Poll: Will Ovechkin (692) Pass Gretzky (894) for Career Goals?

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Thread: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

  1. #46
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Bye Bye Messier.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Below are all the positional players who played into their 40s... a decent amount of them from the modern era. I don't see why Ovie shouldn't be able to do it...

    If we assume he gets 20 more goals this year he'll finish the year at 712 - 180 short of Gretzy's record.

    Dude is 34 years old - so here are some scenarios that would land him on the record. With some luck health-wise, I think it's totally doable. I would bet on him doing it before 40 too.

    50/50/40/40 - 38 years old
    45/40/35/30/30 - 39 years old
    30 x 6 - 40 years old
    50/40/30/30/20/20 - 40 years old
    I'm changing my mind! I wish you had posted this earlier... because when you break it down, Ovi has a great chance to beat Gretzky.

    Ovi currently has 695 goals in 1135 games for a career pace of 0.61 GPG. This season, he's scoring at a rate of 0.73 GPG so let's assume he continues that and finishes with 59 goals in 81 games. That gives him 717 goals over his career.

    I took Blayze's list and cherry-picked the more elite goal scoring forwards and looked at some numbers: goal-scoring pace over age 35 to 40 seasons (even if they played longer), goal-scoring pace from rookie year to age 34 season, and the percentage of decline between those two paces. I'm totally nerding out here, but see below:

    Format: Player - G/GP in seasons 35 to 40, GPG in seasons 35 to 40/GPG rookie to age 34, percentage of decline

    Howe - 192/428, 0.44/0.47, 6.4%
    Jagr - 60/200, 0.3/0.52, 42.3%
    Selanne - 185/380, 0.49/0.52, 5.8%
    Recchi - 115/399, 0.29/0.39, 25.6%
    Messier - 173/480, 0.36/0.44, 18.1%
    Bucyk - 219/465, 0.47/0.32, +46.9%
    Roberts - 88/282, 0.31/0.39, 20.5%
    Andreychuk - 117/439, 0.27/0.45, 40%
    Br. Hull - 155/403, 0.38/0.68, 44.1%
    Yzerman - 65/258, 0.25/0.5, 50%
    Shanahan - 123/338, 0.36/0.45, 20%
    Nieuwendyk - 95/305, 0.31/0.49, 36.7%
    Lemieux - 77/170, 0.45/0.82, 45.1%
    Robitaille - 78/307, 0.25/0.52, 51.9%
    Mullen - 102/292, 0.35/0.57, 38.6%

    A few things to note... Bobby Hull was omitted because he played his age 35 to 40 seasons in the WHA. We all knew Gordie Howe was a freak of nature and his minuscule decline further illustrates that but also -- Teemu Freaking Selanne! One of my favourite players of all time, that dude barely missed a beat after age 34. Johnny Bucyk is an anomaly. Guy's career high before age 35 was 31 goals scored in his age 34 season. He scored 51 goals in his age 35 season and continued to light it up until his last season.

    So, how does this relate to Ovechkin? Let's take a look at the worse case scenario. Well, not worse case. Worse case would be Ovi suffering a career-ending injury in his next game and he ends up with 695 goals. Let's assume he stays relatively healthy. He's averaged 81 games over his last five seasons so let's cut him some slack and say he plays 77 games per season over the next six seasons to bring him to age 40. That's 462 total games played. Luc Robitaille (another one of my all time favourites) declined by 51.9% playing on a couple stacked Detroit teams and losing a season at age 38 due to the lockout for the biggest decline among all that I looked at.

    If Ovi's pace declines by 51.9% starting next season, he'll score 134 goals in 462 games for a career total of 851, missing the mark by 43 goals and settling in at number 2 all time. Still a massive accomplishment but Ovechkin ain't no Luc Robitaille. As much as I love Lucky Luc, he declined sharply in his last few seasons and was never the same kind of force that Ovi has been.

    If Ovi's pace declines by the average of those fifteen players (26.55%), he beats Gretzky. He scores 208 goals for 925 total, beating the Great One by 31 goals.

    The thing is, Ovi is anything but average. Even before I did this, I've always sort of compared him to Teemu Selanne in many ways. So let's say the Great Eight mimics the Finnish Flash and only declines by 5.8%. That would give him 263 goals for 980 total, beating Gretzky by 86 goals.

