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Thread: Moving the ghost of a bear...

  1. #1
    Fighting_Emu's Avatar
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    Default Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Gostisbehere that is!!

    So i want to start by pointing out this is in the salary cap/dynasty section and I love him in this format!! I aim for 10 points per million and the beauty of his contract that even in a year where he really struggled he still basically met that- 4.5 = an expectation of 45- but by the time you factor in that points are harder to come accross for d-men and his peripherals hes more than fine at that range. The absolute beauty of this is that hes signed there for four more years. Many people have expressed concern over him on an AV coached team but I want to clarify that even at 50 with those peripherals thats exceptional value and if a new coach comes in, a trade is made, or Vigneault plays againast type and favors one dman with offensive deployment- that 60+ potential is ridiculous value. i own Ghost in three leagues and would have a much, much easier time trading him in my non-cap leagues. im hoping that if people choose to weigh in (and I hope they do) that theyre cognizant of the cap implications- how favorable his contract is.

    This has been offered:

    Ghost 4.5 Heed 0.9 Maroon 0.9
    For
    Eckholm 3.75 Toffoli 4.6 R Strome 3.1

    So first things first. Im at the cap already. Strome (who ill talk about would have to start on my bench)- and id have to get creative to include Toffoli which likely means trading Tyler Johnson for cheaper contracts and or futures- this is not always easy to do in this league. part of my homework is crunching numbers top see if I can do this and i thought getting some feedback concurrently would help. If Im barking up the wrong tree I dont have to get so creative- but if theres merit here- maybe worth pursuing.

    ThePremise- Ghost VS Ekholm:

    The first thing to keep in mind is that were dealing with two different animals. Although were going to end up with similar stats based on last season they got there in very different ways. Ghost is younger and already has a 60+ season under his belt. The obvious concern here is that he could get there again. There are factors that i think are holding him back in the short term- aka Vigneault- but hes signed for 4 seasons at a steal of a deal and Id hate to see him traded somewhere where hes top dog on the PP and ends up in Klingberg territory. thats the biggest concern for me. On the flip side I get nervous when players are still being pegged as one dimensional this late in their careers. they might not be perfect comparables but i look at Shattenkirk and to some extent Yandle where your always worried because deployment is absolutely critical to their success. Also you have to wonder if the season he scored 65 was the outlier as literally every one of his counting stats popped and he hasnt replicated the same point or even sog totals since. There seems to be a good year, bad year narrative but Im not sure I buy it. Since his breakout in 2015 hes posted 46, 39, 65 and now 37. i know its early in his young career and you dont want to start writing his projections down in pen until you firmly rule out an offensive breakout at some point but you could look at thos numbers and make a very different argument, which is that hes a 40ish point dman who had one season where everything went right and he exploded for a career year. If thats the case I was late to the party and overpaid for him in all four leagues i play in- lmao!!

    Ekholm basically posted career numbers last year. At 29 your not expecting a big step forward but theres a reasonable hope that this is closer to his new normal. having posted many 35,23, and 34 the prior three seasons we do see some volatility in the scoring department. Id be hoping for 35 as a floor while optimistically pencilling him down for 40. the other clear hit in my format is sogs. Ghost is good for 200 (and sometimes more) wheras Ekholms career high is in the 145 range, in fact Im more comfortable putting him in just over the 1.5 sog per game club. For dmen thats not as bad as forwards but its not especially desirable. there are two saving graces here though: his pims and his contract. He's generally good for 45-55 which is a noticable margin ahead of ghost who settles in generally in the 20-25 range. Our scoring is a little bit archaic but the fallout of that is that with 8 skater cats- they end up having a pretty significant impact. lastly is the savings of three quarters of a million. Its not a ton but every penny counts.

