Demko or Saros?

[mclarenf1]

Who would you rather own for the rest of this season?

[berni67]

Demko

[anthonybeaty]

Saros has been terrible. I guess I have to go Demko. Are there really no other choices?

[mclarenf1]

Crawford
Samsonov
Stalock
Georgiev

Saros numbers seem okay with a save percentage above 0.920 the past 4 games

[anthonybeaty]

Crawford and Stalock are both starters for their teams. I expect they will gets lots of starts for the rest of the season. With all those goalies, I choose Demko.

[gogoayane]

Saros has been terrible. I guess I have to go Demko. Are there really no other choices?

3W & above 0.920% in last 4 games. I think that's pretty good.

Demko has been average so far since Markstrom went down.

[anthonybeaty]

3W & above 0.920% in last 4 games. I think that's pretty good.

Demko has been average so far since Markstrom went down.

Demko has been bad since Markstrom went down. Bad enough that I would drop him and try someone else. I would probably try Crawford first.

Saros has been good his last 4 games, but if you add in his 5th and 6th games, then his numbers drop pretty substantially. I have said for a while that the most important stat for any goalie is GAA. Wins is kinda worthless because you can put up a gem of 1 GAA and still lose or put up a crapper of 5 GAA and still win. GAA is naturally normalized across all goalies. Saros's 2.89 puts him as the 41st best goalie in the league. Removing goalies with fewer than 10 appearances leaves him at 37th. SV% is probably next most important stat because again it naturally normalizes over all goalies. The problem with SV% is not all goalies receive the same number of shots over the course of a game. .907 puts him in the same 41+ position. There are 10 goalies with fewer than 10 appearances so he is really around 31st in the league.

I say again he has been terrible and isn't someone I would want to risk my playoffs on.

[senryu]

Expand Saros' game set to all of February, and you have 11 games, 7 wins, .930 save percentage and 2.33 GAA. There is no rationale for choosing Demko over Saros for the remainder of this season. Crawford will match Demko in sheer volume. And although the data set is small, Demko has been far below average. 3, 4, 3 goals against, save percentages of .925, .833, and .897.

Saros is your best home run bet of quality and quantity. But if he has a bad 2 game stretch, Nashville won't hesitate to put Rinne back in, due to Nashville loving Rinne above all else. In the year 2040, Nashville coaches will still be thinking about ways to get Rinne more involved. Crawford will likely get the most starts, but his percentage numbers won't match Saros. Samsonov will probably have the best percentage numbers, but not the starts or wins.

[ericdaoust]

I'd go with Saros

[anthonybeaty]

Expand Saros' game set to all of February, and you have 11 games, 7 wins, .930 save percentage and 2.33 GAA. There is no rationale for choosing Demko over Saros for the remainder of this season. Crawford will match Demko in sheer volume. And although the data set is small, Demko has been far below average. 3, 4, 3 goals against, save percentages of .925, .833, and .897.

Saros is your best home run bet of quality and quantity. But if he has a bad 2 game stretch, Nashville won't hesitate to put Rinne back in, due to Nashville loving Rinne above all else. In the year 2040, Nashville coaches will still be thinking about ways to get Rinne more involved. Crawford will likely get the most starts, but his percentage numbers won't match Saros. Samsonov will probably have the best percentage numbers, but not the starts or wins.

I went back 10 games back to Feb 8 (his 2 prior games were 2 and 1 GAA, but his two prior to that were 4 GAA):

4 GAA - 1 time
3 GAA - 5 times (1 time was in relief where he gave up 2 goals in 40 mins).
2 GAA - 3 times
1 GAA - 0 times
1 shutout

The shutout has a huge effect on his numbers. Given that he has been in 35 games and only has 2 shutouts, the influence it has on 10 games is bigger than it should be. We need to look at 17.5 games for the shutout to have the right effect. In addition, 6/10 games have been bad (>= 3 GAA). Since the average GAA in the nhl is 2.89 (best that I could find), he is worse than that in the majority of his games. The big Saros problem right now is that he is giving up too many goals. If 1 or 2 of the three GAA games were 1 GAA, then I would have a different opinion. This has been his problem all season long. Nashville as a team isn't helping.

I went back over his whole season and he has 11 games where he gave up 4 or more goals. He has 6 where he gave up 1 or fewer. That 11 doesn't count games where he was pulled early after giving up 3 goals. I don't trust him, Rinne or Nashville to get me good goalie stats.

Right now, I would rather Crawford straight up over Saros.

[Right handed shot]

Saros

[renello]

Saros.