Kase vs Hintz rest of season

**Big Baby** · February 27, 2020, 4:51 PM

Points only. Who ya got?

**Marz** · February 27, 2020, 5:44 PM

Roope

**Fighting_Emu** · February 27, 2020, 7:35 PM

Originally Posted by Big Baby

Points only. Who ya got?

So 1st thing is- you have to assume Kase is over this lingering flu. If hes not (and its getting ridiculous- lol- then you almost have to go Hintz by default

Hintz on pace for a goal heavy 49 points. The problem there is that although the goal scoring is nice its likely unsustainable. As far as assists are concerned his quality in linemates has fallen off as well. Hes spending the bulk of his time with Guiranov and Dickinson lately. He does some time on a line with Radulov and Pavelski but even there- after a hot little streak there Pavelski has fallen back to anchor status with 1 point in seven games. I like Hintz but hes leaning on an unsustainable shooting percentage and a linemate situation that goes from bad- to "oh my good- bad would be a significant step UP from whatever this is!!".

So Kase is on pace for 38 points- because thats a full season pace and were at fifty some odd games it works out to 3.5-4 points were talking about. That being said he goes from Anaheim who had an absolutely anemic offense to a Boston team that sits at sixth overall in terms of goals for and is tops in the entire league in terms of favorable goal differential- so the team situation is about as dramatically different as you could ask for. Wheres he fit in this offensive juggernaut though? It looks like hes tentatively lineup on L2 with Krejci and Ritchie who was also just acquired by Anaheim. Playing with Krejci is a boon as he has been a great complimentary player powering Bostons offensive depth from the second line admirably for the last couple years. It remains to be seen if ritchie will stay there but hes an interestin piece for sure and could be on the verge of a breakout of sorts if you follow the big man/games played theory typically espoused on this site by Stryker and Dobber (and I do- its actually pretty dang remarakable!). That being said- the Bs are going for the gusto this year and theyll stick in whoever fits best with Connolly and deBrusk being viable options as well. The point is in Anaheim they barely had a first line and while he may have started there he had been playing with Sam Steel and Max Jones for the last couple quarters. Hes in a much more favorable position here. There is the powerplay to factor in and there we have a good news, bad news, maybe its no news kind of situation. First theres no way to cherry coat it- hes not cracking pp1 here. Im a buig fan of Ondrej and theres a Kase to be made (IM sorry I had to!!)- that he belongs there long term- but it being an all in year, him being a newbie, and their pp firing on all cylinders already- theyre not going to mess with that. The bad news is that he racked up a measly 2 points with the nearly 2 minutes of powerplay time he was recieving on a nightly basis. Hence theres no real news due tohe powerplay- lol! Can we expect better results at evens? Yes- I belive we can definitively say there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic he can improve on his totals from the first three quarters.

In Conclusion...

Over the 30 odd games or so left we are talking about a 3-4 point differential between them based on their respective productions so far this year. In Hintz we have to expect some shooting percentage based regression in that his 18 goals dont look especially sustainable. He also stayed put in a Dallas team that didnt do much to improve itself and even there has seen his role challenged, tinkered with, and changed. Even his best case scenario doesnt include linemates to get excited about.

Kase is an exciting player whose underlying metrics have screamed breakout for awhile now and getting traded to an offensive powerhouse, playoff contender, and generally well managed team in and of itself may be enough to spark an improvement that covers and/or exceeds the 3-4 point differential in pace. Playing with Krejci and another exciting young talent is a really juicy proposition for his fantasy owners on its own. If this league has any keeper component where he can be kept Kase has a lot of added value if he can find a way to crack that golden powerplay.

Ill say this- I like both players. i like Hintz because he came out of nowhere, and can carry the offense on his own for stretches. I love guys that outperform their projections and can help from a depth role. Im not a fan of his low sog totals and am always hoping hes taking measures to focus on shooting more. I love kase as a breakout candidate and conversely and am giddy about his sogs per minute. If he ever gets "core player" icetime and opportunity I think youll see Gallagher-esque sog totals start to emerge whioch i for one am absolutle kooKoo for!

For this year even though his scoring pace has been noticably lower- ill still take Kase based on new opportunity and unsustainable goal scoring by Hintz. If theres a keeper component it gives even more of an edge to kase. In closing I want to say this was close and Im still a Roope fan but I think this is a clear case for Kase!!