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Thread: Will Chabot ever be elite?

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    Paddy's Avatar
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    Default Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Basically I know he's good, but he is on a tire fire of a team.

    so maybe the follow up question is, when will Ottawa get it together.

    Chabot's +/- scares the crap out of me.
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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    I am in the same boat with Chabot but we don't have +/- Scoring. I am debating between keeping him or Seth Jones but I like Chabot in a contract year with the possibility of him being traded to a better team.

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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    I'd say there were periods last season when Chabot was elite. So, to answer your question, yes he will be.

    Who knows when Ottawa won't be trash though. Lots of prospects, should have a high pick this year. Does Melnyk pay Chabot next year? Risky proposition but you'd have to hope so. Have to start to build upward at some point.

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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Ottawa isn't trading Chabot any time soon so if that's what you are waiting for, expect to be disappointed.

    Chabot is going to be a very good Dman for years. "Elite" is a matter of opinion depending on how you consider the definition of that word (which I hate). Also, +/- isn't something he can control much of so I don't worry about that one category much. If you can own him, enjoy the ride. As I say, he will be a very good Dman for years.
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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    Ottawa isn't trading Chabot any time soon so if that's what you are waiting for, expect to be disappointed.

    Chabot is going to be a very good Dman for years. "Elite" is a matter of opinion depending on how you consider the definition of that word (which I hate). Also, +/- isn't something he can control much of so I don't worry about that one category much. If you can own him, enjoy the ride. As I say, he will be a very good Dman for years.

    Would you rather have Chabot or Seth Jones in a keeper league with no +/- scoring?

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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Quote Originally Posted by YungCardinals View Post
    Would you rather have Chabot or Seth Jones in a keeper league with no +/- scoring?
    instead of telling us what category you not scoring, why dont you list all your scoring cats? maybe easier read that way...
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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Quote Originally Posted by YungCardinals View Post
    Would you rather have Chabot or Seth Jones in a keeper league with no +/- scoring?
    Too close to call for me. Some years I can see Chabot out producing Jones, and other years I can see Jones out producing Chabot. Both are excellent Dmen so it's too hard to say which one is the better of the two.
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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    So there's a couple of points that go towards D-men producing in fantasy.

    PP production doesn't really sway yr to yr if they are the PP1D. It's the 5on5 production that jumps a D-man into that eliteness.

    Erik Karlsson, the top of the Elite Fantasy D-man for yrs. This was his PP vs 5on5 production from 2016-19

    GP - 283
    PPP - 91pts (26/82gp)
    ESP - 166pts (48/82gp)
    PPP% - 35% of his points were PPP.
    PPP% in his last season - 21%

    John Carlson has been a beast as a Fantasy D-man too:

    John Carlson (2016-19)
    GP - 290
    PPP - 95 (26.9/82gp)
    ESP - 117 (33.1/82gp)
    PPP% - 44% of his points were PPP
    PPP% in his last season - 47%

    Then Brent Burns:

    Brent Burns (2016-19)
    GP - 328
    PPP - 110 (27.5/82gp)
    ESP - 182 (45.5/82GP)
    PPP% - 37.7% of his points were PPP
    PP% in his last season - 35.9%


    A SOLID number of PPP is high 20's (26+). The top guys do it often and it's pretty interesting how consistent that number is. Now, the difference from John Carlson (FINALLY ranked high and considered great) and a Brent Burns (consistently ranked high but that's due to goals) and Karlsson (82pts, come on) is the Even Strength Stuff. So what did Chabot do last yr?

    Chabot
    GP - 70
    PPP - 17 (19.9/82GP)
    ESP - 38 (44.5/82GP)
    PPP% - 30.9%

    His PPP% is pretty standard. IF he can add a few points to that PP, and get it to 22pts. He shoulllddd be able to get roughly get 22ppp, 49ESP for a total of 71pts.
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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Quote Originally Posted by Paddy View Post
    Basically I know he's good, but he is on a tire fire of a team.

    so maybe the follow up question is, when will Ottawa get it together.

    Chabot's +/- scares the crap out of me.


    There's no way of knowing for sure when a team will "get it together".
    I would estimate that the average time for turning a bottom-dweller into a playoff-team is 4 years.
    But that doesn't mean 4 years... it means "could be TWO years... could be SIX years". [Important note!]

