Is This Too Much for Pasta?

[SergeP]

NOT the league in my signature but a 16 team DYNASTY league with an identical scoring and roster set-up.

I've been in discussions with the Pastrnak owner about what it would take to acquire him. He's told me he would consider the following:

W. Nylander + Keller + Tippett + 2020 1st
for
Pastrnak

The 2020 1st belongs to a bottom team that is currently second last in the league and a lock to finish in the bottom 4-5, likely 2nd last. We use a lotto system for the draft where teams in the league are matched with an NHL team based on order of finish. So the pick is a near-lock to be top 5 and has a high probability of being top 2.

In a dynasty league this feels like too much. I know Keller, Tippett and the pick are all unproven assets but I believe they all have a very high likelihood of being very good in the not-so-distant future. Should I hold here or bite the bullet and acquire the surefire stud?

Rep will be given to the top 1200 responses.

[Axeman33]

I'd call it an overpayment, but to be fair, an overpayment is pretty much what it would take if you want to acquire him in any league with decent GMs.

[Gretzky99Orr4]

I don't mind that deal. would try to make the pick a 2nd or get him to give a pick back maybe 4th or 5th round.

[Kofax]

First of all, now is a bad time to be buying Pastrnak. This year is probably a bad year to buy him.

Second, how big are your rosters? I am guessing this is a pretty deep league, so mid tier players like Nylander and Keller have more value and the value of the top tier talent drops off a bit.

Third, I see no mention of cap, so I'm assuming no cap. I only bring this up because that 1st round pick and Tippett gain more value in a cap league.

Assuming it's a deep league, I pass here mainly due to the 1st rounder having a chance at 1st or 2nd overall. If you get rid of that and have a decent fill-in option for Keller, I would strongly consider it.

[SergeP]

First of all, now is a bad time to be buying Pastrnak. This year is probably a bad year to buy him.

Second, how big are your rosters? I am guessing this is a pretty deep league, so mid tier players like Nylander and Keller have more value and the value of the top tier talent drops off a bit.

Third, I see no mention of cap, so I'm assuming no cap. I only bring this up because that 1st round pick and Tippett gain more value in a cap league.

Assuming it's a deep league, I pass here mainly due to the 1st rounder having a chance at 1st or 2nd overall. If you get rid of that and have a decent fill-in option for Keller, I would strongly consider it.

You're correct, not a cap league. We start 12F/6D/2G and have 8 bench spots along with a 12 man minor league roster so it's a deep league, the waiver wire is pretty bare.

I had originally offered Keller + Nylander + Tippett which he turned down saying he needed the pick but I'm of the opinion that the top 2 guys in this year's draft have a very good chance of being in that Pasta/Matthews/Pettersen (etc.) class of players.

[Bubba55]

Are you confident that this move wins you a championship this year? That's an important question. If that first turns out to be a top two pick, then you indeed paid a huge price. However, if your wearing "the belt" it takes the pain out of it. It would be helpful if we knew what your team actually looks like, how strong your roster, your bench and the farm are. That goes a long way in determining whether losing Keller, Tippett and Nylander plus an elite prospect makes some sense. I think we need more info here to be able to give a solid response. However, I say do the deal if you are confident it puts you over the top. If your not that confident, I'd pass.

[Belexus75]

i dont think its Overpayment ...unless that pick is top 2 i would do that deal...

[SergeP]

Are you confident that this move wins you a championship this year? That's an important question. If that first turns out to be a top two pick, then you indeed paid a huge price. However, if your wearing "the belt" it takes the pain out of it. It would be helpful if we knew what your team actually looks like, how strong your roster, your bench and the farm are. That goes a long way in determining whether losing Keller, Tippett and Nylander plus an elite prospect makes some sense. I think we need more info here to be able to give a solid response. However, I say do the deal if you are confident it puts you over the top. If your not that confident, I'd pass.

We're a H2H total points format (not categories) and right now I'm 8-0 on the season and in first by a slim margin. There is one other 8-0 team and a couple of 7-1 teams. Our championship is determined via H2H playoffs for the top 8 regular season finishers, so regardless of how strong your team is, anything can happen in the playoffs.

Here is my full roster:
Forwards: Draisaitl, Laine, Marner, Aho, Huberdeau, Pettersen, A. Svechnikov, Nylander, Arvidsson, Keller, Garland, Lehkonen, Brassard, Dvorak, N. Paul
Defense: Rielly, Jones, DeAngelo, Trouba, Dumba, Klingberg, Weegar, Matheson
Goalie: Helly, Gibson, Murray, Miller, Driedger
Farm: Tippett, Jenik, Klostin, E. Svechnikov, Kylington, M. Mcloed, A. Thomas, Khovanov, Tarasov, C. Point, A. Hill, Werner

[blayze]

I wouldn't do that... it's too much.

Pasta is incredible but he will regress - you're buying at the absolute ceiling.

[Kofax]

So it's looking something like:

W. Nylander (65 / 43 RoS) + Keller (65 / 40 RoS) = (130 long term / 83 RoS)
(I do think Keller can improve on being a 65 point player and that there's upside for Nylander too, say 140 long term)

Pastrnak (100 / 60 RoS) + Dvorak (60 / 27 RoS) = (155 long term / 87 RoS)
(I do think Dvorak can be a 60 point player long term and that Pastrnak could maintain 100, but it will be harder)

I think long term Pastrnak + Extra can outpoint Nylander + Keller, but then there's the chance that the high 1st pans out and it doesn't, but I don't think they'll get much more then them this year. I don't think it's worth the extra cost of Tippet and the high 1st in this league.

[SergeP]

So it's looking something like:

W. Nylander (65 / 43 RoS) + Keller (65 / 40 RoS) = (130 long term / 83 RoS)
(I do think Keller can improve on being a 65 point player and that there's upside for Nylander too, say 140 long term)

Pastrnak (100 / 60 RoS) + Dvorak (60 / 27 RoS) = (155 long term / 87 RoS)
(I do think Dvorak can be a 60 point player long term and that Pastrnak could maintain 100, but it will be harder)

I think long term Pastrnak + Extra can outpoint Nylander + Keller, but then there's the chance that the high 1st pans out and it doesn't, but I don't think they'll get much more then them this year. I don't think it's worth the extra cost of Tippet and the high 1st in this league.

Thanks, that's where I'm leaning too. I still believe Keller can and will be closer to a ppg guy long term. I let the other GM know that I'd do Willy + Keller + Tippett and include another pick that is basically guaranteed to fall somewhere in the 17-21 overall range. I still think it's a bit steep but I have a legit shot at winning this year and this helps now. No response yet.

[SergeP]

Deal is done. I sent Keller + Nylander + Tippett + 2 second rounders (one will be 17-21 overall and the other will be late 20's early 30's overall) for Pasta and a 3rd (late 30's to 48 overall). Steep price but I got the best player in a year where I'm contending and managed to keep my blue chip first round pick. Might hurt a bit in 2-3 seasons but for now I like it a lot.

[Bubba55]

Good Job! I think everyone was pretty much agreed that the deal was worth doing with the exception of that very high first rounder. Moving your second fixed that problem! Hopefully this puts you over the top, good luck!

[Kofax]

Agreed. Now that one of those extras can potentially be that 1st/2nd overall, that shifts things to the Pastrnak side. Here's hoping that pans out for you.

[blayze]

Good outcome. Be prepared for regression nevertheless.