View Poll Results: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

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  • Merzliking

    14 50.00%
  • Shesterkin

    14 50.00%
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Thread: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    I'll add that shest was also sheltered against the top teams. Whenever they played a top 5 team - Koskinen received the start & they sat Shest. Says something about trust there too
    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    I voted for Merzlikins as I don't think either of them become very good NHL goalies. One of them costs way less money and is more likely to be in the NHL this season so it's an easy choice for me. Merzlikins is very likely to be one of the two goalies in Columbus this season while there is a good chance that Shestorkin is back in Europe in October since he has a European assignment clause in his contract.

    When you are looking at a goalie's stats, you always need to compare them to the other goalies on his team in addition to the other goalies in the league.

    Looking at the numbers for Shestorkin from 2015/16 through 2017/18, you will noticed that Mikko Koskinen was better than he was on the same team. Then in 2018/19 Magnus Hellberg played more games that Shestorkin and put up similar numbers (a little worse in the regular season but better in the playoffs). These two things tell me that Shestorkin may not be anywhere as good as people want him to be.
    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    It's SKA... the imbalance of competition in the KHL is pretty legendary. As J-P has said before there are teams there that couldn't beat AHL teams.

    Hellberg had more starts than Shestyorkin... here's his numbers:

    24-7-3 1.32 GAA .940 SVPCT 8 SO.

    SKA as a team had 18 shut outs in 62 games and had 76 GA for the season.

    Hellberg - steps in 1st year - has 6 more starts than Shestyorkin... seems odd if he's as good as some prognosticate
    One could argue favouritism of Koskinen over Shestyorkin.. but why wouldn't they run Shestyorkin

    they both had 10 starts in the playoffs with Hellberg holding a .919 svpct to Shestyorkin's .904

    I mean Hellberg couldn't hold an NHL back up job... yet held more than his own statistically against Shestyorkin.

    His numbers are more of a by-product of the strength of SKA as a team.
    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    He only played against the top 8 teams in the KHL a total of six times last year.
    Two games vs CSKA - lost both 3-1; 3-2.
    One game vs. Jokerit - lost in OT 4-3.
    The other 3 teams - Lokamotiv twice - 2 wins...

    Hellberg received the lion-share of starts against the top teams last season in the KHL.
    It seems clear, he was again sheltered against most of the top teams. When he did face them, his numbers were more pedestrian

    One also needs to factor in - by carrying Shestyorkin, you're holding 3.7m in dead cap space for an entire season.
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  2. #17
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    This is so difficult to answer because you haven't layed out your goalie situation. Why draft a goalie at 3.75 million that likely won't help this year, when you are in win now? I'd be more likely to draft Elvis is my goal was to win this year and cap was a factor.

    If you are considering the next few years, it sure would be nice to know what goalies you currently have (i.e. do you really need upside?), and what you'd have to chop to add Shesterkyn.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    This is so difficult to answer because you haven't layed out your goalie situation. Why draft a goalie at 3.75 million that likely won't help this year, when you are in win now? I'd be more likely to draft Elvis is my goal was to win this year and cap was a factor.

    If you are considering the next few years, it sure would be nice to know what goalies you currently have (i.e. do you really need upside?), and what you'd have to chop to add Shesterkyn.
    Ah, an excellent question. I deliberately left details out to make my question easier to answer.

    Our league starts two goalies and counts Wins and SV%. I have Holtby and Dubnyk so I'm set for this year. I would be drafting a goalie prospect for the future when I'll have to replace Holtby when he gets $10+ million AAV on his next contract (or something close to it). Or potentially, if I draft Elvis and he secures the starting job by mid year, I may be able to trade Holtby then.

    Also, thanks to everyone else who added their opinion to this thread.
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Tight against the cap and competing this year, means it's Merzlikins. Or should I say (you forgot another pro of his), Elvis. I'm guessing the "Trots factor" con is Tortorella, not Trotz. Tortorella is an average or so coach for fantasy overall, but awful for some players.

    There's one other big negative for Shesterkin, and that's Georgiev. At this point, he's an established prospect NHL goalie, with two good years as a backup. He's holding down a backup spot, and I think he can actually start more games than Lundqvist this year. If he plays well, that's a further delay. I know that Russia treated him as their #3 goalie in most of the competitions he went to, but he was their #3 goalie for a bit. It's not inconceivable that his transition goes much better than the more highly touted prospect.
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  5. #20
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    In all likelihood, Hellberg is a very good goaltender in his own right. He had wonderful numbers -- even for the KHL -- and looking at his career numbers in the AHL they are very good. He's only got 4 NHL games played, and two were very bad while two were very good, so it's difficult to draw any conclusions there. I think it's generally a good thing that Shesterkin is comparing favorably to a 28-year old goalie with stud numbers as a KHL starter who's had success in a bunch of different leagues, especially while Shesty only just turned 23 this season.
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    Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Tight against the cap and competing this year, means it's Merzlikins. Or should I say (you forgot another pro of his), Elvis. I'm guessing the "Trots factor" con is Tortorella, not Trotz. Tortorella is an average or so coach for fantasy overall, but awful for some players.

