Andrew Mangiapane First Career Hat Trick

[Flame]

Andrew has been on my radar for a bit, and after his hat trick tonight I decided to pick him up. The scouting reports sounded positive, so I was wondering what kind of ceiling the guy has?

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I was at the game, and he looked good! I think with a guy like him it'll come down to opportunity as time goes on.

[audiopile]

He has a motor and some skills. I was interested but he started the season on L4. Glad he is getting some respect now. Upside, no idea.

[agentzero]

Has the junior scoring pedigree. I think he’s a top 6 forward and from there a lot can happen (or not). I wouldn’t be afraid to consider him a 65 pt ceiling at the moment, with a 45 pt floor. I do say at the moment, since a lot is unfolding before our eyes. Has the pedigree tho.

[Bubba55]

It's certainly all speculation at this point but I do think he absolutely has top 6 potential. When the stars align he could have a season or two flirting with 70 points. However, 55 - 60 range is where I would expect him to land. A good solid player but not "star" caliber.

[Eskimo Brother]

Has the junior scoring pedigree. I think he’s a top 6 forward and from there a lot can happen (or not). I wouldn’t be afraid to consider him a 65 pt ceiling at the moment, with a 45 pt floor. I do say at the moment, since a lot is unfolding before our eyes. Has the pedigree tho.

Tough to say he has a 45 point floor when even after a hat-trick he's only on pace for 35 points. I don't mind pegging a 65 point ceiling, as he could put that up if he get set up with Tkachuk/Lindholm or Monahan/Gaudreau (with some PP time), but his floor right now is probably 30 points in an 82 game season.

[rataylor22]

Tough to say he has a 45 point floor when even after a hat-trick he's only on pace for 35 points. I don't mind pegging a 65 point ceiling, as he could put that up if he get set up with Tkachuk/Lindholm or Monahan/Gaudreau (with some PP time), but his floor right now is probably 30 points in an 82 game season.

I agree with this. Mangi is great and a really solid "real" NHL player but Calgary is stupid and not even using him full time on PP2. It's unlikely he ever ascends to PP1, and therefore I doubt he ever reaches 65 points. Even if the Flames are braindead enough to trade Gaudreau this offseason, Pelletier is coming soon, he's already competing with Dube, and MEP has an outside shot at becoming a real player too.

[agentzero]

Tough to say he has a 45 point floor when even after a hat-trick he's only on pace for 35 points. I don't mind pegging a 65 point ceiling, as he could put that up if he get set up with Tkachuk/Lindholm or Monahan/Gaudreau (with some PP time), but his floor right now is probably 30 points in an 82 game season.

I’d take that floor bet next year. 45 vs 30..

At this point we’re not prognosticating for how he finishes the year, but how he does in the next few. With that in mind, he’s got all the tools to throw down 20 goals and 25 assists, at minimum. A lot will obviously depend on ice time and opportunity but I think he’s showing he’s worth it. He’s showcased with Lindholm this year, his real first top 6 chance.

I see it.

[Eskimo Brother]

I’d take that floor bet next year. 45 vs 30..

At this point we’re not prognosticating for how he finishes the year, but how he does in the next few. With that in mind, he’s got all the tools to throw down 20 goals and 25 assists, at minimum. A lot will obviously depend on ice time and opportunity but I think he’s showing he’s worth it. He’s showcased with Lindholm this year, his real first top 6 chance.

I see it.

I'm not disagreeing with you on his ability to hit 45 or more next year, I'm disagreeing with your use of the term "floor". If he doesn't get any top 6 deployment next year, not a sniff of the top powerplay, and just generally doesn't take that next big step, his production will be around 30 points. That's his floor - the approximate lowest point total he will put up in an 82 game season if things are stacked against him. Considering none of the top 6 in Calgary have an expiring contract, and that Mangiapane is still ~80 games from the 200 game breakout threshold (though he possibly fits in the 400 game threshold for smaller players), expecting a big step next season may be a little early.

It sounds like you're projecting what he might actually hit at 45, vs a floor at 30 and an upside at 55 if he gets some plum deployment all season.

[ericdaoust]

Mangiapane would fit in the 200 category for BT

[Eskimo Brother]

Mangiapane would fit in the 200 category for BT

Thanks! I always forget what the heights are. I suppose it's 5'9" used as the cutoff so he misses by an inch?

[ericdaoust]

Thanks! I always forget what the heights are. I suppose it's 5'9" used as the cutoff so he misses by an inch?

Cut-off is 5'9 and 170 lbs

[agentzero]

I'm not disagreeing with you on his ability to hit 45 or more next year, I'm disagreeing with your use of the term "floor". If he doesn't get any top 6 deployment next year, not a sniff of the top powerplay, and just generally doesn't take that next big step, his production will be around 30 points. That's his floor - the approximate lowest point total he will put up in an 82 game season if things are stacked against him. Considering none of the top 6 in Calgary have an expiring contract, and that Mangiapane is still ~80 games from the 200 game breakout threshold (though he possibly fits in the 400 game threshold for smaller players), expecting a big step next season may be a little early.

It sounds like you're projecting what he might actually hit at 45, vs a floor at 30 and an upside at 55 if he gets some plum deployment all season.

Of course all kinds of things can influence his floor, including injuries. To me floor is safe bet and the way things are going I think he’s a safe bet to float around the middle 6 next year and hit around 45. Don’t think he’ll be near his upside next year with the jam in the top 6 but I do think the days of him being ignored from increased usage and better deployment are done. He’s a useful player and he’s proving he belongs. I’m confident he’s done with his 30 pt floor days is all. Maybe 45 is high but certainly 40.

[Eskimo Brother]

Of course all kinds of things can influence his floor, including injuries. To me floor is safe bet and the way things are going I think he’s a safe bet to float around the middle 6 next year and hit around 45. Don’t think he’ll be near his upside next year with the jam in the top 6 but I do think the days of him being ignored from increased usage and better deployment are done. He’s a useful player and he’s proving he belongs. I’m confident he’s done with his 30 pt floor days is all. Maybe 45 is high but certainly 40.

Sounds like we have a slight discrepancy with our definition of floor in this case, and also maybe a few points difference in terms of projection for Mangiapane next season, but I can definitely agree he's a guy that's worth watching.