also taking into consideration player's development years and late years at the tail end of their careers), it could be linked to the players and used in the analysis.

    EDIT: Or you could manually go through the 598 players and assign some sort of a quality grade to them but I'm too lazy to do that.

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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Really well thought out and done Thanks. My dynasty league (in sig), I have picks 24 and 28 so maybe I trade one of these for two in the 35ish range...
    CONDORS, 2022-23 league champions, Reg Dunlop Mem Cup

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    The Great One

    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    To this day, no one has figured out a way to properly and correctly quantify the quality of players. There are stats like WAR and others which are good at it but still nothing perfect. That's the problem.

    But if such stat existed and it was easily available to show everyone's quality throughout their careers (also taking into consideration player's development years and late years at the tail end of their careers), it could be linked to the players and used in the analysis.

    EDIT: Or you could manually go through the 598 players and assign some sort of a quality grade to them but I'm too lazy to do that.
    This might not make sense. But, for example, a lot of your analysis is based on players drafted that reached 100, 200 or 300 GP. Could anything insightful be gained by doing an analysis of how many players drafted reached 70 points in at least one season? What I'm getting at....is something like you did, but instead of combining super stars and fringe players, picking some sort of milestone so that you are only showing fantasy relevant players. (Perhaps there are too few of them to do anything meaningful)?

    This isn't to take away from your article. It was a great read. It just had me wondering if similar analysis would shed light on how rare it is to draft a top 6 forward, or top 4 d, or whatever...

  6. #6
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    This might not make sense. But, for example, a lot of your analysis is based on players drafted that reached 100, 200 or 300 GP. Could anything insightful be gained by doing an analysis of how many players drafted reached 70 points in at least one season? What I'm getting at....is something like you did, but instead of combining super stars and fringe players, picking some sort of milestone so that you are only showing fantasy relevant players. (Perhaps there are too few of them to do anything meaningful)?

    This isn't to take away from your article. It was a great read. It just had me wondering if similar analysis would shed light on how rare it is to draft a top 6 forward, or top 4 d, or whatever...
    I only have their career stats available, not single-season stats. That sounds like a job where you'd need a professional data analyst.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    I took another stab at this topic and broke down probabilities by position to see if there are positions to target or avoid in certain situations (or in general).

    >> https://dobberprospects.com/nhl-draf...s-by-position/

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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    The third part of this series focuses on the NHL teams doing the drafting. Which ones have been the best at finding NHL players? Which ones have been the worst?

    Best and Worst Teams at Finding NHL Players from the Draft

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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Excellent stuff Jokke!
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Not surprised to see Calgary near the bottom. This is really cool to see, though. Great job!
    Points only keeper. 12 Teams. No pos requirements. 18 skaters / 3 goalies (2 count for points.) G/A = 1 point each (includes goalies) Goalies = 1.5 for W / 4.5 for SO. Minors - 4 year protection. Prospects added during their draft year only. Undrafted = waivers.
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  11. #11
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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Okay, I did one more, this time focusing on the quality of the players (for fantasy hockey purposes).

    NHL Draft Pick Probabilities for Fantasy Hockey

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    Default Re: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    Okay, I did one more, this time focusing on the quality of the players (for fantasy hockey purposes).

    NHL Draft Pick Probabilities for Fantasy Hockey
    This is great!! Thanks for doing this!
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