    I know that even after all this word-vomit, it's a bit of a simplistic way to look at it, but as long as Ovi stays relatively healthy over the next six years, and there's no reason to assume that he won't, he's pretty much a lock for number two all time -- and that's if he starts scoring an average of 22 goals per season starting next year. Selanne averaged 38 goals per 77 games from age 35 to 40 and then potted 47 more goals to get him to age 43.

    After looking at all this, I really think he'll do it.

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  3. #48
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Guvnah View Post
    I'm changing my mind! I wish you had posted this earlier... because when you break it down, Ovi has a great chance to beat Gretzky.

    Ovi currently has 695 goals in 1135 games for a career pace of 0.61 GPG. This season, he's scoring at a rate of 0.73 GPG so let's assume he continues that and finishes with 59 goals in 81 games. That gives him 717 goals over his career.

    I took Blayze's list and cherry-picked the more elite goal scoring forwards and looked at some numbers: goal-scoring pace over age 35 to 40 seasons (even if they played longer), goal-scoring pace from rookie year to age 34 season, and the percentage of decline between those two paces. I'm totally nerding out here, but see below:

    Format: Player - G/GP in seasons 35 to 40, GPG in seasons 35 to 40/GPG rookie to age 34, percentage of decline

    Howe - 192/428, 0.44/0.47, 6.4%
    Jagr - 60/200, 0.3/0.52, 42.3%
    Selanne - 185/380, 0.49/0.52, 5.8%
    Recchi - 115/399, 0.29/0.39, 25.6%
    Messier - 173/480, 0.36/0.44, 18.1%
    Bucyk - 219/465, 0.47/0.32, +46.9%
    Roberts - 88/282, 0.31/0.39, 20.5%
    Andreychuk - 117/439, 0.27/0.45, 40%
    Br. Hull - 155/403, 0.38/0.68, 44.1%
    Yzerman - 65/258, 0.25/0.5, 50%
    Shanahan - 123/338, 0.36/0.45, 20%
    Nieuwendyk - 95/305, 0.31/0.49, 36.7%
    Lemieux - 77/170, 0.45/0.82, 45.1%
    Robitaille - 78/307, 0.25/0.52, 51.9%
    Mullen - 102/292, 0.35/0.57, 38.6%

    A few things to note... Bobby Hull was omitted because he played his age 35 to 40 seasons in the WHA. We all knew Gordie Howe was a freak of nature and his minuscule decline further illustrates that but also -- Teemu Freaking Selanne! One of my favourite players of all time, that dude barely missed a beat after age 34. Johnny Bucyk is an anomaly. Guy's career high before age 35 was 31 goals scored in his age 34 season. He scored 51 goals in his age 35 season and continued to light it up until his last season.

    So, how does this relate to Ovechkin? Let's take a look at the worse case scenario. Well, not worse case. Worse case would be Ovi suffering a career-ending injury in his next game and he ends up with 695 goals. Let's assume he stays relatively healthy. He's averaged 81 games over his last five seasons so let's cut him some slack and say he plays 77 games per season over the next six seasons to bring him to age 40. That's 462 total games played. Luc Robitaille (another one of my all time favourites) declined by 51.9% playing on a couple stacked Detroit teams and losing a season at age 38 due to the lockout for the biggest decline among all that I looked at.

    If Ovi's pace declines by 51.9% starting next season, he'll score 134 goals in 462 games for a career total of 851, missing the mark by 43 goals and settling in at number 2 all time. Still a massive accomplishment but Ovechkin ain't no Luc Robitaille. As much as I love Lucky Luc, he declined sharply in his last few seasons and was never the same kind of force that Ovi has been.

    If Ovi's pace declines by the average of those fifteen players (26.55%), he beats Gretzky. He scores 208 goals for 925 total, beating the Great One by 31 goals.

    The thing is, Ovi is anything but average. Even before I did this, I've always sort of compared him to Teemu Selanne in many ways. So let's say the Great Eight mimics the Finnish Flash and only declines by 5.8%. That would give him 263 goals for 980 total, beating Gretzky by 86 goals.

    I know that even after all this word-vomit, it's a bit of a simplistic way to look at it, but as long as Ovi stays relatively healthy over the next six years, and there's no reason to assume that he won't, he's pretty much a lock for number two all time -- and that's if he starts scoring an average of 22 goals per season starting next year. Selanne averaged 38 goals per 77 games from age 35 to 40 and then potted 47 more goals to get him to age 43.

