Poll: Will Ovechkin (692) Pass Gretzky (894) for Career Goals?

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Thread: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Also consider Ovechkin averages 18 PPG per game the last 5 years. The manner in which he scores those goals is unlikely to decline significantly. Having basically a 20 goal floor is a pretty nice starting point.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    I just don't see it. He needs to average 40 goals for five more years, assuming he can stay healthy enough to seay at that pace. That's asking a lot.

    He'll get close but I think he falls short.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Also consider Ovechkin averages 18 PPG per game the last 5 years. The manner in which he scores those goals is unlikely to decline significantly. Having basically a 20 goal floor is a pretty nice starting point.
    Agreed. I don't see his PPG slipping that far for some time. Ovy is currently #3 all time in PPG behind:

    #2 - Brett Hull and
    #1 - Dave Andreychuk??? <--spoiler

    Also, Ovy is now tied for #1 for most goals with a single franchise with Steve Yzerman
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by LawMan View Post
    Agreed. I don't see his PPG slipping that far for some time. Ovy is currently #3 all time in PPG behind:

    #2 - Brett Hull and
    #1 - Dave Andreychuk??? <--spoiler

    Also, Ovy is now tied for #1 for most goals with a single franchise with Steve Yzerman
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Really the question is just do you think Ovechkin will play until ~40. He's said previously in interviews he wouldn't keep playing just to break the record, so he might not just hang around. He easily will break it if he plays another 5 seasons after this, and he's obviously the best goal scorer of all time.
    Actually the new rumblings are that he will keep playing to break the record if he's close. I heard Backstrom say this just this past week. I say he needs 6 healthy seasons. So I am going to say yes but its far from certain.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    I voted yes. He's in my opinion the greatest goal scorer ever, with a possible exception of a much older guy, when scoring was much lower. He's certainly the best modern era goal scorer.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    I don't think Ovechkin will do it.

    I also don't believe any of the talk that Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time. That remains Wayne Gretzky and it's not close. I also don't think that "adjusting for era" makes any sense and here's why.

    The one season that Ovechkin led the NHL in points, he was in on 1.67% of the goals scored in the NHL. Over Gretzky's first 10 years, he either scored or had an assist on over 2.87% of every goal scored in the league. How do you account for that when "adjusting for era"? How many less goals would have been scored in the NHL if Gretzky wasn't there?

    From the start of the 1980 season to the end of the 1989/90 season, Gretzky scored 152 more goals than any other player in the league. Gretzky also had a season where he scored 28 more goals than the 2nd place finisher.

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Ovy just passed Lemieux for most career goals? I'm not so sure about that.

    Sure, he could pass Gretzky...but I wouldn't take that bet!

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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I also don't believe any of the talk that Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time. That remains Wayne Gretzky and it's not close. I also don't think that "adjusting for era" makes any sense and here's why.
    Of course you don't

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  10. #25
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I don't think Ovechkin will do it.

    I also don't believe any of the talk that Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time. That remains Wayne Gretzky and it's not close. I also don't think that "adjusting for era" makes any sense and here's why.

    The one season that Ovechkin led the NHL in points, he was in on 1.67% of the goals scored in the NHL. Over Gretzky's first 10 years, he either scored or had an assist on over 2.87% of every goal scored in the league. How do you account for that when "adjusting for era"? How many less goals would have been scored in the NHL if Gretzky wasn't there?

    From the start of the 1980 season to the end of the 1989/90 season, Gretzky scored 152 more goals than any other player in the league. Gretzky also had a season where he scored 28 more goals than the 2nd place finisher.
    There are more teams playing more games and therefore scoring more goals overall so it naturally waters down an individuals numbers percentage wise relative to the league as a whole.

    Also, like the link rataylor22 post points out, it’s very well documented that goaltending in the 80’s was abysmal compared to the quality of goalies in the modern era.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Ovy just passed Lemieux for most career goals? I'm not so sure about that.

    Sure, he could pass Gretzky...but I wouldn't take that bet!
    How are you not sure about him passing Lemieux? Pretty sure its simple to see that the number of goals Ovechkin has scored is a higher number than the number Lemieux scored. It’s not really a qualitative thing...
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeymanG23 View Post
    There are more teams playing more games and therefore scoring more goals overall so it naturally waters down an individuals numbers percentage wise relative to the league as a whole.

    Also, like the link rataylor22 post points out, it’s very well documented that goaltending in the 80’s was abysmal compared to the quality of goalies in the modern era.
    There’s also the fact that most NHL players back then, particularly goalies, were just dudes who were really good at hockey. They smoked, ate at Tim Hortons, drank, snorted coke (which obviously still goes on to a certain extent)....no one really took care of their bodies. Some guys lifted weights but thats about it. Someone with Gretzky’s natural talent was so much better than those around him. Not only was there less parity in team quality, there was less parody in conditioning and talent and how those two work together to produce a better level of ability league wide - including the goalies.
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  13. #28
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by tweetdrivr View Post
    There’s also the fact that most NHL players back then, particularly goalies, were just dudes who were really good at hockey. They smoked, ate at Tim Hortons, drank, snorted coke (which obviously still goes on to a certain extent)....no one really took care of their bodies. Some guys lifted weights but thats about it. Someone with Gretzky’s natural talent was so much better than those around him. Not only was there less parody in team quality, there was less parody in conditioning and talent and how those two work together to produce a better level of ability league wide - including the goalies.
    Just to add a bit but team strategy, defensive positioning, transition play and coverage, coaching. It's all better now. It's not really disputable that the quality of play has increased and it makes logical sense. Just watch a video from the 80s or even 90s side by side with a video from today. It doesn't pass the eye test.

    I've heard Ray Ferraro talk about how 14 year olds are now skating as fast as he did when he was in the NHL. It's just completely different.

    The talent floor of the league is just so much higher than it used to be, you can argue that the talent ceiling is similar but I personally think that's quite a bit higher as well (and it makes sense why that is, kids are training better, harder, earlier longer, and more focused than ever before. Nutrition is better, sleep is better understood, sport psychology etc).
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  14. #29
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    I consulted my Magic 8 ball (it's GR8) and it said "Too soon to tell". Huh.
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    Default Re: Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Comish View Post
    I consulted my Magic 8 ball (it's GR8) and it said "Too soon to tell". Huh.
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