Draisaitl vs Pettersson

[quantaloup]

For the league in sig.

I am the Draisaitl owner. Draisaitl will be 22$ next year, while Pettersson will be 8$. Both are amazing deals, as top stars like Kane or Matthews go for about 55+$ at the auction.

I am a huge believer in EP's upside for close to 100 pts, I'm just not sure he can reach this production level this year. Also, somehow I can't see Draisaitl reaching 100 pts, 50 goals again this year.

There will be lots of elite players available at the auction. I'd like to have a bit of cap space going in.

I'd like to hear your thoughts.

[Axeman33]

I guess it depends on who you consider "elite" (god I hate that word) and what you expect to pay for them.

Personally, I would keep Draisaitl because you already have the bird in hand. You have one of the best young players in the game (how many score 50Gs and 100pts anymore these days) locked up for a bargain contract. I am not sure why you don't feel Draisaitl isn't a viable candidate to repeat what he just did last year. What's changed, other than the coach?

As far as EP goes, I am not as confident on his ability to come close to the century mark as you are. Sure, he's a good talent, but he doesn't have the talent around him to get himself there IMO. I do agree that his price is excellent but I still think Draisaitl is the smarter play here.

If I am reading your sig correctly, both players go up by $7 next year? Is this an annual thing or do they both eventually become FAs that others can bid on?

[quantaloup]

By elite, I would mean 80+ pts forwards, in this case. They will run for 55$ and over. McDavid usually goes for 70$.

I guess the coach change scares me a bit, along with his high shooting percentage (also a "problem" for Pettersson, though). May be a classic case of overthinking.

All kept players go up by 7$ annually, yeah.

Thank you for your input!

[Axeman33]

By elite, I would mean 80+ pts forwards, in this case. They will run for 55$ and over. McDavid usually goes for 70$.

I guess the coach change scares me a bit, along with his high shooting percentage (also a "problem" for Pettersson, though). May be a classic case of overthinking.

All kept players go up by 7$ annually, yeah.

Thank you for your input!

So how does someone like McDavid get to a value of $70? I don't get it. Surely he has always been kept after getting drafted. It's not like he's been in the league that long that the $7 annual bump gets him that high.

As far as the coaching change goes, Hitch was known as a defensive coach himself and that sure didn't slow down Draisaitl. I doubt Tippett will slow him down either.

[quantaloup]

It's a limited keeper. Owners will keep the best $/pts players and release the others in the auction. McDavid went for 50$+ in his rookie year. At the end of the auction, there is a regular draft for the players that are left. Pettersson was drafted this way and ended up on a farm team (as long as they stay on a farm team, their salary stays at 0$, and as soon as they are activated, their salary becomes 1$ and can'T go back to the farm).

[SkylaRay]

If the cost of each of Draisaitl and Pettersson is going to increase at the same rate of $7 per year it would seem to me that you will get better value out of Pettersson.

[Axeman33]

It's a limited keeper. Owners will keep the best $/pts players and release the others in the auction. McDavid went for 50$+ in his rookie year. At the end of the auction, there is a regular draft for the players that are left. Pettersson was drafted this way and ended up on a farm team (as long as they stay on a farm team, their salary stays at 0$, and as soon as they are activated, their salary becomes 1$ and can'T go back to the farm).

So you don't draft your rookies, you bid on them?

[quantaloup]

Correct. We can bid on any drafted player. When the team positional requirements are met, we proceed to the draft (where we draft our bench and our farm team).

[lucafen4]

A move like this is probably best answered with - Are you trying to win THIS YEAR?

If your answer i yes, Draisaitl is the clear choice.
If it's no or I'm not sure... then I take Pettersson.
In 2 years EP will be at the value Draisaitl is now. His performance may or may not be at Draisaitl's level now.
That's the inherent risk you take.

If you say both are great value deals right now - but you want cap space going into your auction.
I suggest trimming fat from contracts that aren't so value laden.

[quantaloup]

A move like this is probably best answered with - Are you trying to win THIS YEAR?

In a limited keeper, this question is hard to answer. Sure, we can show up at the auction with 3 excellent keepers at a low price, but ultimately, it will all depend on your performance during the auction.

My current keeper options are Mackinnon (32$), Draisaitl (15$), Lindholm (3$), Couturier (8$) and even Burns (49$).

I have solid options, but so does other GMs.

I guess that with Draisaitl, I'm still better positionned to win next year, though.

[lucafen4]

In a limited keeper, this question is hard to answer. Sure, we can show up at the auction with 3 excellent keepers at a low price, but ultimately, it will all depend on your performance during the auction.

My current keeper options are Mackinnon (32$), Draisaitl (15$), Lindholm (3$), Couturier (8$) and even Burns (49$).

I have solid options, but so does other GMs.

I guess that with Draisaitl, I'm still better positionned to win next year, though.

I lean to keeping Draisaitl.
That said... what is the value of having an extra $14 in the auction really worth? Perhaps that's the real side of this that needs to be analyzed.

Since it would basically be Draisaitl OR Pettersson AND ____.
If keeping Pettersson makes MacKinnon easier to keep... then it changes viewpoints.

[quantaloup]

Good point indeed.

14$ will buy you a Johansen, maybe a Arvidsson type of player. More importantly, this 14$ can be used to make it easier to buy another "elite" option (which goes for 50+$).

That said, people are going to the auction with an exceptional amount of money in the bank compared to the last few years, so I'm not sure what to expect. Which is why auctions are so damn exciting.

[lucafen4]

Good point indeed.

14$ will buy you a Johansen, maybe a Arvidsson type of player. More importantly, this 14$ can be used to make it easier to buy another "elite" option (which goes for 50+$).

That said, people are going to the auction with an exceptional amount of money in the bank compared to the last few years, so I'm not sure what to expect. Which is why auctions are so damn exciting.

Kinda means you might need to keep Pettersson to put yourself on an even playing field.

[fungchen3]

This coming season, I see this ...

Draisaitl, Leon: 42G / 51A / 93P
Pettersson, Elias: 31G / 47A / 78P

... so my question to you is: are a potential 15 points worth those difference in millions?

[stevegamer]

I lean Pettersson here. Basically, you get to keep MacKinnon for 2 more years by making this move for the downgrade. I wonder if you could trade MacKinnon instead, actually?