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Thread: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

  1. #1
    lusshouse's Avatar
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    Default Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    Questions at the bottom, feel free to read my rant before, or not.


    Team in signature.
    Keep as many as you want.
    Roster from 24 to 30, 10% above real NHL cap.
    Start 2G, 6D, 3C, 3LW and 3RW each week, but it's not H2H.

    I will have approximately 20M to draft :
    - A starting goalie better than Corey Crawford (will drop)
    - A starting defenseman that will be cheaper than Sami Vatanen (will drop) while getting approximately as many points
    - A starting winger that will get me as many points as possible


    I have the fifth overall pick, and based on my experience in this league, the first round is usually where all the ELC guys are picked, the second round pick is usually where defenseman and goalies with value contracts are picked, and third round and beyond is where people have a better idea of their cap space left and attempt to draft the high-priced guys that have been dropped this year or past years... or guys pick long-shots, cheap projects for future years.



    I expect the following three guys to be drafted 1, 2 and 3 :
    Jack Hughes, Kappo Kakko and Cale Makar. If one of these three make it to my pick, I slam dunk it in.


    But here's where things get more interesting.


    I need help to figure out who to pick 5th.


    Logical choice would be to go for one of the following D :
    Quinn Hughes
    Dante Fabbro
    Adam Fox
    Bowen Byram

    I think Hughes has the highest upside of the four for this year and next, but he has already burned one year of his ELC. Fabbro also has only 2 years left, and I think his impact will be smaller than Hughes, but he's on this list because I *think* QHughes will be picked fourth. Fox is more of an unknown with DeAngelo likely ahead of him, but he's got 3 years on his ELC, which can be huge in 2021-2022. Byram is also a wildcard to me, I think he'll slide this year, and will have him on my roster for 4 seasons at his ELC, but won't give me much for two years, and then, might be stuck behind Makar and Girard -- thus in a situation similar than Fabbro.

    None of these guys will make it to my 2nd round pick, which would force me to fallback to Cernak for short-term investment (only 1y on ELC) or Sandin or Joseph (and force both Grzcelyk and Brannstrom on my every week roster instead)... unless Pettersson signs super cheap in Pittsburgh.


    I could be aggressive a draft a goalie. No goalie has ever been drafted ahead of the 10th overall pick for as long as I can remember (league is 15 years strong), but that was last year, and it feels like people want to stash as many prospects as possible on their roster.

    Jordan Binnington (4.55 and 4.25) and David Rittich (2.75 for two years) are both goalies I think could be number ones and start 50-55 games, but then again, both don't have the track record to justify passing on elite D talent. Knowing the needs of the teams picking before me in the second round, I expect both to be gone at the beginning of the 2nd round, unless one prefers Koskinen in EDM for his longer term contract.

    There's also Elvis Merzlikins (one year) and Mackenzie Blackwood (one year) who could steal the #1 spot, but both aren't locks either, and would be Plan B solutions in the second round.

    And finally there's Shesterkin who wouldn't fill my need for short term gains, but is really appealing. Samsonov is the guy who got drafted 10th overall last year, and I expect him to be gone once I draft 19th in the second round.



    Also, up front, I need an impact player. Guys with high contracts are rarely drafted in the first round. But nobody thought Ovechkin would repeat 80+ points two years in a row in his mid-30s. Most guides, including Dobber's, still have him in the mid-80s. Though I expect him to be gone late 2nd or early 3rd, there's a chance he'll be drafted early in the second round. Ryan O'Reilly is the only other 70+ forward available to a decent contract (sorry, Jamie Benn), but I already have my 3 Cs, so I kinda need Ovechkin. The second tier of players (high 50s with potential for high 60s) includes Nylander, Gusev, Neiderreiter, Tatar, A Johnsson and Krejci.


    Finally, guys like Kravtsov, Batherson, and other forwards like Dach drafted this year and who have signed their ELC this year are available, but they're not what I need right now.



