Keeper Choices -- Must Keep 5. Thoughts?

[BooBird]

I am in a keeper league where I have to keep 5 skaters or 4 skaters plus 1 goalie. I am pretty set on my 4 keepers, but the 5th I can go several ways. One key wrinkle...goalies are over-valued in this league. If I don't pick one in say, the first round or two of the redraft, All that's left are the Cory Schneiders and Corey Crawford types.

12 team Head to Head Points Leage

Key Skater stats are: G = 3 points, Assists = 2 points, PIM = 1 point per 2 PIM. 1 Point bonus for SHPs, no bonus for PPPs, .5 for +/-
Goalie Stats: Win = 3 Points, Loss = -1 Point, Shutout = 5 Points, Saves = 0.2 Points per.

Keepers: Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Jon Huberdeau, Nikita Kucherov.

On the fence:

Filip Forsberg - Maybe he'll make the jump from very good to elite this season (or at least I keep telling myself year in year out)
Morgan Rielly - 20 point stud defensemen don't grow on trees.
Sean Monahan - 82 points in 78 games is solid, but his that his peak?
Mathew Barzal - I could probably just draft him again...doubt anyone in this league is high on him.

Jordan Binnington - Was lights out, but is he for real? Could be a genius move or blow up in my face.
Phillip Grubauer - I think if im keeping a goalie, it's Winnington Binnington

[Eskimo Brother]

I think I would roll with Binnington, but that's a tough cut on both Reilly and Forsberg. Can't trade either one?

I question I have though, is what the roster setup looks like (i.e. how many defenceman slots relative to F).

[BooBird]

Starting lineup is 3C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1 Utility (Any Skater), 2 G

[Eskimo Brother]

Starting lineup is 3C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 1 Utility (Any Skater), 2 G

Then I would say keep Binnington and give yourself the flexibility of drafting BPA in the first few rounds.

[BooBird]

I agree...last year, I had the 11th pick and Jake Allen was basically the last goalie left that I had ranked in my "Acceptable Starter" tier. Pretty brutal.

[DusterDave]

I agree...last year, I had the 11th pick and Jake Allen was basically the last goalie left that I had ranked in my "Acceptable Starter" tier. Pretty brutal.

I was going to suggest keeping Forsberg or Rielly over a goalie but after seeing this post you almost have to keep a goalie here.

[BooBird]

Playing devil's advocate...is there any reason to keep Grubauer over Binnington? Colorado made many improvements over the offseason, while St. Louis is pretty much returning the same team. Also, I feel like much of Binnington's success comes from how the Blues limit the opposing shots against, so if for whatever reason that plan goes south, so will Binnington's stats. That said, Binnington does appear to be ranked very highly on all of MoneyPucks advanced goalie metrics, so maybe he's pretty damn good on his own too.

Also, Binnington still has Jake Allen looking over his shoulder. $4.5M or whatever Allen is making is alot for somebody to spend the season riding the bench. Grubuaer has nobody even remotely established looking over his shoulder (i did say the same thing about Allen last year though, yet here we are).

Just some more food for thought.