    I think the narrative here is probably that its a relatively even swap in a very short timeline. My defense is buoyed by some very strong scoring, but there is a valid concern that this is both selling low on ghost AND buying high on Ekholm. In order for this to be a net gain it comes down to what you think of the other swaps. im not sure myseld so im going to present my case for the assets and then hopefully add a poll at the top if I figure out how- lol!!


    Toffoli Troubles and a Very Late Bloomer

    So theres been a surprising amount of digital ink spilled over Toffoli which maybe isn't that surprising for a guy who posted 34 points in a year he was supposed to breakout. the thing is- the whole team struggledto score like crazy last year and the worst part is- they didnt even win games doing it. I think there will be major changes and although nobody willo mistake the lumbering Kings for the Maple Leafs, I think there will be a healthy rebound accross the board. In theory if you just "erase" last year- youre looking at a 47 point player who posted 250 sogs going into a prime year and virtually locked into a scoring role. Hes already posted a 60 plus point season as well. I think a very good comparable going into this year would have been Palmieri. His production would be a great value at his price point as well. Again if we take out out magic eraser then a 50 point player who can hit 60 in any given year, provides above average sog totals, and still has true breakout potential to the tune of 70 points is a fantastic own. The other big temptation for me is that as bad as last season was there is some "icing on the cake" for cap leaguers- it likely means that even if he bounces back next year hes probably going to have to take a haircut on his next contract. That might mean a short (even one year) bridge or it might mean term closer to 5-6 million than 8 million which would be ideal. i am NOT a cap expert at all- Im just saying if we take out last year his point per dollar rate has been pretty good already, and his next contract will actually end up more favorable due to his poor season.

    So outside of very deep formats like ours heed probably gets very little play. Hes currently on my farm but would be my first call up. Things to keep in mind he is 28 already whioch is an odd age to be looking for a breakout but he was a very late bloomer to begin with. the thing is he didnt even come to NA until 3 seasons ago and all he did was destroy the AHL to the tune of 56 points in 55 games as a Dman. Secondly people might look at his sog totals and have some reluctance. the thing is though those are coming off 14 minute nights and transitioning from a pure "rover' game he played in the A to a more structured game especially considering he spends a fair bit of time with Burns and Karlsson. To be clear not only should those numbers improve, they should improve in abundance. The AHL doesnt count sogs but hes known as a very prolific volume shooter with a cannon of a shot hence the aptly applied moniker "Howitzer Heed". I think he took a short contract with the understanding hed be given more TOI to showcase his abilities so that he has more options next time around where he can sign with a team that leans on him more for offensive. I see him a lot like Colin Miller but with maybe even a tad more upside- especially in peripherals.

    In closing Ive talked myself into liking Toffoli this year but Im also more reticent to moving Heed. Ghost to Ekholm is a very clear drop in upside. I know this GM is very much in a "win now" mode and not adverse to adding vets on friendly contracts as he not only owns Perry but was bullish on keeping him (not saying that in a negative way- Im a fan opf that contract too- lol!). My thinking might be to swap in Sekera. I know his names a little "muddy" these days but his contract fits the bill at 1.5 and honestly there one year upside is probably pretty similar in the 20-30 range.

    Ryan Strome? Why Bother?

    Ok so ill get the Maroon part out of the way first. I like him. His contract is absolutely fantastic, you can bet on a pretty safe 30 points with even 40 pouint upside on a team that loaded with talent, and he'll bring the pain, er I mean the pims- lol! That being said I am not adverse to trading him. I have Hartman on my farm who brings lots of the same categories with a bit more offensive upside and on top of that I have a lot of "pimmy" scoring through my lineup in E Kane, Hornqvist, Coleman, and kreider. He'll be a useful asset and that contract has added value in our league as players at two million or less can clear waivers without danger when you drop them. It comes down to me being optimistic with Toffoli

    Ive tried so many times to post this so this is very condensed. Strome added 5 minutes to his TTOI in the second half. Hes not especially reliant on PP time which is very good news being on NYR BUT he never managed to improve his poor sog totals even with the other gains. Im weak at C and he seems like a "sneaky" decent add.