    Question #1 Which D do you prefer considering their contract situation :
    Quinn Hughes
    Dante Fabbro
    Adam Fox
    Bowen Byram


    Question #2 Which G do you prefer, considering their contract situation :
    Jordan Binnington
    David Rittich
    Mikko Koskinen
    Elvis Merzlikins
    Mackenzie Blackwood

    Question #3 Which 55-65pts player do you prefer, considering their contract situation for the next three years :
    William Nylander (9 - 6 - 6)
    Anders Lee (9 - 5.85 - 9)
    Nino Niderreiter (5.85 - 4.25 - 5.475)
    Tomas Tatar (5.5 - 4.2 - UFA)
    Andreas Johsson (5 - 3.6 - 2.5)
    Nikita Gusev (5 - 4 - UFA)


    Question #4 Knowing that I was out of the playoffs but think I can be a top-4 (and making $$) this year, which option do you prefer :
    a) Best D (Hughes/Fabbro/Fox), average G (maybe Koskinen or Merzlikins) and the worst of the forwards.
    b) Best D, likely the best forward of the list, and a terrible starter (worst of the list, or at worse, redraft Crawford)
    c) Ovechkin, middle goalie, trust Brannstrom and Grzelcyk to play 80 games and 20+ points.
    d) Ovechkin, average D, terrible starter
    e) Your first choice goalie, the best forward of the list, trust Brannstrom/Grzelcyk
    f) Your first choice goalie, An average D, the worst forward of this list.



    I wish my posts weren't complex, but I like it complex, and if it was easy, I would seek others opinion. Many thanks to all who'll take the time to read my post and share their thoughts : you are insane!

    14 Teams, PTS Only, Salary, Full Keep, Start 2G 6D 3C 3LW 3RW
    G- Markstrom, Ullmark, Gustafsson
    D- Burns, Gostisbehere, Muzzin, Sanheim, Brannstrom, Grzlecyk, Liljgren
    C- Couturier, Trocheck, Dubois, Borgstrom
    LW- Ovechkin, Marchessault, Voracek, Donato, Kahun, Sikura
    RW- Wheeler, Kakko, Konecny, Kase, Terry

    18 teams, PTS Only, Top G, Top4 D, Top10 F, Full Keep with a twist
    G- Rask Merzlikins Demko
    D- Dahlin Trouba Hanifin Matheson Chychrun Martinez
    F- Scheifele Kessel Couturier Teravainen Schenn JT Miller Stastny T Johnson C White Cirelli Hinostroza J Vesey Donato Carter Steel Patrick Sprong

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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    Good fun with this post Luss - complex to be sure but also most worthy of opinions!

    Q#1: This strikes me as a "value" question, as opposed to "who is the best" in general question. Q.Hughes or D.Fabbro for 2 - or Fox for 3 or Byram for 3/4.

    Short answer - because you're looking for "value", or max time on ELC with possibility for point production, I think you have to lean towards Byram or Fox. Home run swing is Q.Hughes since we know he'll be a stud for years, but will that "pop" happen this year? next? Lots of really talented D men don't "pop" until after their ELC's (Hedman, Rielly, etc.) - so if I'm in your shoes (and reading your question accurately), I want the guy who will give me MAX time in the show on his ELC. To me, that's Byram or Fox.

    Q#2: As our good friend Mr. Dylan said about goalies - the times they are a changin'. (I think it was about goalies anyways). The days of our 70-start studs are done, and in a 14-team 2-G-start - you NEED goalies that will play. And ideally, play for a decent team. For me that's Rittich. Even if he loses the starter's role to Talbot (which I actually expect to happen at times this season), at 2.75, on Calgary, I like it. I've got my reasons for snubbing Winnington & Kosk - but they're more personal bias than anything else. I'm actually a huge fan of Elvis (and dig Blackwood too) - so I'm an advocate for grabbing them... just not as early as I would Rittich.

    Q#3: Nylander... if you can stomach year one of the deal. Years 2/3 are likely to offer fantastic value. If you're in a crunch, then I say Gusev. He'll either be awesome or he won't - likely not somewhere in between. So either you'll get amazing value for 2 years or swing and miss totally. That's my preference for mid-tier salary guys. And if you just can't handle the Nylander salary or the risk with Gusev... then Niederreiter is my fall back.

