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Thread: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

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    Default Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Good day Dobber Nation. Hope this finds you all well and safe. Found a lull in my work day from home and started looking at my potential keeper list from my WHL league.

    I am definitely a Cap ceiling team and recognize the need to make a couple challenging decisions. But before I do, I have a handful of RFA's that I need to try and Guestimate next year's AAV changes. Any thoughts you may have would be helpful for me to gauge big picture. From likely Highest impact to lowest impact.

    LW - Taylor Hall $6 Million - Next Year?
    LW - Anthony Duclair $1.65 Millison - Next Year?
    G - Blackwood - $700K - Next Year?
    RW - Sammy Blais $850K - Next Year?
    D - Nikita Zadorov $3.2 Million - Next Year?

    Thanks for taking the time guys!

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Tough to make estimates not knowing what the cap is going to be, however making some base assumptions that there's a single compliance buyout per team, and the cap ends up somewhere in the $80-82M area, we can put some numbers together:

    I like Hall around $8-9M somewhere. Could be up closer to 10 in the right circumstances, but I don't think this is the time for it.
    Duclair - he's going to finally want some term, and get something similar to Kassian's deal.
    Blackwood I think gets a bridge, so two years at 2-3M.
    Blais already signed for two years at an AAV of $1.5M. I like him at that cost.
    Zadorov - The couple of healthy scratches hurt his case, so I think he comes in close to where he was last season. $3-4M on a 3-4 year deal.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Thanks Alex! Much appreciated. Especially on WHL intelligence before you join us.

    Hope that’s still happening.

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    I think it's up in the air just like everything else at this point
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    I like EBs numbers on the cap hits. Pretty much where I was thinking. I also think that salaries for next year will be lower than a lot of FAs were expecting but I can also see them signing a short term deals to get over this Corona hump mainly because the cap ceiling won't be nearly as high as was being projected.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I like EBs numbers on the cap hits. Pretty much where I was thinking. I also think that salaries for next year will be lower than a lot of FAs were expecting but I can also see them signing a short term deals to get over this Corona hump mainly because the cap ceiling won't be nearly as high as was being projected.
    Yup...great point Axeman. Thanks for the input!

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Any thoughts on where Perry lands and for how long/$ ??

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    I dont see him getting much $$, no matter where he signs. 21pts in 57 games doesn't scream big payday. I expect another short term deal for less than $2M. As far as where he signs, god knows. He's a bottom six, banger at best now so lots of teams are willing to bring him in if the money is cheap enough.
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    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Having recently been Crunchatized, I think Axeman's point is pretty important. I'd also expect some interesting deal structures to deal with the lack of current cash flow and income, where deals might be a bit more backloaded as well.

    I think Hall and Barrie wil have some interesting decisions to make as UFAs on teams they were dealt to because the original team couldn't fit them in, and the cap isn't growing much, if any this year.

    I agree with EB that Blackwood scream bridge deal, and I'd expect him to be closer to $2M. I compare him to Binnington, with less individual and team success. I don't think he's been good enough or established enough to get $3M, I would be more surprised if he got 3 than 1.5, actually.

    I see Zadarov as mostly just a guy. He's a mid-career defenseman with middle-pairing upside. He's a guy I could getting a slight pay cut, but more likely something short and roughly same salary.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Quote Originally Posted by havanablast21 View Post
    Any thoughts on where Perry lands and for how long/$ ??
    i think he will be getting 1 year deals from now on until he is done...i dont see much past the league's minimum to be honest, unless he goes to the team that need to get to the floor which im assuming he will not want to do.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    If Spezza is only getting paid 700K now, Perry won't be much higher. 1yr, $1.5M is the most I would give him.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    Quote Originally Posted by havanablast21 View Post
    Thanks Alex! Much appreciated. Especially on WHL intelligence before you join us.

    Hope that’s still happening.
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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    All great feedback. Thanks gents!

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    A couple more to add to the list of inquiries. Unsure EB's list is accurately thumbing Merkley and I can't find Stephens in there at all. May as well ask about another new asset to be acquired.

    C/W - N. Merkley ?
    C - Mitch Stephens ?
    D - Madison Bowey

    and do the leafs let Bracco walk?

    Thanks guys.

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    Default Re: Cap Crunch Estimates, HALL, DUCLAIR, BLACKWOOD, BLAIS ??

    C/W - N. Merkley ? - his qualifying offer of $874,125
    C - Mitch Stephens ? - his qualifying offer of $874,125
    D - Madison Bowey - either $1,000,000 for 1 year or $2,000,000 for 3 years

    and do the leafs let Bracco walk? No as that would be terrible asset management. They will make him his qualifying offer and try to trade his rights for something.

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