Quote Originally Posted by Kofax View Post
You need to look deeper.

Rust's S% right now is 19.1% vs 12.3% historically. He should be closer to 13 goals right now.

Rust's 5on5 S% right now is 14.6% vs 9% historically. He should be closer to 28 points than 43 (a 63 point pace vs a 98 point pace).

You are right, his ice time is up but that is due to injuries and opportunities. When the team is healthy, I don't think that is maintained. When that comes down, so will his shot rate (currently 3/game vs 1.9/game last year) which will limit opportunities for points. Even if it doesn't come all the way down to historical numbers, you're still looking at a 50-60 point guy without the pedigree.

There isn't much that says Konecny can't sustain his current pace. Maybe his S% is a little high this year, but 5on5 S% is fine. Chances are his icetime increases from 17:00 as he grows which will increase his opportunities to put up points. You're probably looking at a 70-80 point player with a pedigree.

If I had to bet on Rest of Season, I'm going with Konecny.

If I had to pick a keeper, I'm going with Konecny.
I have looked deeper. Just pointing out his TOI is superior to Konecny's because that hadn't been brought up in the debate between the two players. If we're talking ROS, I'm not sure what injured guys are coming back that will lower Rust's TOI? Bjugstad?

Again, my point was to show Rust's TOI as superior. I prefer his TOI and don't think it'll be dropping much, if at all, the ROS.