Who do you keep?

[gcefaloni]

Hi guys,

I'm not making it into the playoffs this year in my cap league and I'm considering which players to keep for my core next year. The league follows the previous year's cap hits and cap ceilings from the NHL (so this year's cap ceiling is 79.5M$, next year's will be 81.5M$). It is a points only league for forwards (no assigned forward positions) and the twist for defensemen is that +/- also counts for 1 point (positive or negative) on top of normal points. It is an 18 team (11 forwards 5 Ds 2Gs) 18 player per team dynasty league where we keep 7 every year.

I already know I will keep Crosby, Sheifele and Chabot (even though he's constantly -15 -20 and it is frustrating as hell, his salary is too advantageous right now).

Now for the other 4 players, which 4 would you keep between the following players given that it is a cap league? Keep in mind that good offensive Ds are very hard to draft but that the +/- twist for Ds makes them a volatile commodity.

Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Clayton Keller (21y, 885k for 1 more year, then 7.1M$ for 8 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years, then RFA)
Tyler Seguin (27y, 9.85M$ for 7 more years)
Ryan Pulock (25y, 2M$ for 1 more year, then RFA)
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA)

4 of the above will be added to the bottom 3 keepers

Sidney Crosby (32y, 8.7M$ for 8 more years)
Mark Scheifele (26y, 6.1M$ for 5 more years)
Thomas Chabot (20y, 900k for 1 more year, then 8 years at 8M$ for Mr. minuses as i call him)

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for the input!!

[Moses]

Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Clayton Keller (21y, 885k for 1 more year, then 7.1M$ for 8 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years)
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA)
Sidney Crosby (32y, 8.7M$ for 8 more years)
Mark Scheifele (26y, 6.1M$ for 5 more years)

I’d be looking at this group.

[gcefaloni]

Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Clayton Keller (21y, 885k for 1 more year, then 7.1M$ for 8 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years)
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA)
Sidney Crosby (32y, 8.7M$ for 8 more years)
Mark Scheifele (26y, 6.1M$ for 5 more years)

I’d be looking at this group.

Yea that's 6 forwards and 1 D.. I'd want at the very minimum 2 Ds.. Too difficult to draft 40-50 points defensemen after the first couple of rounds in this league.. And there are vastly more forwards available between the 65 to 55 points range than there are between the 50 to 35 points range amongst Ds.. so the replacement value difference in forwards is much smaller than it is for Ds I feel like...

[LuigiC173]

Miller, Tkachuk, Hamilton

[finnys_fanatsy]

Hammy Lindholm Tkachuk for me plus Keller or Miller pending on cap issues

[stevegamer]

Figuring that 1 point per $100,000 seems to be a guideline, I'd keep the following:

D:
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA) admittedly he may not get you 52 points, but he should be close witht henew deployment if he makes a good recovery.

F: All should outperform that benchmark.
Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years, then RFA)

I'd probably look to move Chabot sometime next season, unless you can make sure to have enough cap space to cover his scoring shortfall.

[gcefaloni]

Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Clayton Keller (21y, 885k for 1 more year, then 7.1M$ for 8 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years)
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA)
Sidney Crosby (32y, 8.7M$ for 8 more years)
Mark Scheifele (26y, 6.1M$ for 5 more years)

I’d be looking at this group.

Miller, Tkachuk, Hamilton

Hammy Lindholm Tkachuk for me plus Keller or Miller pending on cap issues

Figuring that 1 point per $100,000 seems to be a guideline, I'd keep the following:

D:
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA) admittedly he may not get you 52 points, but he should be close witht henew deployment if he makes a good recovery.

F: All should outperform that benchmark.
Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
J.T. Miller (26y, 5.2M$, signed for 4 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years, then RFA)

I'd probably look to move Chabot sometime next season, unless you can make sure to have enough cap space to cover his scoring shortfall.

Ok, so following up on your replies.. I have traded Miller + Pulock for Dylan Strome and a 1st round pick (out of the non-keepers).