    So would you:

    Do the deal as is with Heed?

    Do the deal i countered with- Sekera replacing Heed?

    Do the deal only if you could find a reasonable way to add Steel?

    Walk away from the whole thing and keep Ghost?
    14 team cap league (30 mil above nhl)
    Daily Changes- 3c 3rw 3lw 3 forward flex 5d 2g 8bn ir+
    Weekly hth - g a p ppp shp pim sog +/- gwg - w sv% so gaa saves
    27 man farm team - no cap - junior team can hold prospects to up till 3 years
    C Ziba Kadri Hino
    Rw Tarasenko Gallagher Hornqvist
    Lw Hall Forsberg Evander
    Flex Forward- Perron, Kreider T Johnson
    D Karlsson Krug Hamilton Ghost Gustaafson
    G Andersen Fleury
    BN Coleman Terry Kase Lehkonen Maroon Hronek Mrazek Merzlikins
    Farm Kovalchuk Hartman Jarnkrok Sekera Mikheyev Nygard Sturm Palve Vanek
    Rooks Olofsson HoSang Marody Persson
    Cap 111.5

  2. #2
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    Dobber Sports Giant

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    a little more detail would help...

  3. #3
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    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Sorry, so you're getting Ghost? That's what I understood. But if so, it means we need the league details because in your Sig you already have him.
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
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    Fighting_Emu's Avatar
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    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    K sorry guys- between a wonky connection, timing out on a public computer, and having to edit word count (and not knowing it deletes everything you added when you try and submit a post thats too long- lol!) it has been difficult trying to finish that. I know it doesnt look like it but that last few paragraphs took almost two hours to finish :P

    Hopefully someon e responds as thats two hours of my life ill never get back- lmao!!!
    14 team cap league (30 mil above nhl)
    Daily Changes- 3c 3rw 3lw 3 forward flex 5d 2g 8bn ir+
    Weekly hth - g a p ppp shp pim sog +/- gwg - w sv% so gaa saves
    27 man farm team - no cap - junior team can hold prospects to up till 3 years
    C Ziba Kadri Hino
    Rw Tarasenko Gallagher Hornqvist
    Lw Hall Forsberg Evander
    Flex Forward- Perron, Kreider T Johnson
    D Karlsson Krug Hamilton Ghost Gustaafson
    G Andersen Fleury
    BN Coleman Terry Kase Lehkonen Maroon Hronek Mrazek Merzlikins
    Farm Kovalchuk Hartman Jarnkrok Sekera Mikheyev Nygard Sturm Palve Vanek
    Rooks Olofsson HoSang Marody Persson
    Cap 111.5

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    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    I think I would walk away from the whole thing because Ghost is the best player in the deal, has the best contract, and you're taking on salary that you don't need/want.
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
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  6. #6
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    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I think I would walk away from the whole thing because Ghost is the best player in the deal, has the best contract, and you're taking on salary that you don't need/want.
    I think youre right- i swerved hard. I sent a counter but the problem is i had sent a message back something to the effect of "yea I might do something like this with sekera instead but I need time to do my salary cap and shop Ghost"- so coming back with a pretty enormous counter might be a bit problematic. On top of that i kind of doubt hell go for it. he just acquired steel although the price was a little light (Colin white and tierney).

