Strategize For Pts Only Mini League? (rep)

[DusterDave]

So I ran a $$$ hockey pool with friends for about 10 years where we would have a live draft at a bar and it was the greatest thing ever. Sadly, that league is no more as it is extremely hard to round up enough guys with our busy lives. So rather than let it die completely I decided to keep it going by hanging onto a thread - a 4 team mini league where the winner receives a case of beer from each of the other 3 losers. So now I am wondering if it is necessary to implement any kind of strategy or just draft BPA each round. League details as follows....

4 Teams
2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G/4BN/2IR+
Goals - 2 pts.
Assists - 1 pt.
PPP - 1 pt.
Win - 3 pts.
Shut-Out - 2 pts.
25 moves max for the season

So as far as strategies go I was thinking I could either draft BPA each round or try to load up on top tier guys in the weaker positions.
For goaltending I thought I should maybe aim for Vasilevskiy in Round 2 or 3 and then wait until my last pick of the draft to get my 2nd goalie (or last two picks for my 2nd/3rd goalie). If I do draft a 3rd goalie for my bench I plan on grabbing Gibson just for Anaheim's off night schedule.
On defense would it be smart to try and get both of Burns and Karlsson on D at the expensive of passing on forwards early on... and just how early should I do this?
Centre of course are always super deep so unless I am getting McDavid I figured stocking my wings first would be a better bet since the league is so shallow.
Also, McDavid or Kucherov if I have the choice?

I know there isn't much to work with but if you have any creative ideas I would love to know what you think.
Draft is tomorrow night (Monday) and draft order won't be randomized until just before the draft so I currently don't know what position I will be in.

Thanks as always - will rep.

[butch]

man , I kinda miss those days of drafting at the ol' pub in the late 80's , early 90's and using the toronto star tuesdays nhl stat pack to update the standings .

[DusterDave]

Should mention I am going up against casual poolies so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they reached a bit for the superstars from their favourite teams (Leafs, Bruins & Sabres).

[DusterDave]

man , I kinda miss those days of drafting at the ol' pub in the late 80's , early 90's and using the toronto star tuesdays nhl stat pack to update the standings .

It was honestly my favourite day on the year, I’m going to miss it.

[Eskimo Brother]

Let's do some math.
For numbers sake, and just to make sure you're in a good spot, we'll assume you have 5 bench instead (safety factor here), and go with a divide of 3F, 1D, 1G on each bench. That means a total of 9F, 5D, 3G per team, or 12LW, 12C, 12RW, 20D, and 12G owned.
The steepest drop off actually really isn't in net, as goalie #1-3 aren't too different from goalies 9-11. Some teams also won't draft more than two goalies, and the Rinne owner will want Saros, etc.

D#1-3 vs D#16-18 is a fair drop off, so I would definitely grab a couple before other people do. That being said, in most drafts, past Burns/Karlsson/Hedman, Defence aren't going off the board very fast. And with only 16x4=64 players owned, I think grabbing Burns in round 2, and Karlsson in round 3 or 4 would be a great way to go.

Out of 36 forwards owned, you can definitely keep on top of things and not lose much ground there. Between the guys you'll pick in the 10 range, and the guys left available around 30ish (like Point, Michael, Malkin currently in yahoo leagues) there's so many options.
So first round grab one of the top 5 Fs, pick 6-8 if you fall in that range I would go Burns, and then BPA from there, definitely focusing on wings, and making sure you're ahead of the curve on D. Goalies make sure you're in on the workhorses for playoff teams, and guys like Gubauer/Jones later will do you just as well as a guy like Holtby/Murray earlier.

Also with limited moves, let someone else grab guys like Malkin or Letang, unless they slip to real bargain territory.

[Axeman33]

The league in my signature is one of two leagues that I still go to a pub and draft with friends. The one in my signature is going into it's 23rd year. I am in the money consistently. Sorry to hear your league has faded like it has.

As far as your strategy goes, I am always about picking the BPA, especially if it's not a keeper league. I don't know where you are drafting from, position wise, but I would have no issues grabbing Vasilevskiy in the 2nd round and to be honest, I'd see if someone like Bobrovsky is still there in the 3rd and get them both, if possible.

Best of luck getting that beer!

[Pengwin7]

4 teams, only strategy for me is that you could PUNT goalies until your final two draft picks.

Think about this... if the other three teams each draft TWO goalies... that's only SIX goalies taken.
If the other three teams each draft THREE goalies... that's, still only NINE goalies taken.

So... the strategy in a (small) *4 team* league... is just to COMPLETELY LAY OFF GOALIES.
Draft exactly the best two goalies left at the end of the draft.

Skater heavy until last two rounds.
Easy peezy, enjoy your beer.

Save your transactions for rising team goalies - it happens every year...
and there's going to be only 12/31 goalies owned MAX at any given time in this league (4 teams x 3 each).

