Need advice for odd league draft strategy

[RevelRob]

First off, I bought the FHG Season Toolkit & FHG Draft Kit last year for the inaugural season of the pool my friends and I are in together (10 teams, Fantasy points, H2H, 4 keepers). They are fantasy junkies and already had NFL, NBA & MLB pools that they play together in but wanted to start up an NHL pool last year and invited me.
Since I'm pretty fantasy stupid, I found Dobber & FHG, and bought the packs above.

Well, I finished first in the season and won the playoffs as well. Nice!
I was worried when everyone stared at me so oddly after some of my early picks; but those worries soon went away when I started winning every week.

Now for the question...

My league is C, C, LW, LW, RW, RW, D, D, D, D, Util, G, G, BN, BN, BN, IR
Players:
G: 6
A: 4
+/-: 2
PPP: 2
SOG 1
HIT: 0.5
BLK: 0.5

Goalies:
W: 5
GA: -3
SV 0.6
SHO: 5

I kept Burns (D), Vasilevskiy (G), Tavares (C), Josi (D)
I'm pretty sure I won last year because everyone put so much weight on C, LW & RW whereas I put more of my focus on drafting D & G since we have 4 D to fill.
My worry now is that after seeing all of the keepers kept, there are so few good LW, RW and C available that I'll probably miss out on any that are half decent since I draft last now (and also traded away my 2nd).
Should I just focus on getting the best D and G available if the RW, LW & C I am looking for are gone? This is how my "Top Available Overall" looks after entering keepers:
Screen Shot 2019-08-26 at 5.53.03 PM.png
6 F in the top 35! It's insane.
I'm afraid I'll be so handicapped if I don't draft smart with my first round pick as I'll have to wait a long time until my next pick. That said, I don't want to just grab any garbage F pick just because I need to fill a spot; when I can pick a top D or G early. Man... I'm stuck here.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Even if it feels weird, it helped you win last year, and FHG is telling you to do it again! It’s easier to find decent forward options late, so I think you should double down on last year’s plan. Good luck!

[GavinC]

What was your roster pre-keeper?

[stevegamer]

Given that you don't have much draft capital early, I'd really focus on nailing down a winger. While FHG has 11 G in the top 35 available, you don't need one. You have 2 D, and also don't need one of those so early to get to 3, while having only 1 of 6 (really 7 with that utility spot) starting forwards. You really don't want to get yourself so locked into a spot that you can't pick up value when it falls, and with wingers scarcer than centers, plus having Tavares, I go wing at 10 if any of those guys are there - even Giroux.

[RevelRob]

Even if it feels weird, it helped you win last year, and FHG is telling you to do it again! It’s easier to find decent forward options late, so I think you should double down on last year’s plan. Good luck!

I tend to agree with this. It felt like last year, even my low level forwards would produce at least enough for me whereas my D were always producing consistently compared to other managers. Thanks for the luck!

What was your roster pre-keeper?

Tavares, Bergeron, Larkin, Benn, Marchessault, Hoffman, Atkinson, Gallagher, Burns, Josi, Ristolainen, Parayko, Petry, Vasilevskiy, Dubnyk, Markstrom.
I had decided I would keep Tavares, Burns & Vasy for sure. My last choice was between solid D (Josi) Solid G (Dubnyk) or take a chance with Benn or Bergeron. I tried to trade away Dubnyk for a pick but my league feels like keeping a mid level forward and their pick is better than picking up a solid G (since G's stick around a couple/few rounds usually).

Given that you don't have much draft capital early, I'd really focus on nailing down a winger. While FHG has 11 G in the top 35 available, you don't need one. You have 2 D, and also don't need one of those so early to get to 3, while having only 1 of 6 (really 7 with that utility spot) starting forwards. You really don't want to get yourself so locked into a spot that you can't pick up value when it falls, and with wingers scarcer than centers, plus having Tavares, I go wing at 10 if any of those guys are there - even Giroux.

Yes, I do agree with you here. if any of those top 7 F are still available when it's my pick, I'll definitely grab one. No question. Actually, from 36-50 in my Top Available, there's Benn, Larkin & Evander Kane. So I know I'll at least get one of them. Plus, there are a bunch of managers who didn't keep a goalie; and with a few stars available, I feel like I'll be ok in the first round. Not to mention Giordano had to be dropped and he went to the high school all of the managers in my league went to .

That's probably going to be my strategy. Then, since I don't have a 2nd, I'll probably fill in gaps or steal some good D and G if it feels right.
Also, you're right about the UTIL spot. We just added that this year so that puts a lot more value on F for sure.

Thanks for helping me figure it out everyone. Sometimes just writing it down and getting some feedback is way more help than you expect... Especially when you're quite a fantasy noobie.

