So Ive wanted to do something for awhile now and I figured Id share the results. That "thing" was breaking down the production of Nikita Gusev after the monumentous Hall trade. The team as a whole was a mess and no one knew what their role was, were they going Hischier or Hughes- and on top of that he had a language barrier and no time to establish chemistry with guys who themselves were finding their own stride. Although the team hasne bee fantastic they have gelled together a lot better and at the very least seem to have a bit more of an opportunity. I think that time frame might be a good sample period to draw on when considering future expectations. So I divided it two ways. The first is more on the nose- just took out the first quarter. The second one I took out all the games before the trade which left game logs for 37 games played since. I know its a very small sample size but Im hoping its at least a better representation then when Hall was in the lineup. His minutes range from 10-18 minutes although usually on the low end of that so it seems weird to add them into prognostications. These numbers would act as a baseline as this player and this team have so much room to grow as their young guns find their upside in full stride.

Gusev minus the first quarter of the season:
37 in 50gp- 8 goals- 123 sogs
82 game pace of 13 goals, 60 points and 201 sogs

Gusev production post Hall trade:
30 in 37gp- 7 goals- 90 sogs
82 game pace of 15 goals, 67 points and 200 sogs

Couple things to note right off the bat:

* His sogs are respectable for a new player and playmaker to boot. While 200 is nothing to write home about its actually a solid benchmark. In fact I use 200 as basically the cutoff for players Im going to consider trading for or acquiring. You always want to see more but 200 is a safe bare minimum and he gets there which is even more impressive for a player with his skillset. This bodes well for his future as he should generate more shots as his confidence increases. I would have actually expected less and Im optimisitc that if he can break into the league at a 200 sog rate even with the chemistery, depth and language barriers that hes a safe bet to improve on that total. Lots of players see a significant bump in sogs sometimes just simply as a result of seeing legitimate icetime on a regular basis. If he can get to the 220-240 range that would be excellent for a player of this type.

* Hes definitely more of a playmaker, which isnt necessarily a good thing perse in and of itself- but its not necessarily a bad thing either as he has great linemate options whether hes deployed on L1 or L2 with Hughes and Hischier. On top of that he seems to have carved an integral role on the powerplay where someone with that skill set can thrive. He went from 0 ppp in Q1 to 15 almost evenly distributed in the next three. That will be critical to his improvement and success. 15 is a good number because it shows hes effective with the man advantage but still leaves room to grow organically. It would not be unreasonable to expect 10 more points in ppp alone.

* The point range from 60 to 67 is a little wonky bfor a few reasons. I think the team was still struggling with role and chemistry in the wake of the trade and the second projection was off of 37 points which is actually a little silly in this type of exercise. I think 60 is probably the more reasonable side to err on.

* The future looks bright as his last quarter is shaping up to be his best and this is the quarter when theyve found their roles and are likely locked in where the team wants them going forward. hes been brilliant with 4 goals, seven points and 21 sogs (3/game is 240 full season pace in 8 games. Thats a ppg in a stupidly small sample size (but still intriguing!!)

So going forward I think Im going to value him as if he had put up a 62 point season with 200 sogs and 15 ppp. His last quarter had him shooting 3 sogs per game which is right in that 220-240 range were hoping for. In making a prediction from the future Im going to add 10 points based on increased powerplay potential, roster stability, overcoming unique obstacles (language was a big one for Gusev especially as he needed a translator at practice and in locker room), and increased chemistry with two future studs in Hischier and Hughes. I actually think adding 10 is kind of conservative but Id like to keep things realistic and dont want to hyperbolize any findings here.

In the end were looking at a line of 72 points with 15-20 of them being goals. Were banking on 220 sogs but hoping for 240. Were counting on 20 ppp but wouldnt be shocked if he gets 25. Thats a great statline in year 2 and I believe there is a lot of room to blossom offensively from there- especially as H and H refine their respective games. Early on the deabte was wether he was more of a Dadonov or more of a Panarin. if he can put up the numbers Im projecting here I think a year 3 outburst in the 80+ range is more than feasible. Although he stumbled out of the gate and his adjustment was not necessarily seamless I feel like the post Hall numbers paint the portrait of a core offensive asset going forward. i would say he leans more to the Panarin side although with a decided "lite" added to the end. While his 200 sogs are a respectable baseline he really has to take meaningful steps forward in that direction if he wants to be a true offensive powerhouse. In the meantime a 70 point 220 sog/20 ppp guy plays in almost any format I would think and yopu gotta love that 3 year forecast!!