Will Ovechkin pass Gretzky’s Goal Total?

[SeaDawg]

Ovy has 395 games left on his current contract.

Nice. That pretty much confirms, imo, that as long as he doesn't get injured, the record is his. Even if he doesn't break the record before this contract is up, he will be so close that he'd almost surely come back for one more season just to break the record.

I wasn't sure if anyone would break Gretzky's record in my lifetime.

[agentzero]

Will Mangiapane?….

[hockeyrobot]

Will Mangiapane?….

Monster Mantha is now going to be Monster Mangiapane.

[stevegamer]

As one of the original yes voters in this poll, I love that this thread has kept going. What's still amazing is how much time Ovechkin has missed that is due to circumstances well beyond his control in lockouts, covid, and he's still well on pace to do this in a lower goal scoring era.

Most "unbreakable" records are that way because they are set by somebody supremely talented who comes along at the right time to do it, and then often the sport changes in a way that we think the record is unbreakable. They often just require somebody who is also supremely talented and durable to eclipse them.

I do think Gretzky's total points record is really safe, unless hockey goes high scoring again. I'd guess that's the most out of reach.

My take on other sports:
Basketball: Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-62 season is crazy. 50.2 points per game, but that's more beatable than the insane 48.5 minutes per game. Basketball games are 48 minutes long, he played so much that the overtimes get him over 48 minutes per game. Nobody does anything close to that on a regular basis.

Baseball: Cy Young's wins total is much like Gretzky's points total, but way harder, as there's no way players are going to start half their teams games again. Pitching is just so different.

Football: Scoring has exploded and pace of play is high, so it's going to have to be something regarding a low score, and the 73-0 shutout back in the 1940 title game is likely going to stand as the most lopsided shutout ever.

[Invictus]

I still say Gretzky is the better goal scorer. Just think how many more he would have if he solely focused on goals. If he was the one being fed the puck to score, like Ovi is, instead of doing both.

Ovi averages 4:44 PP time a game. I don't think there's stats for Gretzky on that, but.... Ovi has 70 more PP goals then Gretzky already.
Gretzky has 73 Shorthanded goals to Ovi's 5. Easier to score on the PP, whereas Gretz is getting utilized on the defensive for the betterment of his team.

They both probably won't have crazy high GP totals.

I'm thinking of what my top 5 goal scorers would look like...

Gretzky
Lemieux
Bossy
Richard (First 50/50 also only had 50 game seasons)
Ovi
Bure
Bobby Orr (As a D-man there's no one even close)
Hull's???
No order there. I'll stop here for now. Really depends on your criteria.

[2014olympicgold]

Ovi's career, the NHL has had an average of 5.5335goals/game over 19,025 games (105,275goals)

Gretzky's career, the NHL has had an average of 6.9033goals/game over 18,669 games (128,878goals)

So across Gretzky's career, the league scored ~23,000 more goals in 356 less games. I honestly thought the difference would have been higher. But I guess the games length in the seasons pull down that number. I also wonder how much depth scoring changes things. If I was a Sportsnet employee I'd be likely counting the 4th and 3rd line guys on Ovi's and Getzky's teams to see how much even scoring has changed. Because I'm sure the style of play has shifted throughout those yrs where Gretzky scored 60% of the teams goals or something, and I would argue that's based off of talent on the bottom lines. And at 38yrs old, he played 21:04TOI and that's the only yr HockeyReference has info for. I bet he was on the ice 26minutes in his Edmonton days.

But I'll say no one in the league is as big of a goal scorer as Ovi, and I don't think anyone in the league's history loves scoring as much as Ovi. He's developed a spot that's how much he scores from there. It's like the Gretzky office behind the net for assists. It's his.

Debating these level of talents, in different eras, is impossible though. It's the MJ, LeBron debate. MJ would go out of his way to end that convo if he played vs LeBron. Different workouts/physicality of the sports. The meal plans change. The drinking during the season. Smoking. All that stuff changes things.

[saucelife90]

League Averages per game, per team. Gretzky era vs Ovi era.