Piece.of.cake.

[PenguinHunter]

Not sure I have much to add here... I would suggest that if you combine EB and P7 response you have the perfect response.

As EB discussed... the cost above replacement would suggest that D is the position to target a bit early. And I definitely agree with filling out wingers before C.

What I would do is rank each of the positions and draw a line after the 12C, 12LW, 12 RW and 20D just to confirm which position to be most patient with.

As for your question Kucherov or McDavid... I think I would go Kucherov just for the RW factor.

And goalies... yup exactly as P7 said. Wait on goalies. if you wait on goalies you might not have the best goalies at the start of the year... but you will have the best ability to pick up this season's Binnington.

Someone who drafts Vasileskiy in the early rounds is not going to drop him to pick a goalie on a team that outperforms expectations this year (which seems to happen every year). Whereas if you pick some later goalies you will be able to afford a shorter leash and take a risk on picking up this years surprise.

[j0hn_d0e]

So I ran a $$$ hockey pool with friends for about 10 years where we would have a live draft at a bar and it was the greatest thing ever. Sadly, that league is no more as it is extremely hard to round up enough guys with our busy lives. So rather than let it die completely I decided to keep it going by hanging onto a thread - a 4 team mini league where the winner receives a case of beer from each of the other 3 losers. So now I am wondering if it is necessary to implement any kind of strategy or just draft BPA each round. League details as follows....

4 Teams
2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G/4BN/2IR+
Goals - 2 pts.
Assists - 1 pt.
PPP - 1 pt.
Win - 3 pts.
Shut-Out - 2 pts.
25 moves max for the season

So as far as strategies go I was thinking I could either draft BPA each round or try to load up on top tier guys in the weaker positions.
For goaltending I thought I should maybe aim for Vasilevskiy in Round 2 or 3 and then wait until my last pick of the draft to get my 2nd goalie (or last two picks for my 2nd/3rd goalie). If I do draft a 3rd goalie for my bench I plan on grabbing Gibson just for Anaheim's off night schedule.
On defense would it be smart to try and get both of Burns and Karlsson on D at the expensive of passing on forwards early on... and just how early should I do this?
Centre of course are always super deep so unless I am getting McDavid I figured stocking my wings first would be a better bet since the league is so shallow.
Also, McDavid or Kucherov if I have the choice?

I know there isn't much to work with but if you have any creative ideas I would love to know what you think.
Draft is tomorrow night (Monday) and draft order won't be randomized until just before the draft so I currently don't know what position I will be in.

Thanks as always - will rep.

With that small of a roster for me its BPA probably the best route to go. I like the idea of targeting Vasilevsky in round 2 or 3 but what if hes not there anymore? As we know its always a gamble to go early with a goalie if his name is not Vasilevsky And I love the idea of getting Gibson with one of your late picks because Anaheim once again have the most off-night games in the league. He could be a steal. To be honest I wouldnt try to target both Burns and Karlsson. The one reason is beacuse they are on a same team, the other is that I have some concernt about Karlsson's health. But I would absolutely try to get at least one elite D-men early in the draft.
Also, give me Kucherov over McDavid! And filling in your wings positions first is the better strategy in my opinion.

[DusterDave]

Excellent, thanks fellas. I’ve considered a few different approaches but think I have decided to go this route....

Round 1 - If I have the first pick I’m taking Kucherov because of position. Second pick I’d have to take McDavid. Third is MacKinnon and fourth would be Ovie/Kane on the turn.
Round 2 - Best available winger
Round 3 - Burns
Round 4 - Karlsson
Round 5 - Best available winger or D
Round 6 - Best available winger or D
Round 7 - Begin to fill in centres depending on how many centres the other 3 teams have taken.
Round 8-end of draft - I’ll go BPA
Final few rounds - goaltending

Thanks for everyone’s help. Will rep will I can and am still looking for more opinions since I have until 8:30 this evening.

I’ll share my draft results later this evening since this is somewhat a unique league.

[PenguinHunter]

Excellent, thanks fellas. I’ve considered a few different approaches but think I have decided to go this route....

Round 1 - If I have the first pick I’m taking Kucherov because of position. Second pick I’d have to take McDavid. Third is MacKinnon and fourth would be Ovie/Kane on the turn.
Round 2 - Best available winger
Round 3 - Burns
Round 4 - Karlsson
Round 5 - Best available winger or D
Round 6 - Best available winger or D
Round 7 - Begin to fill in centres depending on how many centres the other 3 teams have taken.
Round 8-end of draft - I’ll go BPA
Final few rounds - goaltending

Thanks for everyone’s help. Will rep will I can and am still looking for more opinions since I have until 8:30 this evening.

I’ll share my draft results later this evening since this is somewhat a unique league.

Points only league.... I would be dropping Ovy down quite a bit.

