The Dregs

[DarthVain]

So I am debating on dropping one of my high paid fwd (Blake Wheeler @39$ of 200$ cap) for one of the dregs I have left to protect as it looks like there will be a lot of elite fwd talent available in our draft with long term protection contracts ending. Our league counts points and plus minus.

Here is a selection of what I got left (I'll include the $$$ value, but it probably doesn't matter much as they are all way less, though less is better of course):

Nick Schmaltz @1$
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins @8$
Evander Kane @5$
Kyle Palmieri @1$

and a bunch of others probably not worth mentioning... Though at an outside chance I also have:

Joe Thornton @3$
Tyler Myers @4$

If you could pick any one of the above to keep, who would it be? While it is a keeper pool, I'm primary interested in how they might do this coming year...

[lucafen4]

I would heavily consider Schmaltz at a buck.
He could give you RNH type point production. So you'd potentially be saving $7 there too
It's a big cut from Wheeler 25+pts (from his last 2 seasons) but you walk into your auction/draft with an extra $38 in your pocket too.

[SeaDawg]

Schmaltz at $1 is a great bargain, imo. He will surely outproduce that salary.

Hard to drop Wheeler outright for Schmaltz, but the cost savings is massive and gives you more roster flexibility.

Can you possibly deal Wheeler to acquire some sort of asset (draft pick, prospect, etc.)?

[DarthVain]

Schmaltz was also what I had been mulling about, though his plus/minus on Arizona scares me a bit. Though RNH and Palmieri may not have the best plus/minus either, and both are pretty dependent on Hall and McDavid for pts it seems.

Dealing Wheeler at this point may be tough as no one wants to accept large salary before the draft. I'm also dropping Erik Karlsson @ 45$ for much the same reason. I figure if I want either back I can probably draft them for more less what I am already paying anyway...

Part of my decision is that the likes of Kucherov, Crosby, Gaudreau, Marner, Marchand, Panarin, and Radulov all have long term contracts ending so they must be released into the draft, never mind those like Ovechkin @50$ will likely be released into the draft anyway to make cap room...

[random-d]

I personally like Palmieri here. Even on a garbage NJ team last year he still got 50 points and managed to only get dragged down to a -9. On a much improved team he should be good for another 10 pts and at least even on +/-. I don't really trust Arizona yet, they look like they should be better every year yet they manage to find a way to not improve season after season. Maybe this is the one? I'll wait and see rather than rolling the dice again.

[quantaloup]

Also in an auction league myself.

I never keep the bargain but risky players and always aim for the best players I can have for a decent salary. In this case, I would easily pick the Nuge over the others.

BUT

I would just keep Wheeler, who seems to be at a decent salary for one of the biggest points producers of the last few years.

I like to use the auction to get those bargain 1 or 2$ players. There will be a lot of Nick Schmaltzes available at the auction, but very few Blake Wheelers.

It's a personal strategy, but one that worked quite well in the past for me to use my keeper spots for sure-fire 75+ producers and try to win the bargain players strategically at the auction. It's easier to keep Wheeler and find a bargain quality player at the auction to offset his salary than to keep bargain players and THEN fight over the other owners over the very few superstars available - it's very easy to lose the advantage of having cheap bargain players at the auction : just one bad bid on a Pacioretty and you're done.

Keep your superstars until their salary is 100% over what they would get paid at the auction.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Wheeler is super consistent, but if you've gotta shed salary then Palmieri for $1 seems like the best risk/reward play here...

[HonkyTonkMan]

For $1, give me Palmieri

[DarthVain]

Yes that is the dilemma. The choice is to either keep your big guns, and try to draft the bargains, or to try and keep the bargains and draft your big guns...

Even Galchenyuk is a calculated risk. He has never really produced all that much, however he hasn't never played on Pittsburgh either... I could drop him and keep Karlsson instead and Blake...
However then I would be left with 31$ to draft with which will kind of suck.

I guess part of this is the intangible piece of the playing Fantasy Hockey where if a big part of it is sitting around with 15 guys in a basement for 6 hours I want to be able to do something other than say "pass"...

To be fair I did this same ploy a couple years ago with Karlsson where I had him for 42$, thinking I could just redraft him for that, then ended up paying 45$, so lost 3$ for my efforts... That said his last few seasons haven't been great with injuries either.

The other piece I have found, is that most of the guys I am playing with are quite good. They all read the same stuff, and some I believe frequent Dobber also... So I find other than personal hunches that aren't documented anywhere (that's my Anderson pick btw if anyone was wondering why I am keeping him), there are no such things as "sleepers", or "dark horses", so those "bargain" $1 players tend to cost quite a bit more anyway (unless you just randomly get lucky at the end)... So that is why I tend to try and keep those guys, and then bid on the known values as everyone is going to be doing that anyway.

Though it is hard to part with Blake even at 39$ as he was my 2nd best player, and is likely a pretty good lock for a ton of points. That said, I still might chicken out and keep him over the risk of keeping one of the afore mentioned. I was hoping responses might sway me one way or another. Though again I don't think Karlsson will go for 45$ this year.

So far it seems split between Schmaltz and Palmieri with an honorable mention for RNH. One thing I am also thinking (other than my distaste of Arizona) about his history in that Palmieri hasn't really done all that much is the past, and while neither really has Schmaltz, he has much less history to lean on (i.e. What you see is maybe what you get with Palmieri in a middle of the road kind of player, whereas with Schmaltz perhaps he has a chance to become something more than just that in the right situation....).

Though likely just as big a factor as anything with the above players will be whatever they get as plus/minus which can be somewhat harder to predict (other than they all play on not so great teams for that)...

[DarthVain]

I guess the easy part about keeping Galchenyuk, is that while there is risk involved, at least he is playing for Pittsburgh so there is a much better chance that he isn't going to be -19. Schmalthz, Palmieri, and RNH can't really say that. Though I have read on Dobber I think that NJ might have a bit of improvement this year, and Kessel going to Arizona has to improve their offense, no idea about Edm...

So maybe a better question might just be generally speaking, which of those three teams have perhaps improved the most since last year? Generally I am thinking NJ, but Arizona might not be as bad either, I have a feeling Edm might be a blood bath...

[stevegamer]

I'd actually be willing to drop Hedman & Wheeler for Schmaltz & Palmieri. That is along with Karlsson.

My thought is that you will have freed up almost $150 of a $200 cap, and can pick which stars you want most to fill the last 5 roster spots. I understand that you may pay more for them, but with so many stars in the auction, there are plenty of targets.