    Ghost Perron Hartman Sekera
    For
    Ekholm Toffoli Steel

    I like Perron but clearing out his salary makes room for Toffoli. its definitely a gamble. i think perrons got a pretty safe floor of 55ish with his situation right now and hes got a two year average of around 70 point pace which is nothing to sniffle at. it gets worse in that hes signed there for four more years. With peripherals and perrons penchant for injury- Toffoli probably only needs about 55 to make it close but unfortunately thats far from a lock at this point. If we give an edge in value here, and an edge in value to Ghost it might be enough to get steel in the conversation. i included sekera as "wheel grease" because he had asked for two dmen in his original offer.

    i dont know. i kind of dont think he'll accept and on top of that- typing this out loud Im not sure I want him to accept- lol! Doh- and I forgot to ask about Johnsson!! Lol i suck at this
    14 team cap league (30 mil above nhl)
    Daily Changes- 3c 3rw 3lw 3 forward flex 5d 2g 8bn ir+
    Weekly hth - g a p ppp shp pim sog +/- gwg - w sv% so gaa saves
    27 man farm team - no cap - junior team can hold prospects to up till 3 years
    C Ziba Kadri Hino
    Rw Tarasenko Gallagher Hornqvist
    Lw Hall Forsberg Evander
    Flex Forward- Perron, Kreider T Johnson
    D Karlsson Krug Hamilton Ghost Gustaafson
    G Andersen Fleury
    BN Coleman Terry Kase Lehkonen Maroon Hronek Mrazek Merzlikins
    Farm Kovalchuk Hartman Jarnkrok Sekera Mikheyev Nygard Sturm Palve Vanek
    Rooks Olofsson HoSang Marody Persson
    Cap 111.5

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I think I would walk away from the whole thing because Ghost is the best player in the deal, has the best contract, and you're taking on salary that you don't need/want.

    Could ask to include Hornqvist and Johnsson? Does that make sense??
    14 team cap league (30 mil above nhl)
    Daily Changes- 3c 3rw 3lw 3 forward flex 5d 2g 8bn ir+
    Weekly hth - g a p ppp shp pim sog +/- gwg - w sv% so gaa saves
    27 man farm team - no cap - junior team can hold prospects to up till 3 years
    C Ziba Kadri Hino
    Rw Tarasenko Gallagher Hornqvist
    Lw Hall Forsberg Evander
    Flex Forward- Perron, Kreider T Johnson
    D Karlsson Krug Hamilton Ghost Gustaafson
    G Andersen Fleury
    BN Coleman Terry Kase Lehkonen Maroon Hronek Mrazek Merzlikins
    Farm Kovalchuk Hartman Jarnkrok Sekera Mikheyev Nygard Sturm Palve Vanek
    Rooks Olofsson HoSang Marody Persson
    Cap 111.5

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    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting_Emu View Post
    Could ask to include Hornqvist and Johnsson? Does that make sense??
    It would for you if it was a straight up deal, but buying high on the Johnsson hype while selling low on Horny is not going to get a deal pushed through that will warrant you parting with Ghost.
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
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  9. #9
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    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    It would for you if it was a straight up deal, but buying high on the Johnsson hype while selling low on Horny is not going to get a deal pushed through that will warrant you parting with Ghost.
    I hear ya! Basically I meant if he was on board with the amended deal would it be advisable to tack on Johannson for hornqvist?

    As a whole would it improve my team to trade the following:

    Ghost Perron Hartman Hornqvist Sekera
    For
    Ekholm Toffoli Steel Johnsson

  10. #10
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    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    Still not a fan of it, and it's getting convoluted.
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  11. #11
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    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    K fair ebough

  12. #12
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    Dobber Sports All-Star

    Default Re: Moving the ghost of a bear...

    I just traded Gostisbehere in a dynasty, am a Flyers fan, understand cap leagues, and wouldn't consider doing any of those deals you were thinking about.

    My deal in a non-cap was Gostisbehere & Werenski for Ekblad & Yandle. I badly needed Florida D, he wanted Gostisbehere for his Flyers setup. Points only.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, M Reilly, Carlson, Klingberg, Letang
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Benn, Seguin, Pavelski
    F4: Stamkos, Tavares, MacKinnon


    Bench:
    Injured: Point
    G: Holtby
    D: Gardiner, Gustafsson, Makar, Morrissey
    F: Bailey, Bertuzzi, Cirelli, Johnsson, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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