    There's one other big negative for Shesterkin, and that's Georgiev. At this point, he's an established prospect NHL goalie, with two good years as a backup. He's holding down a backup spot, and I think he can actually start more games than Lundqvist this year. If he plays well, that's a further delay. I know that Russia treated him as their #3 goalie in most of the competitions he went to, but he was their #3 goalie for a bit. It's not inconceivable that his transition goes much better than the more highly touted prospect.
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Might be a stupid question, but can you draft Samsanov (as Holtby protection)...or Sorokin (no cap, but presumably a bright future)?

    Given all I know, I'd still draft to win this year (i.e. Elvis - affordable cap and could get you lots of starts). Shesterkyn will end up on a rebuilding team or a team with a crap load of cap space, I suspect.

  8. #23
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by als_revenge View Post
    Might be a stupid question, but can you draft Samsanov (as Holtby protection)...or Sorokin (no cap, but presumably a bright future)?

    Given all I know, I'd still draft to win this year (i.e. Elvis - affordable cap and could get you lots of starts). Shesterkyn will end up on a rebuilding team or a team with a crap load of cap space, I suspect.
    Samsonov is taken and Sorokin is not available as he has no NHL contract.
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Samsonov is taken and Sorokin is not available as he has no NHL contract.
    Kahkonen ?
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  10. #25
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Kahkonen ?
    Kahkonen better than either of those? I don't think so. Neither talent nor opportunity.
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Kahkonen better than either of those? I don't think so. Neither talent nor opportunity.
    if he's unowned - he's claimable. You said yourself - Samsonov is owned - not an option. Sorokin isn't signed - so you can't claim him - not an option. Samsonov didn't have a very good 1st AHL season. They'll re-sign Holtby for multiple years. Copley is showing well as a back up. Once Holtby re-ups for say 3 years - Samsonov is essentially blocked for 4 from a starting gig.

    Who knows how 'ready' Sorokin will be when he arrives. We've had 2 KHL goalies come over in the past year - Koskinen & Samsonov... to say the least, neither have blown the doors off of anyone... 'yet'.

    Seems like Kahkonen is both - signed and available. he has as good or better opportunity than Samsonov.

    Dubnyk 2yrs left - age 33
    Stalock 3yrs left age 32 - $785k - a contract that can easily be buried. Kahkonen is only going to need one big injury to make inroads. There's really no one else in their system close to ready.

    He's also the same age as Samsonov... don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    Going back to the OP... Shestyorkin's situation isn't clear either. Merzlikins seems to give the best opportunity for 2019/20 production at a much cheaper cost. $3m in cap space will come in handy to a competing team at a trade deadline
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  12. #27
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    if he's unowned - he's claimable. You said yourself - Samsonov is owned - not an option. Sorokin isn't signed - so you can't claim him - not an option. Samsonov didn't have a very good 1st AHL season. They'll re-sign Holtby for multiple years. Copley is showing well as a back up. Once Holtby re-ups for say 3 years - Samsonov is essentially blocked for 4 from a starting gig.

    Who knows how 'ready' Sorokin will be when he arrives. We've had 2 KHL goalies come over in the past year - Koskinen & Samsonov... to say the least, neither have blown the doors off of anyone... 'yet'.

    Seems like Kahkonen is both - signed and available. he has as good or better opportunity than Samsonov.

    Dubnyk 2yrs left - age 33
    Stalock 3yrs left age 32 - $785k - a contract that can easily be buried. Kahkonen is only going to need one big injury to make inroads. There's really no one else in their system close to ready.

    He's also the same age as Samsonov... don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    Going back to the OP... Shestyorkin's situation isn't clear either. Merzlikins seems to give the best opportunity for 2019/20 production at a much cheaper cost. $3m in cap space will come in handy to a competing team at a trade deadline
    Thanks for your thoughts.
    I think I will be able to snag Kahkonen later, if I wanted yet another goalie prospect. He is not as hyped as the other two and should be available. Also, I already have Petersen and Nedeljkovic so I can't stack up on too many prospects as all players' AAV, playing or not, counts towards the cap.
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  13. #28
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by VincentVega View Post
    Thanks for your thoughts.
    I think I will be able to snag Kahkonen later, if I wanted yet another goalie prospect. He is not as hyped as the other two and should be available. Also, I already have Petersen and Nedeljkovic so I can't stack up on too many prospects as all players' AAV, playing or not, counts towards the cap.
    I'd have Kahkonen in the same tier as Nedeljkovic and Petersen, though probably behind those two. As luca said, he's probably the heir apparent to dubnyk right now and there's only two more seasons left on that contract. He's got good pedigree, and had major success in Liiga before coming to the AHL. He started off his AHL career with three shutouts, or something crazy like that, so the upside is very clear. I would expect that he's Minnesota's starter within three seasons -- a good timeline for a prospect goalie.
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    Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin

  14. #29
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    I don't play in a cap league but I understand wasting $$$ for that time. But I think I would go with Shesterkin still. I think he'll slide in as a full time starter 22-23 but with the way goalies look might be a cheap option by then. And NYR looks to be on track to improve by then...
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  15. #30
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    Default Re: Merzliking vs Shesterkin

    Quote Originally Posted by Kabonov View Post
    I don't play in a cap league but I understand wasting $$$ for that time. But I think I would go with Shesterkin still. I think he'll slide in as a full time starter 22-23 but with the way goalies look might be a cheap option by then. And NYR looks to be on track to improve by then...
    I hear you but it'll be very difficult to park $3.775 million on my bench for 3 years. I am going to be competitive.
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