Goals;
99 - 3.50
8 - 2.86

Power Play Goals
99 - 0.89
8 - 0.66

Power Play Opportunities
99 - 4.45
8 - 3.55

SV%
99 - 0.886
8 - 0.911

GAA
99 - 3.406
8 - 2.672

99 benefits from an era with more goals on average per game, more power play opportunities per game, and worse goalies.

Ovi is the best pure goal scorer of all time, the defense rests.

[2014olympicgold]

Easier to score but less games to score in.
Harder to score but more games to score in.

[SeaDawg]

Debating these level of talents, in different eras, is impossible though. It's the MJ, LeBron debate. MJ would go out of his way to end that convo if he played vs LeBron. Different workouts/physicality of the sports. The meal plans change. The drinking during the season. Smoking. All that stuff changes things.

You are absolutely correct. There are way too many factors at play. I watch the way the goalies played in Gretzky's era, and I think Ovechkin would score 100 goals against them. However, if Gretzky played in today's era, with a carbon stick and the same upbringing, diet, and training that someone like McDavid has had since his youth, Gretzky would have been an even better athlete/player.

I personally think Ovechkin is the greatest "pure" goal scorer of all time, but Invictus' logic about the way Ovechkin (and his team) focuses his effort on being a goal scorer whereas Gretzky was a pass-first player is very interesting.

[agentzero]

I’m happy to consider Ovi the best goal scorer in the history of the game.. he’s earned the distinction in my book and but for 2.5 years lost to labour stoppages, he’d already be so close to the record that he would probably eclipse it in the final years of his career near his 40s. The fact that he’s even close, given how good the goalies and systems are now, is truly remarkable.

Cross-generational arguments are nearly impossible to have, mostly due to the changes in rules, coaching and equipment. One thing I’ll look for is just how much a player stood out in his generation of peers. While ovechkin has led the league in goals a number of times, his talent doesn’t stand out as apart from his generation, but certainly the best in his generation.

Gretzky scored 400 goals in minor hockey in a single season, playing defense.

Gretzky wasn’t the best of his generation, he was of another generation entirely.

[Invictus]

and I don't think anyone in the league's history loves scoring as much as Ovi. He's developed a spot that's how much he scores from there. It's like the Gretzky office behind the net for assists. It's his.

Certainly true.
Every goal, no matter how little, brings a level of happiness to him unmatched by others.

Selanne's rookie season was also an incredible goal scoring display.

[FrozenInferno]

Gretzky wasn’t shooting at the monstrosities playing in goal these days. When he scored the most he was shooting at stand-up goalies wearing phone books for pads basically. Ovie has to stand in front of someone like Vasilevskiy who is 6’3” 225lbs with huge gear on and beat him. And he does it time and time again, from almost the same spot, for 15 years straight and still nobody can stop it.

We all love Gretzky but when it comes to pure goal scoring Ovie to me is the best.

[Invictus]

Gretzky wasn’t shooting at the monstrosities playing in goal these days. When he scored the most he was shooting at stand-up goalies wearing phone books for pads basically. Ovie has to stand in front of someone like Vasilevskiy who is 6’3” 225lbs with huge gear on and beat him. And he does it time and time again, from almost the same spot, for 15 years straight and still nobody can stop it.

We all love Gretzky but when it comes to pure goal scoring Ovie to me is the best.

Goalie equipment improved, but so did player equipment. Better sticks, stronger faster players moving the puck around so much quicker, a lot less time for goalies to react.
A well aimed pass or placed shot these days it's going in. That's what Ovi has... is a shot. But I think being a goal scorer is more than just the shot.
I think Gretzky would fair far better than Ovi at leading a low quality team, like Arizona, in goals. Coaching - that's still up for debate...

[blayze]

Hatter tonight... The man is unreal

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer in history. Period. There is no debate.

Gretzky's my favourite player of all time (see avatar) but he ain't better than the GR8 at scoring goals. Hell, scoring wasn't even the focal part of his game. He just happened to benefit from playing in an era where goals came easily.

MJ vs Lebron isn't even a debate either

[zambronies]

Ovi is unreal