So would you pick a different 4 out of this new list of the remaining players?:

Elias Lindholm (25y, 4.8M$, signed for 5 more years)
Dylan Strome (22y, 863k for 1 more year, then RFA)
Clayton Keller (21y, 885k for 1 more year, then 7.1M$ for 8 more years)
Brady Tkachuk (20y, 925k for 2 more years, then RFA)
Tyler Seguin (27y, 9.85M$ for 7 more years)
Dougie Hamilton (5.2M$ for 2 more years, then UFA)

[Moses]

Yea that's 6 forwards and 1 D.. I'd want at the very minimum 2 Ds.. Too difficult to draft 40-50 points defensemen after the first couple of rounds in this league.. And there are vastly more forwards available between the 65 to 55 points range than there are between the 50 to 35 points range amongst Ds.. so the replacement value difference in forwards is much smaller than it is for Ds I feel like...

It is a points only league for forwards (no assigned forward positions) and the twist for defensemen is that +/- also counts for 1 point (positive or negative) on top of normal points.

Chabot has 27 points this year and is -18, making him a 9 point D man this year so far, correct? I know that +/- is fickle and I know that Ottawa's PP is hot garbage (12.2%) but do you see a huge change with Chabot or Ottawa in the near future? Honest question. Is Chabot a 50 point D man in your settings moving forward?

[stevegamer]

I'll let you make the call between Strome, Keller, & Seguin. I'd probably lean to "not Keller."

[Moses]

I'll let you make the call between Strome, Keller, & Seguin. I'd probably lean to "not Keller."

I dunno, in a point's only league cap league, Keller at $885K is arguably the most valuable of the three. I am not a huge Keller guy, but you can't ignore that contract. Seguin (comparable points to Keller -- 36 to 33) is 1112% more expensive than Keller.

[stevegamer]

I dunno, in a point's only league cap league, Keller at $885K is arguably the most valuable of the three. I am not a huge Keller guy, but you can't ignore that contract. Seguin (comparable points to Keller -- 36 to 33) is 1112% more expensive than Keller.

To me it's the years after that could be the issue. I do see not wanting to keep Seguin at that price, but it depends on what he thinks about Seguins' certainty versus Keller's upside. Honestly, I much preferred Miller over both.

[gcefaloni]

To me it's the years after that could be the issue. I do see not wanting to keep Seguin at that price, but it depends on what he thinks about Seguins' certainty versus Keller's upside. Honestly, I much preferred Miller over both.

I don't have a crystal ball.. But I see Seguin as a 75-80 pts guy at 9.8M$. So below your stated 1pt per 100k$ threshold. I'm not sure what Keller's upside is.. I'm salivating when I see poeple thinking he can be an 80pt guy sooner rather than later but I still see him as a 65pt guy at 900k for now.. I'm hoping he can reach 70 before turning to 7M$ contract which I'm hoping would then feel like a good contract relative to a lot of the new contracts being signed nowadays. As for Miller, I kinda fell for the "sell high" situation that allowed me to get Dylan Strome which I feel has as high a ceiling as Miller if not higher but for 900k next year and is playing 1C for Chicago with P. Kane AND a 1st rounder.. Pulock nobody seemed to be high on so I decided he would be expandable. I'm wondering however how to get a reliable D since everybody seems to be hating on Chabot.. and nobody around the league wants to trade offensive Ds.. the +/- is killing me right now though as Moses pointed out.

[yannews]

Tkachuk, Hamilton

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[Eskimo Brother]

The way to go would have been keeping Pulock and trading Chabot in my opinion. Chabot is going to be a terrible performer next year with the minuses again, and then he's goingto be a crazy expensive Dman, and you will get more value out of fringe guys like Justin Schultz and maybe even Cody Ceci because of that plus-minus rule (assuming Ceci re-signs with a positive +/- team).

So trade Chabot while he has some value (get another dman back).

Keepers become
Defence received for Chabot
Hamilton
Crosby
Scheifele
Tkachuk
Keller
Lindholm

[gcefaloni]

The way to go would have been keeping Pulock and trading Chabot in my opinion. Chabot is going to be a terrible performer next year with the minuses again, and then he's goingto be a crazy expensive Dman, and you will get more value out of fringe guys like Justin Schultz and maybe even Cody Ceci because of that plus-minus rule (assuming Ceci re-signs with a positive +/- team).

So trade Chabot while he has some value (get another dman back).

Keepers become
Defence received for Chabot
Hamilton
Crosby
Scheifele
Tkachuk
Keller
Lindholm

Linked to the trade I mentioned in one of my replies; do you prefer Dylan Strome to Keller or Tkachuk? Or your choice of Keller and Brady Tkachuk already took into consideration that I had acquired Dylan Strome and you purposedly left him on the side?