    After looking at all this, I really think he'll do it.
    YES!!! Great post. He WILL do it as long as he can stay HEALTHY. Even Gretzky believes he can do it.

    I don't see an elite skill guy like Ovie suddenly becoming a hasbeen overnight. I wouldn't mind seeing him dial back his physicality a bit for the sake of his longevity... but we all know Ovie only plays one mode

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    YES!!! Great post. He WILL do it as long as he can stay HEALTHY. Even Gretzky believes he can do it.

    I don't see an elite skill guy like Ovie suddenly becoming a hasbeen overnight. I wouldn't mind seeing him dial back his physicality a bit for the sake of his longevity... but we all know Ovie only plays one mode
    Nope. He's not becoming a hasbeen. He'll go out on his terms barring anything catastrophic. His goal-scoring pace this year is his highest since his age 22 season. It's crazy -- this guy just lives to score goals.

    I also did not realize when I posted last that no one has led the league in goals as many times as Ovechkin has. He's done it eight times with a good chance to make it nine this year. Bobby Hull did it seven times, Phil Esposito six. Charlie Conacher, Maurice Richard, Gordie Howe and Wayne Gretzky five times. I want him to beat Gretzky but even if he doesn't, I can't agree with anyone who says he's not the greatest goal scorer of all time.

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    D (4) - Theodore, Orlov, Grzelcyk, T. van Riemsdyk, Clifton, Skjei, Weegar
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    G (1) - Montembault, Allen, Halak



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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Another hatty for the GR8 tonight... on pace for 62 goals. Slowing down my ass!

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    I believe he will do it. What is crazy is most, if not all 34 year olds start to disappear. He just keeps doing his thing, hanging out at his usual spot and is scoring at the same pace he was in his 20's. If Alex can tie, and beat Gretzky's record, that would be the biggest moment in recent memory. Then continue on and score 900 then retire. All at the age of 39. That's how I think it will happen.

    Barring any freak injury of course.

    GO OVIE

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    The media was chattering around Pasta and Matthews taking the goal scoring title and Ovi was like...hold my vodka, I got some hatties to pot. Seriously, 12 goals in 6 games.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2014olympicgold View Post
    The media was chattering around Pasta and Matthews taking the goal scoring title and Ovi was like...hold my vodka, I got some hatties to pot. Seriously, 12 goals in 6 games.
    Yep. I should have put money on it. Ugh.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    If he breaks Gretzky's record does he belong on the mount rush more of hockey? The greatest players of all time... Gretzky, Lemiuex, ORR, Ovi?
    12 Team Keep 5 (2 F, 1 D, 1 G, 1 Any) G,A,PTS,PPP,SOG,HITS,PIMS,W,GAA and Sv%.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by Canucks_fan18 View Post
    If he breaks Gretzky's record does he belong on the mount rush more of hockey? The greatest players of all time... Gretzky, Lemiuex, ORR, Ovi?
    No... too one dimensional to be considered in the same league as Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux.

    He's not even the best player of his generation.

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    I'd make him a top 10 player if he breaks Gretzky's record. Between 6-20, it's pretty muddled anyways so I can see the argument of a bunch of guys ahead of Ovi, but man he's sick.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Definitely the best goal-scorer ever.


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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    No... too one dimensional to be considered in the same league as Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux.

    He's not even the best player of his generation.
    I get that but let me make the case for him. No one wins a hockey game if a goal isn't scored and he does that part of the game better than anyone in history. Having the all time goals record is liking having the all time hits record in baseball or the all time points record in Basketball. Also, I use to put Crosby firmly ahead of him but I think it's getting closer and for the record I have Crosby close to top 5 of all time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Definitely the best goal-scorer ever.
    I would say that earns him a spot on the Mountain.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    I would say that earns him a spot on the Mountain.
    Agreed the game is won by goals going into the net.
    12 Team Keep 5 (2 F, 1 D, 1 G, 1 Any) G,A,PTS,PPP,SOG,HITS,PIMS,W,GAA and Sv%.

    F: Kucherov, K.Connor, J. Hughes,,J.Guentzel, A.Svechnikov, C.Giroux, T.Terry
    D: Q. Hughes, A.Pietrangelo, J.Carlson, A.Ekblad, Sanheim
    G:Bobrovsky, Ingram

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