If I am on the turn I would be strongly considering these guys:

Draisaitl
Kane
Gaudreau
Barkov

[DusterDave]

Draisaitl is a very early target of mine because of dual eligibility. I also want Giroux’s tri-eligibility but not sure how late I can take him. Anyone think he will go undrafted?

[Pengwin7]

I think optimal line-up here is as follows:
10F (obv, with 3-4 dual eligible players), forwards simply score more points... so long as you can get them in without "Same Night" forced-benchings**.
4D (the bare min, no point having more)
2G (the bare min, no point having more)


For me, the right way to plan for this is as follows:
Go to a stat site, I use ESPN.com,

1. Sort by F, last year's stats... how many points was F#40? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 10F]
2. Sort by D, last year's stats... how many points was D#16? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 4D]
3. Sort by G, last year's stats... how many points was G#8? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 2G. There will GUARANTEE be conflicts with most 3G groups, benched points is bad-planning, unless you can land Gibson/ANA - and ANA ain't gonna be too good this year, I think... so not sure it's even worth it... as he should be a "late" draft pick anyways in a WIN-centric scoring system.]

Those are your "waiver/replacement level values".
When you draft, know what you expect a guy to score... and compare to that replacement level value.

Also - don't forget:
i) With goalies, there'll be a lot of schedule to micro-manage (if you want)... teams with a nice upcoming schedule means good WIN-RATE for a goalie, pluck one off waivers every 2-3 weeks for a "run".
ii) With forwards, if you roster 10F with 6spots... you need to be all on top of "Same Night" tool to see how many "benchings" might happen.

It is possibly that 9F(+3F) and either 5D(+1D) or 3G(+1G) might be better.
Yahoo does have a TON of multi-eligibility again this year.
A guy like Giroux as C/LW/RW isn't going to be THAT much more helpful than a a regular dual-guy (C/LW or C/RW), just FYI.
But... you do want to have a max of 2C(only), 2LW(only), 2RW(only) for forwards. The other 3-4 Fs, should have positional flexibility... that's a definite BPA tie-breaker when deciding, the dual-elig.

[LawMan]

Agree with everything that was said positionally and by EB and P7. No one has really addressed the scoring in-depth.

With G=2 and A=1 PPP=1 You're looking for guys who score goals, ideally wingers. Kucherov, Ovy and Marchand should be high targets, even Drai with dual eligibilty. McDavid is a stud but with MacKinnon right on his tail I would pass on McDavid first round for a stud winger or Dman.

[DusterDave]

I think optimal line-up here is as follows:
10F (obv, with 3-4 dual eligible players), forwards simply score more points... so long as you can get them in without "Same Night" forced-benchings**.
4D (the bare min, no point having more)
2G (the bare min, no point having more)


For me, the right way to plan for this is as follows:
Go to a stat site, I use ESPN.com,

1. Sort by F, last year's stats... how many points was F#40? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 10F]
2. Sort by D, last year's stats... how many points was D#16? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 4D]
3. Sort by G, last year's stats... how many points was G#8? [That's the magic number if all 4 teams draft 2G. There will GUARANTEE be conflicts with most 3G groups, benched points is bad-planning, unless you can land Gibson/ANA - and ANA ain't gonna be too good this year, I think... so not sure it's even worth it... as he should be a "late" draft pick anyways in a WIN-centric scoring system.]

Those are your "waiver/replacement level values".
When you draft, know what you expect a guy to score... and compare to that replacement level value.

Also - don't forget:
i) With goalies, there'll be a lot of schedule to micro-manage (if you want)... teams with a nice upcoming schedule means good WIN-RATE for a goalie, pluck one off waivers every 2-3 weeks for a "run".
ii) With forwards, if you roster 10F with 6spots... you need to be all on top of "Same Night" tool to see how many "benchings" might happen.

It is possibly that 9F(+3F) and either 5D(+1D) or 3G(+1G) might be better.
Yahoo does have a TON of multi-eligibility again this year.
A guy like Giroux as C/LW/RW isn't going to be THAT much more helpful than a a regular dual-guy (C/LW or C/RW), just FYI.
But... you do want to have a max of 2C(only), 2LW(only), 2RW(only) for forwards. The other 3-4 Fs, should have positional flexibility... that's a definite BPA tie-breaker when deciding, the dual-elig.

I think using all 4 bench spots on forwards would leave a lot of points on the bench and would create a lot of hard decisions on the busy nights. I’d rather avoid kicking myself in the ass for making the wrong decision. I was going to roll with either 3 bench F and 1 D or 2 F, 1 D and 1 G but I think you convinced me to only use 2 goalies.

I also think I’m going to push back targeting Burns and Karlsson from Rounds 3 & 4 to 4 & 5. Is Rakell is good bench target in a 4 team league? Dual wing eligible and plays on off nights.