    Q3(unique option): This completely depends on your league and how trade happy your GMs are... but if by chance it's a trade-heavy league, then my choice is A.Johnsson... with the understanding that you'll flip him for max value in November(ish). With Hyman (likely) out early, I expect AJ to get off to a hot start, and while I think he'll provide decent value on his contract, the ultimate value would be to trade him while he's smokin' and get some extra value back. If your league isn't big on trades... forget this point.

    Q#4: C) then E) in that order. If you're going for it, take OV and fill in the holes along the way. The key to picking C (for me) is that you can still get a "middle" goalie - who these days can be just as good as some starters. I also think you'll get the output from Grizz/Brann that you're seeking. That also plays into picking E, though I'd rather push my chips into the middle on a stud like OV than on a goalie.

    Q4 (Other option) - This is if you DON'T think, after further analysis, you'll be a contender this year. Then I'm picking "B". Best D, Nylander (who will be even better value next year) and solving my goalie issue either with a dart this year, or at worst, in the 1st round next year. It also opens the option of a Dach/Bath/Kravt selection this year to boost you for next... but I trust you know what direction is best for you to take this year!

    One final thought: I'm a BIG believer in zigging while others zag, so if indeed high-priced F's are never taken in the first round, I'd legitimately do my best to structure my team to be able to get that player (e.g. OV) year-in, year-out in Round 1. Considering the high number of college guys being signed, and the general uncertainty on ELC guys (damn you Martin Necas!!), I'm going proven in Round 1 and looking for an ELC "hit" later in the draft... while everyone else is looking back for "high-priced" guys. Takes some deeper digging/planning - but offers a huge advantage if you're successful with it!

    Good luck!
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  3. #3
    stevegamer's Avatar
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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    A1: Hughes. He will get PP time this year, and should be full time on PP1 next year, at worst. Edler is much better than people think, but when (not if) he gets hurt, that's Hughes' chance to really shine.

    A2: Not Koskinen, who is an expensive crapshoot. I think Blackwood is the backup in NJ, with a chance to get in a good number of games, but I don't think he's Schneider level talented. Binnington is the best goalie on the Blues, Allen is an adequate NHL backup.
    Elvis (no reason to use his last name) I think will win the #1 job in Columbus, but worst case, he's cheap and he gives you a good number of games - no entrenched starter. Rittich I think showed what he can do last year, but he needs to repeat it, and he should get a good number of games on a good team with a clear path to being the starter. Extra name I want to throw at you: Anders Nilsson. Fairly cheap, good chance at getting the starting job. A late flyer option for you.

    A3: Johnsson, but I think you can get him later than you may think. He's a fairly cheap guy who has real upside.

    A4: Ovechkin, then flexible plan. With you dropping Crawford, he may fall deep into or past the second round. I'd likely want a goalie there, given what you say about the league. However, I do like Elvis and some of the other very cheap options to give you help this year. Which brings me to an issue: I don't see goalie scoring anywhere.
    Last edited by stevegamer; September 24, 2019 at 1:20 AM.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1 backup G, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, M Reilly, Carlson, Klingberg, Letang
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Stamkos, Point, MacKinnon
    F4: Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Seguin

    Bench:
    Injured: Tavares
    G: Holtby
    D: Gardiner, Gustafsson, Makar,
    F: Bailey, Benn, Cirelli, Johnsson, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Pavelski
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    lusshouse's Avatar
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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    Hi, sorry for not providing this info.

    2pts for a W
    1 extra point for a SO.

    That's it.


    Goalies don't score as much, but they still count for a lot of salary cap.



    Thank you very much to the both of you for your replies. Please let me know how I give rep points, I have no clue about that.

