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Thread: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    I actually ran the numbers. It really depends if you think he's going to average 2 shots/g (which would bring him down in line to his career average) or 3 shots/g (which would bring him to his highest shot total of the last 4 years) or 4 shots/g (which would basically mean Neal is a different player than he's ever been ever.) Then it depends if you think he's going to shoot around 8% (which would have him end the year around his career average) or 12% (his career average) or 16% (his career high).

    #Math would suggest 2.35 shots/g (~200 total) at 9.7% (to bring season shooting % to 12) which would produce 24 total goals at the end of the year. So if you're still betting on the over 20, you're either betting that he's going to play 82 games for the first time in 4 years, or you're betting that at 32 he's going to start playing like he's 28 again, or you're betting that he's actually a completely different player than he's ever been and he's better than he was in his prime.
    I hear you and I completely get where you’re coming from but for a simpleton like me, I’m betting he finds success and overachieves due to the basic fact he should get consistent+opportunistic time alongside McDavid...the real deal James Neal. What a lucky SOB. First got to tag along with the then greatest player in the world, Sid, and now gets a chance to do it again with McDavid.


    I think of it similar to when he was playing with Sid/Geno except, he’ll be relied on 10x more being on the most depleted winger group in the league. At least the Pens had other options besides Neal. The Oilers - who can they go to? Chiasson...Granlund...Nygard...Jurco? It’s just absolutely pathetic. Other than Neal, Kassian is arguably their best winger which says a lot because he’s nothing more than an inconsistent middle 6er. The guys listed before that are all bonafide bottom 6 wingers.

    So you have Kassian who just barely qualifies as a 2nd liner being a middle 6er. And that leaves you with Neal being the only real top6 talent outside of centre. One has to guess at that point that he’ll be force-fed opportunity after opportunity and relied on heavily. I mean, Edmonton just doesn’t have any better option to turn to.
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    LOL - exactly! Great to have the season start and get into a Flames / Oilers argument. This is one reason why these teams don't trade with one another... and might be the last deal for a very long time!

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    I actually ran the numbers. It really depends if you think he's going to average 2 shots/g (which would bring him down in line to his career average) or 3 shots/g (which would bring him to his highest shot total of the last 4 years) or 4 shots/g (which would basically mean Neal is a different player than he's ever been ever.) Then it depends if you think he's going to shoot around 8% (which would have him end the year around his career average) or 12% (his career average) or 16% (his career high).

    #Math would suggest 2.35 shots/g (~200 total) at 9.7% (to bring season shooting % to 12) which would produce 24 total goals at the end of the year. So if you're still betting on the over 20, you're either betting that he's going to play 82 games for the first time in 4 years, or you're betting that at 32 he's going to start playing like he's 28 again, or you're betting that he's actually a completely different player than he's ever been and he's better than he was in his prime.
    Did you factor in the 'playing with McDavid and Draisaitl part' into your #math? Or did you conveniently ignore that variable?
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    All this math and percentages is making my brain hurt. I am 13 and in the 8th grade and Math is my worse subject. Let me try and make it simple. The Oilers have played 3 games so far. They play 82 games in the NHL each season. 82 minus 3 is 79 games left. James Neal already has 6 goals under his belt. This thread is talking about him reaching 30 goals. That means he needs 24 more goals in that 79 games. Not even doing that Math it seems like playing with teammates like McDavid and Draisaitl it will be pretty simple. This is how a kid thinks.

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Question: Mackenzie? And/or Weegar?

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Did you factor in the 'playing with McDavid and Draisaitl part' into your #math? Or did you conveniently ignore that variable?
    Right because he’s never played with good line mates before (not to mention he’s not playing with them at EV now anyways)

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    ^Tbf Neal will be in an out with those guys (McD/Drai) at ES as line juggling continues but he’ll still get identical PP time as them which is more than a fair trade off if he’s not going to play ES all the time - at least not yet. Minimum 3+ minutes of PP1 time is pretty substantial wouldn’t you say?
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    In the seasons that he played with Crosby, he averaged a point-per-game and 0.5 G/game. This is fun. I forgot what we were arguing about.
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    In the seasons that he played with Crosby, he averaged a point-per-game and 0.5 G/game. This is fun. I forgot what we were arguing about.
    When did he play with Crosby? Didn't happen.

    Anyways. If you think 25 year old James Neal and 32 year old James Neal are the same player, should bet the over on 60 points for Marleau. He's back in SJ with Thronton right?

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    The big reveal here is Moses doesn't believe aging curves exist

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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    The big reveal here is Moses doesn't believe aging curves exist
    I don’t think anyone is saying that. Might have more to do with you not acknowledging that he’s going to get crucial playing time one way or another with McDavid and/or Draisaitl.

    As I mentioned in OP, Neal has scored 20+ goals in 7 consecutive seasons with the exception of last year. And it wasn’t entirely his fault that the Flames coach didn’t trust to deploy him in advantageous positions where he could succeed. So far, it’s looking like last season was an outlier. I refuse to believe Neal fell so suddenly and drastically from the player he’s been his entire career (a 20+ goal scorer) and he’s out proving it atm irregardless of what you’re trying to downplay/turn a blind eye to, with all due respect.
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    Right because he’s never played with good line mates before (not to mention he’s not playing with them at EV now anyways)
    I'd argue strongly that playing with McDavid is better than any other line mate he's had regularly. If he sticks with him all season this is a huge plus. It's early and lots could still happen.

    Another huge factor is pp1 and ice time over 18 min per game so far. He hasn't seen that for a while. Again if it sticks, given the 6 he already has 30 is extremely reachable.

    The over under at this stage three games in should probably be closer to 35.
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by MZac View Post
    I'd argue strongly that playing with McDavid is better than any other line mate he's had regularly.
    To be fair, Neal did spend a good chunk of time with Malkin and Crosby.
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    The big reveal here is Moses doesn't believe aging curves exist
    That's a good line. *chuckle*
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    Default Re: James Neal over/under 30 goals (playing with McDavid)

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    To be fair, Neal did spend a good chunk of time with Malkin and Crosby.

    Mostly Malkin (nothing wrong with that) but I'd still say playing beside McDavid now is a better spot. Even if you dont think mcdavid is a better player than Malkin or if you think it's negligible, Goalie equipment is smaller, there are more pp opportunities, scoring is up.

    Maybe that's all balanced by Neals age and other factors but we could have a legit discussion on which spot is more favorable. He also put up his claim to faim 40 goal 81 point season with Malkin.

    Anything can happen but the fact is he's pacing for 164 goals...




    I kid of course.. About the last part anyway .
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