Seems steep? Valuing Malkin is difficult eh? - REP

[FinnishFlash]

So, a guy in my dynasty league has been approaching me over the past 2 seasons really trying to trade Malkin to me. The price has always been high, and I've been so deep at C that it just never made any sense for me to pursue. This week, Seguin out of nowhere got RW status - I don't agree with it, but I'll take it. This got me thinking that I could slide Seguin to RW, and try to pick up another elite C - particularly helpful with FOW.

I turned down this offer a few weeks ago, but thinking about going back to see if there is something to be had. Malkin's injury history scares me a little, and he is getting older - I'm looking to 3-peat, and think I can without Malkin, but anything that helps the chances is worth doing right? And we all know, if Malkin is healthy he is a game changer, I'm just not sure its worth depleting the cupboards to this degree.

This was the offer a few weeks ago:

I get: Malkin and Gardiner (who would be a drop)
I give: Gustaffsson, Gusev, Newhook, N. Robertson, 2020 2nd, 2021 2nd.

Seemed steep to me. Ideally, I'd like to wait until closer to our deadline to make a big move (esp. given Malkin's propensity for getting hurt) but I do want to keep talks going so I can be ahead of the discussion should a bidding war start - I'd rather be the guy with Malkin in the playoffs and not playing against him. But also, don't really want to be the guy that paid a fortune to sit him on the IR lol.

Thoughts? Will REP everywhere I can.

[Doug Glatt]

The guy who has Malkin in the playoffs is usually the one holding a consolation trophy. Look at the data and you will see Geno is a huge dud in the H2H fantasy playoffs. He's the Band Aid Boy who lights up your IR in March and April.

[jdreed3184]

I think this is a win for you.

The cost is more than reasonable - every one of those players are leagues below Malkin for the next 3 years.

I wouldn’t worry about playoffs. If Malkin disappears, this is still a win for you and Gustafsson and Gusev aren’t going to be game changers IMO.

Not sure if you can get this trade back with the year Gus and Gusev are having but I’d certainly try - even adding a sweetener to get it done if needed.

[stevegamer]

That first offer you got wasn't steep for an elite player in your format, but it gave you positional issues. I'd definitely revisit it, and aim to get something done. Try removing Gardiner and a prospect or pick from what you are giving.

Normally Doug & I think alike, but I know Malkin is miles better than anyone you are giving up in terms of value this year, so he can only help your title chances, unless Gustafsson goes bonkers, and Malkin gets hurt very soon for the rest of the year.

[FinnishFlash]

Thanks guys. He is understandably less interested in Gus now, but talks continue. He really wants a 1st included but unfortunately I have none of those.

As an aside, I do suspect that this will put me in a positional crunch next year, as I highly doubt that Aho, Seguin and Giroux all get wing eligibility next season. I guess if I can claim another title, who cares.

[als_revenge]

Thanks guys. He is understandably less interested in Gus now, but talks continue. He really wants a 1st included but unfortunately I have none of those.

As an aside, I do suspect that this will put me in a positional crunch next year, as I highly doubt that Aho, Seguin and Giroux all get wing eligibility next season. I guess if I can claim another title, who cares.

Think about your title first. If position eligibility changes, you can always make some trades in the off season.

[stevegamer]

I think you need to find out something that works for both of you, because this is a good deal.

Think about your title first. If position eligibility changes, you can always make some trades in the off season.

This is true, and I'd be shocked if Giroux didn't keep wing eligibility next year.

[Kofax]

Thanks guys. He is understandably less interested in Gus now, but talks continue. He really wants a 1st included but unfortunately I have none of those.

As an aside, I do suspect that this will put me in a positional crunch next year, as I highly doubt that Aho, Seguin and Giroux all get wing eligibility next season. I guess if I can claim another title, who cares.

This is what I was thinking. I would have taken the deal at the time, but given the amount of time that has passed and the catostrophic starts from Gustaffsson and Gusev, I doubted it was going to be enough now.

I also have the same concerns regarding Malkin and the fantasy playoffs, but you need to get there first, and this price was so reasonable it didn't bother me.

Keep working and come back with an updated deal.

[Gretzky99Orr4]

Couldn't you include a 1st the next year? If he is so bent out of shape about getting a first?

[Kofax]

Couldn't you include a 1st the next year? If he is so bent out of shape about getting a first?

He doesn't have any.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Thanks guys. He is understandably less interested in Gus now, but talks continue. He really wants a 1st included but unfortunately I have none of those.

As an aside, I do suspect that this will put me in a positional crunch next year, as I highly doubt that Aho, Seguin and Giroux all get wing eligibility next season. I guess if I can claim another title, who cares.

The bolded above is the key to fantasy hockey success. We put WAY too much weight on future seasons and future production. If your team is contending (passes the eye test for sure) then you're giving up close to nothing for an elite player.

I'm now going to make a couple assumptions based on the roster you've got in your sig: this is a keep-all dynasty, and you start 4 of each forward position and 6 D. I'm also going to assume you can mitigate injuries with IR slots and WW pickups, based on the names on your bench. Here's what "valuable" should mean to you: someone who could potentially bump one of your starters or the first layer of bench within the next three years. Let's recap

Newhook = not valuable within a 3 year period, very low chance he's a starter or "1st layer" bench
N. Robertson = ditto
2020 2nd = almost zero chance meets your value threshold
2021 2nd = almost zero chance
Gusev = potentially meets the value threshold, could go as high as your #4 LW
Gustafsson = your #6 D based on how he's playing this year, could have been as high as your #4 D

So a whole whack of spare parts for an elite centre. Why did this seem steep to you?

Even if you have to toss in your 2021 1st, this is an easy trade to make.