    14 Teams, PTS Only, Salary, Full Keep, Start 2G 6D 3C 3LW 3RW
    G- Markstrom, Ullmark, Gustafsson
    D- Burns, Gostisbehere, Muzzin, Sanheim, Brannstrom, Grzlecyk, Liljgren
    C- Couturier, Trocheck, Dubois, Borgstrom
    LW- Ovechkin, Marchessault, Voracek, Donato, Kahun, Sikura
    RW- Wheeler, Kakko, Konecny, Kase, Terry

    18 teams, PTS Only, Top G, Top4 D, Top10 F, Full Keep with a twist
    G- Rask Merzlikins Demko
    D- Dahlin Trouba Hanifin Matheson Chychrun Martinez
    F- Scheifele Kessel Couturier Teravainen Schenn JT Miller Stastny T Johnson C White Cirelli Hinostroza J Vesey Donato Carter Steel Patrick Sprong

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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    Quote Originally Posted by lusshouse View Post
    Goalies don't score as much, but they still count for a lot of salary cap.
    Given this I definitely prefer to allocate cap to skaters, unless you have an elite goalie or a very good goalie on an elite team. Wins are a team stat more than a goalie stat.

    Rep can be given by hitting the star in the lower left of a post.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1 backup G, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, M Reilly, Carlson, Klingberg, Letang
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Stamkos, Point, MacKinnon
    F4: Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Seguin

    Bench:
    Injured: Tavares
    G: Holtby
    D: Gardiner, Gustafsson, Makar,
    F: Bailey, Benn, Cirelli, Johnsson, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Pavelski
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    Bump.
    Draft starts Wednesday morning (we do it through reply all emails).

    8th traded up to 4th because he was worried me (5th) or 6th would draft Binnington. Also 3rd traded his pick to a team who was 38M above the cap (!!!!) for Barrie and Krug. Combined. So guy who has 3rd needs cheap D.

    I know 1st will pick Makar.
    2nd I dont know.
    3rd wants a D, so I guess Hughes.
    4th wants Binnington.

    If Jack Hughes or Kakko makes it to 5th, it's a slam dunk pick for me. But if third or fourth changes their mind, I dont need Quinn H. It's more of a value pick.

    So Ovechkin?
    Has Gusev done enough in preseason to get a 60 to 70 for 5M?

    For a later goalie, has Shesterkin, Merzlikins, Blackwood, Nedjlkovic or Rittich done enough in preseason to gain more interest than the others?

    14 Teams, PTS Only, Salary, Full Keep, Start 2G 6D 3C 3LW 3RW
    G- Markstrom, Ullmark, Gustafsson
    D- Burns, Gostisbehere, Muzzin, Sanheim, Brannstrom, Grzlecyk, Liljgren
    C- Couturier, Trocheck, Dubois, Borgstrom
    LW- Ovechkin, Marchessault, Voracek, Donato, Kahun, Sikura
    RW- Wheeler, Kakko, Konecny, Kase, Terry

    18 teams, PTS Only, Top G, Top4 D, Top10 F, Full Keep with a twist
    G- Rask Merzlikins Demko
    D- Dahlin Trouba Hanifin Matheson Chychrun Martinez
    F- Scheifele Kessel Couturier Teravainen Schenn JT Miller Stastny T Johnson C White Cirelli Hinostroza J Vesey Donato Carter Steel Patrick Sprong

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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    I think you should go with Ovechkin over the non-ELC field in the first round, unless you get confirmation on an unexpected goalie winning the starting job before your draft, or Binnington is there. If Hughes/Kakko fall there, I agree that you should take them.

    Another option may be to trade your pick to a team crazy far over the cap for players.

    For a later goalie I still like Rittich or Elvis.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1 backup G, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: Bobrovsky
    Backup G: F Andersen
    D: Ekblad, Yandle, M Reilly, Carlson, Klingberg, Letang
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, Voracek
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Stamkos, Point, MacKinnon
    F4: Mikheyev, Bertuzzi, Seguin

    Bench:
    Injured: Tavares
    G: Holtby
    D: Gardiner, Gustafsson, Makar,
    F: Bailey, Benn, Cirelli, Johnsson, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Pavelski
    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Long keeper thread for 4 expert questions

    1) - Hughes
    2) - Binnington
    3) - A Johnsson
    10 Team Limited Keeper (Keep 8) Points Only
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