Merzliking vs Shesterkin

[VincentVega]

Will likely have an opportunity to draft one of these two goalies.
Important consideration: salary cap league where AAV is used. every player's AAV counts towards the cap

Merzliking AAV: $874125
Shesterkin AAV: $3775000

I am very tight against the cap and competing this year.

Merzliking pros: cheaper, better opportunity this year, fantasy relevance sooner
Merzliking cons : not as talented, Torts factor(?)

Shesterkin pros: more talented (arguably) as he put up insane numbers in the KHL last season.
Shesterkin cons: not relevant this season and perhaps next; likely to start being useful in 2021/22 season and that's a long time to keep $3775000 on your bench

So based on all of this, I am leaning towards Merzliking.

Any thoughts?
Thanks in advance!

[lucafen4]

As soon as you mention cap-crunch - you need to take the more useful player now.
There's a risk with Merz as well that he gets brought along slowly this season, but much less of a risk than with Shest.

[StuM]

Have to go with Merz

[evans334]

Will likely have an opportunity to draft one of these two goalies.
Important consideration: salary cap league where AAV is used. every player's AAV counts towards the cap

Merzliking AAV: $874125
Shesterkin AAV: $3775000

How is this his cap hit already?

Edit: Nevermind, I see the AAV with performance bonuses on Capfriendly.

Personally, i'm going with BPA and figuring out my cap crunch later, so it's Shesterkin for me.

There's got to be some other options on your team where you can move salary out?

[mounD]

I'm going with Shesterkin because I firmly believe he's going to be an elite NHL starter, whereas Merzlikins is just a lottery ticket with a good organizational situation.

[PrairieDog]

Shesterkin and it's not close.

[Dennis]

How is this his cap hit already?

Edit: Nevermind, I see the AAV with performance bonuses on Capfriendly.

Personally, i'm going with BPA and figuring out my cap crunch later, so it's Shesterkin for me.

There's got to be some other options on your team where you can move salary out?

I'm going with Shesterkin because I firmly believe he's going to be an elite NHL starter, whereas Merzlikins is just a lottery ticket with a good organizational situation.

This and this.

He may prove me wrong in the near future but I'm not drinking the Elvis Kool-aid quite yet.

[Axeman33]

I am going with Shesterkin as well. Both come with concerns but I am less concerned with Shesterkin's upside and skillset compared to Merzlikin. Then again, when it comes to goalies, who really knows until the show it and right now, we are going off what we've seen from different leagues.

None the less, Shesterkin is one of my top ranked prospect goalies (which does include both) so I'll go with that for now.

In a years time, Merzlikins could prove us all wrong and he could be the better option. Stranger things have happened.

[chuckcouples]

I voted for Merzlikins as I don't think either of them become very good NHL goalies. One of them costs way less money and is more likely to be in the NHL this season so it's an easy choice for me. Merzlikins is very likely to be one of the two goalies in Columbus this season while there is a good chance that Shestorkin is back in Europe in October since he has a European assignment clause in his contract.

When you are looking at a goalie's stats, you always need to compare them to the other goalies on his team in addition to the other goalies in the league.

Looking at the numbers for Shestorkin from 2015/16 through 2017/18, you will noticed that Mikko Koskinen was better than he was on the same team. Then in 2018/19 Magnus Hellberg played more games that Shestorkin and put up similar numbers (a little worse in the regular season but better in the playoffs). These two things tell me that Shestorkin may not be anywhere as good as people want him to be.

[lucafen4]

I voted for Merzlikins as I don't think either of them become very good NHL goalies. One of them costs way less money and is more likely to be in the NHL this season so it's an easy choice for me. Merzlikins is very likely to be one of the two goalies in Columbus this season while there is a good chance that Shestorkin is back in Europe in October since he has a European assignment clause in his contract.

When you are looking at a goalie's stats, you always need to compare them to the other goalies on his team in addition to the other goalies in the league.

Looking at the numbers for Shestorkin from 2015/16 through 2017/18, you will noticed that Mikko Koskinen was better than he was on the same team. Then in 2018/19 Magnus Hellberg played more games that Shestorkin and put up similar numbers (a little worse in the regular season but better in the playoffs). These two things tell me that Shestorkin may not be anywhere as good as people want him to be.

I'll add that shest was also sheltered against the top teams. Whenever they played a top 5 team - Koskinen received the start & they sat Shest. Says something about trust there too

[Axeman33]

I'll add that shest was also sheltered against the top teams. Whenever they played a top 5 team - Koskinen received the start & they sat Shest. Says something about trust there too

How do you explain his incredible numbers last season when Koskinen wasn't there?

[lucafen4]

How do you explain his incredible numbers last season when Koskinen wasn't there?

It's SKA... the imbalance of competition in the KHL is pretty legendary. As J-P has said before there are teams there that couldn't beat AHL teams.

Hellberg had more starts than Shestyorkin... here's his numbers:

24-7-3 1.32 GAA .940 SVPCT 8 SO.

SKA as a team had 18 shut outs in 62 games and had 76 GA for the season.

Hellberg - steps in 1st year - has 6 more starts than Shestyorkin... seems odd if he's as good as some prognosticate
One could argue favouritism of Koskinen over Shestyorkin.. but why wouldn't they run Shestyorkin

they both had 10 starts in the playoffs with Hellberg holding a .919 svpct to Shestyorkin's .904

I mean Hellberg couldn't hold an NHL back up job... yet held more than his own statistically against Shestyorkin.

His numbers are more of a by-product of the strength of SKA as a team.

[Axeman33]

I am not disagreeing with your comment about the league, more disagreeing about your comment that his numbers were bolstered because Koskinen faced the tougher competition. Clearly that didn't happen last year and his numbers were still impressive.

[Wotan]

Merzlikins for me.

I've seen him play a fair bit and he IS good. He posted very solid numbers over four seasons as the clear no1 of an average team (and has also been solid as a rock for team Latvia) while Shesterkin was in a sheltered role playing for a dominant team. So give me the more proven guy with the less fanfare but the better opportunity.

With Gs, opportunity is way more important than hype. How many hyped Gs have not panned out and how many have come out of nowhere and been excellent? Lugano is pretty nowhere also for Swiss standarts, but I don't think I should bet against Merzlikins because of it.

[lucafen4]

I am not disagreeing with your comment about the league, more disagreeing about your comment that his numbers were bolstered because Koskinen faced the tougher competition. Clearly that didn't happen last year and his numbers were still impressive.

He only played against the top 8 teams in the KHL a total of six times last year.
Two games vs CSKA - lost both 3-1; 3-2.
One game vs. Jokerit - lost in OT 4-3.
The other 3 teams - Lokamotiv twice - 2 wins...

Hellberg received the lion-share of starts against the top teams last season in the KHL.
It seems clear, he was again sheltered against most of the top teams. When he did face them, his numbers were more pedestrian

One also needs to factor in - by carrying Shestyorkin, you're holding 3.7m in dead cap space for an entire season.