Limited Keeper Help

[Stanley]

Hi everyone,

Entering the 2nd year of a 12-team limited keeper. The team I ended last season with and each player's respective draft round was:

C: Seguin (R2), Barzal (R5), Johansen (R9), J. Staal (R19), Backlund (R21), Nelson (R21)
LW: Ovie (R1), Forsberg (R4), JVR (R7), Fiala (R12)
RW: Arvidsson (R5), Gallagher (R13), Tuch (20), Sprong (21)
D: Carlson (R7), Ghost (R6), McDonagh (R16), Spurgeon (R21), Theodore (R21)
G: Andersen (R3), Varlamov (R12)

Our keeper rules are:
- Sign any player on your roster for 1-3 years max.
- Managers can keep up to 4 players, as long as total contract years is 10 or less.
- Managers can't re-sign their own keepers after the contract expires. Have to trade or dump back into the draft pool at the end of the season.
- Limited options to 'buy-out' a contract, so multi-year commitments are for real.
- During the draft, keepers "replace" our picks in the same round in which that player was most recently drafted. So if I keep Ovechkin, I forfeit my 1st round pick, etc.

I officially own the 5th draft position (non-snake format), but keepers will affect the actual picks I get. Based on what I know so far, my 1st rounder would likely be 2nd overall, my 2nd rounder 7-8th overall and my 3rd rounder 15th overall. 6 other GMs who pick after me have already announced their keepers and all of them have kept 1 goalie and a mix of elite players + late round value picks. 3 kept their 1st rounder, 3 didn't.

So far, top available talent in the draft includes Burns, Karlsson, Wheeler, Benn, Scheifele, Hall, Bergeron, Bishop, Hellebuyck, Malkin, and possibly some other notables once everyone's keepers are announced.

So, questions:
- Initial instinct is to keep Ovie (R1), Sequin (R2) and Anderson (R3) and possibly Carlson (R7) or Gallagher (R13). Any good arguments for a different strategy? If I don't keep Ovie, unlikely I'll be able to redraft him, even with the #2 pick.
- Knowing Ovechkin's decline is coming and will likely impact Carlson, I'm thinking of 1 or 2 yrs max for each of them. Thoughts?

Thanks everyone, and happy drafting!

[senryu]

Ovechkin will decline, but the skills that make him good are old-man skills. Setting up in a spot and using his ultra-elite shot are things he'll be able to do for more than just another year. He's not really depending on speed to get the job done. And it's not as if defense has been keeping him in the lineup. If you feel that your 1st round picks are going to be later in the round, then I'd give them 2-4 years. The key is that Washington PP, and they have the skill players to keep that part of it going.

[stevegamer]

Generally one wants to keep major values and elite talents, my general philosophy is to lean to value keepers, assuming there's enough elite talent at the top to redraft well enough.

I wouldn't keep Seguin with your 2nd round pick, given what's out there. I note that you spelled Andersen two different ways, and if that's Freddie Andersen, he's fine for a round 3. Carlson makes a lot of sense, and so does Ovechkin. My thoughts on the last spot are Gallagher or maybe Shea Theodore. that would have you keeping: G, LW, D, and D or RW. Should set up nicely.

[Stanley]

Thanks guys,

stevegamer - yes it's Freddie. I was leaning the same way with Seguin. There's one more GM to announce his keepers before my turn, and then 4 more after. A couple guys have some tough choices to make.

[lucafen4]

Ovie I would want to keep - even at R1 price.
Gallagher & Theodore look like good value picks to keep as well.

[TheLettuceBowl]

Yeah I’m thinking Andersen, ovi, Carlson, and either forsberg or Gallagher. If you think there’ll be someone better than forsberg available in R4 I’d take Gallagher. I like forsberg for 70+ points, and Nashville’s PP can’t stay cold forever. But if you think there’ll be a comparable to him in R4, probably gallagher