Trade Deadline thoughts on Toronto's Defence & the issues with a significant add
As we near the trade deadline, im sure the fanbase is well versed in the Leaf's roster deficiencies and needs. An elite backup goalie, better Defensemen whose play actually resembles something close to the job description, etc.
Of course aquiring these, especially another top 4 D, would definitely help, but I wonder what kind of Defenceman we should be targeting here.
Especially when you factor in what their actual role/deployment will be, how it would effect other guys icetime/UFA status, salary cap impact, & of course if the asset cost will be worth it when all things are considered.
Now, like most of the league, Toronto's Power Play currently rolls out 4 forwards & 1 defenseman. Rielly is obviously the guy on PP1 with a 43% deployment, and Barrie is currently on PP2 with 40.8%.
The top 4 at even strength generally looks like this.
LD Rielly RD Ceci
LD Muzzin RD Barrie
The franchise depth issues on the right side are well documented, not only because Ceci is rolling beside Rielly on the top pairing, but Ceci, Barrie & Holl are the right handed shots on the roster, with Holl the only guy expected to still be here in 2020. The minors only boast 2017 1st rounder Timothy Lilegren & former St Louis Blues pick Jordan Schmaltz as viable in house options this season and beyond.
Looking to next season Ceci, Muzzin, and Barrie are UFA. Barrie is probably gone, and hopefully Ceci, leaving Rielly, Holl & Marcinin as the current signed/returning group. Dermott is an RFA and Sandin will have likely earned a permanent job before the 2019 season is done. So there is going to be a lot of movement within the D corps.
LD Rielly RD ???
LD ??? RD ???
LD Dermott RD Holl
LD Sandin
So what the Leafs are looking for is a right shot D to not only take over from Ceci overall, but likely the PP2 role from Barrie next yr.
Matt Dumba is the latest rumoured target for Dubas & Co, and at $6 mil a season there would have to be at least $4-5 mil going back the other way to make room this season. In 2020 he could be taking both Ceci's $4.5 mil salary and $1.5 mil of Barrie's $2.75 so the dollars could work. The remainder of Barrie's $$$ could also be significant in helping to retain Muzzin with a healthy raise to around $5.5 mil. Perfect right?
Well...no. This is where things get tricky. Even though Ceci & Barrie's money would conceivably go to Dumba or someone like him, it might also push Muzzin off the roster since Toronto not only needs to cover the Dermott/Holl raises but Barrie's replacement on the 2nd pairing. That's 3 roster spots to account for. If we project $3-$4 mil for Dermott, between $3-$4 mil for that 2nd pairing RD, and combine them with Holl's $1.325 mil raise it comes to a possible $7.325-$9.5 mil increase on the bottom 3 Dmen, or $8-$10.5 total.
The salary cap roster template trend for elite teams has been well established, and mainly focuses the $$$ on the forward group, a starting goalie, and with one elite Dman making north of $5-6 mil. With 3 star forwards making north of $10 million, Freddy & Rielly @ $5.0 mil it's one Toronto clearly is following. Obtaining a guy like Dumba would give Toronto a top pairing with Rielly's that makes $11 mil. Resigning Muzzin and paying whoever slots in beside him would potentially cost another $9-$10 mil for a top 4 D making $20 million.
Then there's the issue of roles & icetime. With Dermott evolving into a reliable top 4 option, and Sandin on the cusp of a full time roster spot & maybe becoming an impact player, would adding a player of Dumba's calibre & salary make retaining Muzzin at just shy of $6 mil even feasible? Especially since Muzzin, Rielly, Dermott & Sandin are all left handed shots?
I'm probably falling down a bit of a rabbit hole here, and haven't even begun to contemplate the asset cost of trading for a top 4 D.
So I'm going to tap out here and revisit this in a bit, but the impact goes well beyond loading up for the playoffs and I think fans/pundits really need to give more consideration to the fallout of such a move beyond this season.
HFD 12 Team H2H
G,A,P,+/-,PPP, PIM,HITS
W,GAA,SV%,SO
Airdrie Analrapists
C O'Reilly, Zibanejad, Hischier
LW Hall, Teravainen, Arvidsson.V
RW Stone, Kessel, Laine
UT RW Radulov, LW Gusev, RW W. Nylander
D Burns, Dahlin, Dumba, Muzzin, Morrrisey, McNabb
G Varlamov, Grubauer
BN G Hutton, G Ullmark, W Bjorkstrand
Minors 25/25
F Anderson-Dolan, Barré-Boulet, Batherson, Bemström, Dahlen, Fix-Wolansky, Gaudette, Greenway, Kahun, Kakko, Kaliyev, Kaprizov, Lindblom.O, Luff, Mattheos, N Robertson, Terry. T, Thomas. A
D Hague, Jokiharju, Persson, Wilde, Woo
G Berdin, Sarek, Sorokin