If anyone still has any advice, I'd be happy to hear it. Love learning this stuff as it's so new to me and makes me appreciate the game I grew up playing (and still play year round) so much more!

[stevegamer]

Not to mention Giordano had to be dropped and he went to the high school all of the managers in my league went to .

When I joined my first fantasy hockey league (the one in my sig) I was a Flyers fan, but didn't know a lot about non-stars on other teams. I did some research, and the guy who got me into the league figured he'd pick my brain. The first guy he asked me about was Craig Janney, and I gave him some generic stuff, like his personality & stuff. He laughed, and accused me of not tipping my hand. I told him that it's his fault that he asked about the only guy in the NHL who graduated with me. The sudden shock was excellent. And, yes, I drafted Janney.

I like having a guy from my HS on my team.

[RevelRob]

When I joined my first fantasy hockey league (the one in my sig) I was a Flyers fan, but didn't know a lot about non-stars on other teams. I did some research, and the guy who got me into the league figured he'd pick my brain. The first guy he asked me about was Craig Janney, and I gave him some generic stuff, like his personality & stuff. He laughed, and accused me of not tipping my hand. I told him that it's his fault that he asked about the only guy in the NHL who graduated with me. The sudden shock was excellent. And, yes, I drafted Janney.

I like having a guy from my HS on my team.

Haha Nice! Pretty cool huh?
I remember back when Gio first made the show and wasn't really expected to perform nearly as well as he has. We were all pretty happy for him then, especially since he was such a good guy in school.


On a separate note, I was searching around and couldn't find a definitive answer about Player Rankings Stat Sets.
Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 9.47.05 AM.png
Typically, during the season, I choose option 1: "Season Forecast Based on Dobberhockey Projections and Season-to-date Actuals".
Currently, since it's pre draft and seems like the best option; I've been using "Dobberyhockey Projections for the 2019-2020 season".

First off, is that the way to go?

Secondly, could someone give a brief explanation as to how each of the following stat sets work? I have generated all 3 and get very different results for each:


Stats Used: Dobberhockey Projections for the 2019-2020 season.
These are the projections for the season from the Dobberhockey 2019-2020 Fantasy Hockey Pool Guide, updated August 20, 2019. Stats projected by Dobberhockey are highlighted in red.

Stats Used: Season Forecast Based on Dobberhockey Projections and Season-to-date Actuals.
These are the forecast stats based on the 2018/2019 projections from Dobberhockey for the season reconciled with season-to-date actual stats. Stats projected by Dobberhockey are highlighted in red.

Stats Used: Your own stat projections.
No Notes



Here are the results I get for each:
Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 10.06.06 AM.png Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 10.20.15 AM.png Screen Shot 2019-08-28 at 10.27.32 AM.png

I get that Option 1 if for 2019-2020 and option 2 is for 2018-2019, but throwing Your Own Stat Projections in the mix has gotten me confused since it's different than both.

In the rankings page, it explicitly states "Below are the custom rankings generated for your fantasy hockey league."
If that's the case, where does the Your Own Stat Projections get my projections from?

Sorry, I'm just wanting to make sure I understand all of this correctly.

Thanks!

[hockeymanG23]

I believe you’ll need to target wingers with your first few selections since you have a great head start on D and G and C are quite plentiful, though you’re also starting with a great option there.

Looking at how many goalies and D are available makes me think the first couple rounds will be heavy with those selections so drafting quality wingers despite not having a 2nd shouldn't be a problem.

At the same time though, don’t be afraid to jump on a strong D or G that may unexpectedly fall to you since the pool for middle 6 forwards has so many more options to pick from later in the draft.

[GavinC]

In the rankings page, it explicitly states "Below are the custom rankings generated for your fantasy hockey league."
If that's the case, where does the Your Own Stat Projections get my projections from?
Thanks!

It's not super clear, but I believe you have to go under "Statistics & Projections", download a set of stats (mostly because the formatting will need to be the same), edit them to your liking, and then re-upload them on the same screen. If you select "Your own stat projections", it should then use those projections.

[RevelRob]

So our draft was yesterday and I think it went pretty well!

Here's what I ended up with:

J. Tavares (TOR - C),
S. Couturier (PHI - C),
D. Larkin (DET - C),
E. Kane (SJS - LW),
N. Gusev (NJD - LW),
B. Wheeler (WPG - RW),
E. Dadonov (FLA - LW/RW),
A. Svechnikov (CAR - LW/RW),
B. Burns (SJS - D),
R. Josi (NSH - D),
D. Hamilton (CAR - D),
J. Trouba (NYR - D),
J. Muzzin (TOR - D),
D. Nurse (EDM - D),
A. Vasilevskiy (TBL - G),
C. Hart (PHI - G)

Thanks for all the help!