The Carlson and Pastrnak conundrum

[bvandyk]

I own Carlson and Pastrnak. Given the hot starts, and the multiple Ramblings on 'Sell High', I'm wondering if anyone has successfully traded either player for a great haul?
I've tried to entertain it, and I can't really find a fit. Maybe Pastrnak for MacKinnon. But I drafted Pastrnak 8th overall believing him to be a 50 goal scorer this year and it looks like that's panning out. But I'm interested to see returns, because it might be worth a shot.

Carlson I'm more into trading as my D is weaker (Ghost will be dropped with Zibby comes back, and De Haan is just a rotating/stat filler spot).
The obvious sell high is Burns, but I know the owner won't go for it.
So the question then is, can I get a 241 deal? Which would help boost my D.
Any thoughts on targets? Maybe a D and a forward? 2 D?
Interested to hear thoughts.

[chinesespy]

So I was in a similar situation trying to sell high with Carlson. Also did not get the Burns owner to bite on a 1 for 1. Ended up trading Draisaitl and Carlson for Ovechkin and Josi.

[Axeman33]

I'll be surprised if anyone is willing to pay enough for Carlson that it improves your D. Im sure you will find a buyer, but Im not sure you'll win the trade and really improve your D. Maybe try moving Carlson for a solid D and a better LW. Meier and Nuge havent been lighting it up like most expected so far this year.

[Pengwin7]

Best thing to do with hot players is to simply put them on your trade block.
GMs that are willing to "buy high" will approach you.

Sending out your "hot" player in an offer straight-up reeks of "I don't think this guy can keep it up, but I'll find out if you are a sucker to believe it."
It will leave a bad taste, especially when the player cools off.

[anthonybeaty]

But I drafted Pastrnak 8th overall believing him to be a 50 goal scorer this year and it looks like that's panning out.

Don't be silly. Since 2013, only 2 players have broken 50 goals. OV (3-4 times) and Draisaitl once. Pastrnak hasn't ever broken 40 goals. You might say that he would have broken 40 had he played all 82 games last year, but out of 5 full seasons in the NHL, he has only played 82 games once so missing games at some point is likely.

Is Pastrnak a prolific scorer who is finally coming out of his shell in his 6th season or he is starting on a tear the likes of which hasn't been seen since Gretzky scored 50 in 50?

I am happy for you that he is doing so well, but I believe you slightly over paid for him at 8. Here are guys I would have taken ahead of Pastrnak:

Nikita Kucherov TB
Connor McDavid Edm
Alex Ovechkin Was
Nathan MacKinnon Col
Sidney Crosby Pit
Patrick Kane Chi
Brad Marchand Bos
Auston Matthews Tor
Leon Draisaitl Edm

and maybe:

Brent Burns SJ
Andrei Vasilevskiy TB
Steven Stamkos TB

Even if is 8 is high, he goes by 12 in almost every draft, therefore the only guys who he is worth trading for are on the above list. He is not in the same conversation as:

Nikita Kucherov TB
Connor McDavid Edm
Nathan MacKinnon Col

and is out performing everyone else and so any trade is going to be difficult.

[anthonybeaty]

So I was in a similar situation trying to sell high with Carlson. Also did not get the Burns owner to bite on a 1 for 1. Ended up trading Draisaitl and Carlson for Ovechkin and Josi.

I don't think that was a good trade for you. Carlson has outpointed Josi for the last 2 seasons by a wide margin (10+ points each season). I take Carlson over Josi all day long and twice on Sunday.

Draisaitl is playing with the best player in the world who loves to pass the puck - someone has to score goals on McDavid's passes. I wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl get 45+ goals. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Draisaitl score more goals than OV. Either way, I think they'll be very close in goals again this season.

OV is the best natural goal scorer of this generation, but he is getting older (i.e. has to slow down at some point) and isn't a great passer. A lot of his assists come from rebounds. OV will probably get more goals than Draisaitl, but will almost certainly get fewer points. OV will get lots more shots and hits. He will get a few more blocks too.

I honestly might take Draisaitl straight up over OV depending on your league's scoring.

[chinesespy]

Thanks for your insight. Draisaitl is currently ranked 3rd in my league while scoring at a 140 pt pace. I don't know if he will be able to keep that up. Ovi is ranked 5th right now but basically putting up similar pace to last year. Ovi finished last year ranked 2nd behind Kucherov. Having SOG and Hits as categories really boost his value. For reference Carlson is ranked 6th and Josi is ranked 11th right now. I think both these defenceman won't be able to keep up their scoring paces. I knew when I accepted the trade that I would be losing assists for sure and gaining SOG and Hits. Hoping goals, +/- and PPP will be close to a wash.

[lucafen4]

Carlson, even when he slows down is still going to have a 70+pt season. if he reverts to last years pace of .82pt/gm - he'll land you a 77pt season.
Pasta... well that Pasta-Marchand combo is insane. 100+pt season isn't really possible - considering he only needs a pt/gm pace rest of season to reach it.
While taking him at #8 appears to be a reach. Early indications it was the right reach and a hunch that is paying huge dividends so far.

One thing that really needs to be pointed out - this is a one year league.
Hot players - career years - help propel you into the championships.

Neither of these players are players I fear of massive second half slumps. Regression to career average paces - yeah, I can see that.
I think you just keep playing with house money.

I'm not moving Pasta in a 1yr league for anything.

Carlson, I'd take Peng's advice and put him on the block - let others chase you for the return you want. Worst case scenario - you're stuck with a 70+pt Dman this season.