Sunk Cost vs. Not Being Dumb - Keeper Decision (Will REP)

[Rockies & Hockeys]

For the top team in my sig, I foolishly drafted Hughes 1st overall this season even though we're a Keep 6 and rookies generally aren't taken at all in the first few rounds. Then I spent most of the season with a "sunk cost" mentality, meaning I was planning on keeping Hughes for when he's hopefully awesome somewhere down the road.

I just now came to terms with how dumb that probably is, as a small center with 25-ish points in his rookie season is going to fall massively in the draft next season and I could grab him mid-late if I so desired. I'm thinking I should keep RNH instead - the less sexy but more responsible choice probably.

What do you guys think of my shift in thinking? Am I seeing the light, or getting discouraged with Hughes too early? To be honest, I'd still probably plan to draft him - just not waste a keeper spot on him. I've got so many high picks next season that I could still easily grab him and see if his game takes a big step.

Also, despite how Hughes was for me this year, I'm still planning to take Lafreniere first round next draft. Am I insane, or would you guys take the jump all over again and hope at least one of the two #1's does awesome?

[Howard]

How many teams are in your league? And are you near the bottom of the standings or pretty competitive?

RNH is the safer choice, sure, but he's also 26 and has never scored 70 points. RNH would probably score more points next year but Hughes might make it close, and should have higher top-end potential, so it depends what you prioritize.

As for Lafreniere, I would definitely take him in the first round next year. Everything points to him being a star, and the track record of 1st overall picks is pretty damn good, especially the ones with as much hype as Lafreniere...

Currently, 5 of the league's top 15 scorers are former 1st overall picks, and that doesn't even include Crosby, Ovechkin, and Tavares.

Take Lafreniere this year, because if he's as good as expected, you won't get another chance later.

[Flame]

I think it will be a while before Hughes gets the same numbers as RNH for a couple of reasons.

1) I believe that Hughes' potential future upside is higher than Nuge, but it also takes most players time before they break out and reach their potential, usually 200 games played or around their 4th year.

2) I believe that Nuge is under rated, people will say how he has never reached 70 points. You have to take a look at who he played with most of the time the years he has been on the oilers, he was mostly playing with Eberle, and Lucic as main line mates. He get time with Hall but not as much. His best season so far was last year when he got to play some with Connor. I believe Nuge has another level that we are getting to see now, since Yamo was called up and that since he is being used to his strength's now instead of being expected to drive his own line as a center we will see he is able to be a 70+ pt player.

[Age80]

I did the exact same thing with Hughes this year bud. Your 100% right too next years draft you’ll be able to grab this kid mid to late draft.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

How many teams are in your league? And are you near the bottom of the standings or pretty competitive?

RNH is the safer choice, sure, but he's also 26 and has never scored 70 points. RNH would probably score more points next year but Hughes might make it close, and should have higher top-end potential, so it depends what you prioritize.

As for Lafreniere, I would definitely take him in the first round next year. Everything points to him being a star, and the track record of 1st overall picks is pretty damn good, especially the ones with as much hype as Lafreniere...

Currently, 5 of the league's top 15 scorers are former 1st overall picks, and that doesn't even include Crosby, Ovechkin, and Tavares.

Take Lafreniere this year, because if he's as good as expected, you won't get another chance later.

12 teams in my league. I've got a good chance to win next year, and will pretty much for certain finish top few spots (in the money). Have a LOAD of high picks. Thanks for the Lafreniere vote of confidence. I think I'll keep RNH (good wingers are gold and I usually keep too many centers), draft Lafreniere in the 1st, and Hughes with my last pick in the 3rd. No one else will likely grab him by then. And if he flops again, at least it won't cost me a top 1st rounder!

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I think it will be a while before Hughes gets the same numbers as RNH for a couple of reasons.

1) I believe that Hughes' potential future upside is higher than Nuge, but it also takes most players time before they break out and reach their potential, usually 200 games played or around their 4th year.

2) I believe that Nuge is under rated, people will say how he has never reached 70 points. You have to take a look at who he played with most of the time the years he has been on the oilers, he was mostly playing with Eberle, and Lucic as main line mates. He get time with Hall but not as much. His best season so far was last year when he got to play some with Connor. I believe Nuge has another level that we are getting to see now, since Yamo was called up and that since he is being used to his strength's now instead of being expected to drive his own line as a center we will see he is able to be a 70+ pt player.

Yeah, I'm thinking in a keep 6 I don't need to hold onto Hughes for a few years hoping for him to eventually get there. We trade a LOT in my league, so I can likely snag him that way in a couple years if need be. RNH being a winger helps too. He looks awesome last year and this.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I did the exact same thing with Hughes this year bud. Your 100% right too next years draft you’ll be able to grab this kid mid to late draft.

Yeah, I don't see anyone taking him early next year. My lowest pick is in the 3rd, so I can burn it on him easy.

[hockeymanG23]

I think I'd rather keep Markstrom or maybe even Suzuki over RNH or Hughes at the moment

[stevegamer]

The only issue with your thinking is the sunk cost fallacy part. Once the cost has been spent, there's no ability to worry about it, unless there's a way to recoup some of it, which really is dealing with the state of things as they are.

There's no way I keep Hughes with your options.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

The only issue with your thinking is the sunk cost fallacy part. Once the cost has been spent, there's no ability to worry about it, unless there's a way to recoup some of it, which really is dealing with the state of things as they are.

There's no way I keep Hughes with your options.

Exactly. I'd been stuck in that mindset with Hughes all year, so I'm glad I finally saw the light yesterday, haha. Thanks! Between Forsberg, RNH, Markstrom, even Suzuki, JVR, etc., there's someone there who will give me a lot more value. Then I can draft him back for cheap later.

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The only issue with your thinking is the sunk cost fallacy part. Once the cost has been spent, there's no ability to worry about it, unless there's a way to recoup some of it, which really is dealing with the state of things as they are.

There's no way I keep Hughes with your options.

I've thought of that too. Don't need to declare keepers until September. Just know now I won't keep Hughes.