    Now, there's a certain amount of luck involved there as well.
    History, though - is a valuable source here:
    Here's a list of last place teams and you can see how long it took them:

    2017-18 Buffalo 62pts.
    2016-17 Colorado 48pts.
    2015-16 Toronto 69pts.
    2014-15 Buffalo 54pts.
    2013-14 Buffalo 52pts.
    2012-13 Florida 36pts (48gp season)
    2011-12 Columbus 65pts
    2010-11 Edmonton 62pts

    COL and TOR basically turned their teams around in just TWO years.
    Colorado had a good bit of luck in that their draft picks have really panned out well... and they had MacKinnon still finding his game in 2016-17.
    Toronto had the good bit of luck of Matthews... the did a smart move to bottom out for a shot at that, moving Kessel to rebuild, and landed a top tier coach. And they landed Tavares.

    BUF and EDM haven't been able to bring in supporting players around their top-end draft superstars.
    They haven't added any quality big name UFAs. They haven't made any great trades.

    It's very hit & miss... but a rebuild could be TWO years... it could be FIVE+ plus years.

    COL (Denver) & TOR also had budget funding from their owner.
    So they could pay for a great coach.
    TOR could pay Freddie Andersen and Tavares.
    COL got really fortunate in moving Duchene for an INCREDIBLE return.


    Ottawa has to have something break right for them... and that thing has to be the #1 pick and Lafreniere... and that's only a 30%(ish) chance.
    I think they'll be more of a smaller market struggle, like EDM and BUF.

    I really think it's about 50% on four years...
    and 50% on maybe-not-at-all (EDM/BUF)...

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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    There's no way of knowing for sure when a team will "get it together".
    I would estimate that the average time for turning a bottom-dweller into a playoff-team is 4 years.
    But that doesn't mean 4 years... it means "could be TWO years... could be SIX years". [Important note!]

    Now, there's a certain amount of luck involved there as well.
    History, though - is a valuable source here:
    Here's a list of last place teams and you can see how long it took them:

    2017-18 Buffalo 62pts.
    2016-17 Colorado 48pts.
    2015-16 Toronto 69pts.
    2014-15 Buffalo 54pts.
    2013-14 Buffalo 52pts.
    2012-13 Florida 36pts (48gp season)
    2011-12 Columbus 65pts
    2010-11 Edmonton 62pts

    COL and TOR basically turned their teams around in just TWO years.
    Colorado had a good bit of luck in that their draft picks have really panned out well... and they had MacKinnon still finding his game in 2016-17.
    Toronto had the good bit of luck of Matthews... the did a smart move to bottom out for a shot at that, moving Kessel to rebuild, and landed a top tier coach. And they landed Tavares.

    BUF and EDM haven't been able to bring in supporting players around their top-end draft superstars.
    They haven't added any quality big name UFAs. They haven't made any great trades.

    It's very hit & miss... but a rebuild could be TWO years... it could be FIVE+ plus years.

    COL (Denver) & TOR also had budget funding from their owner.
    So they could pay for a great coach.
    TOR could pay Freddie Andersen and Tavares.
    COL got really fortunate in moving Duchene for an INCREDIBLE return.


    Ottawa has to have something break right for them... and that thing has to be the #1 pick and Lafreniere... and that's only a 30%(ish) chance.
    I think they'll be more of a smaller market struggle, like EDM and BUF.

    I really think it's about 50% on four years...
    and 50% on maybe-not-at-all (EDM/BUF)...

    will the plus minus be great...gosh, probably not. but, no matter how bad we suspect Ott will be this year....someone has to score! He's shown progression every season. He'll be the anchor on the PP...hopefully not in a bad way!

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    Default Re: Will Chabot ever be elite?

    How do you all see Brannstrom factoring in here?
    Would the Sens play with 2 Ds on the PP1? For now at least I’d think that is possible. White, Tkachuk, Chabot leaves room for 2 more. Personally I’d think Brannstrom will turn into a better option than their other forwards in the near future. Unless I am forgetting someone.

    Also, many seem to think. Chabot will be a better offensive player than Brannstrom, thus assuring his PP1 position if they don’t run with 2 Ds. I am not as sure. Chabot is terrific. But Brans seems like he could be just as good if not better. Others have disagreed.

    Either way, Chabot is one of the young Ds worth betting on towards the future. He certainly has what it takes.
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