Ovi - Wheeler - Laine - Hertl : pick two

[DrJob23]

I’m in the final miles of reflexion on who to protect in my expansion draft. I am the 10th team of a point-only salary cap keeper league, see settings in signature.

Which two forwards would you pick - wanting to win next year, but also 2-3 years from now :

Laine RFA, new contract coming
Ovechkin 9,53 / 2Y
Wheeler 8,25 / 5Y
Hertl 5,625 / 3Y

pick one :

Zibanejad 5,35M / 3y
Domi 3,15M / 1Y

pick a defenseman to go with Hedman and Makar:

Subban 9M /
Trouba 8M / 7Y
Ryan Ellis 6,25M / 8Y
Nurse 3,2M / 1Y

i can choose one goalie between :

Holtby 6,1M / 1Y
Binnington 4,4M / 2Y
Grubauer 3,3M / 2Y

thanks a lot!

[mounD]

Points only salary cap, I'd go with Hertl and Laine. I'm guessing Laine is going to sign a bridge deal, and he's going to be a monster value. You could end up with like 150 points there for $11-12 mil combined.

Zibanejad. The price point for a three-year term is fantastic.

Nurse. He's cheap, and I don't think spending $5m+ more to get ~ 15 more points is good use of your cap.

Grubauer. Cheap, cost-controlled, great team on the rise. Checks all the boxes.

[DrJob23]

I agree with you on all points, but i am really excited to see the PP in New Jersey and NYR. Trouba is younger than PK and looks promising, i think he can get 55-65 in the next years. I saw on other threads that not anybody trust Nurse to emerge as the PP1 D and go over 35-40 pts.

I also really liked your view on Grubauer and Colorado, i liked their off season and am thrilled to see how it turns on the ice. It is tough to pass on Holtby though... a contract year, i feel he is a sure bet to succeed, versus Grubauer’s first year as a number one goalie.

It is my first keeper pool, so i thank you for your thoughts on cap management. I thought i could set the tone by choosing Trouba-Hedman-Makar for a solid top-3. Nurse instead of Trouba or Subban is less sexy but should be efficient on the long run.

[jshed2]

Ovi - Guy is a points machine. Even if Laine bridges you're only looking at 2.5M in savings most likely compared to Ovi, but Ovi is a lock for 85+ point while who knows with Laine.
Hertl - Cheap, coming off a breakout season and has an even better opportunity this year

Zibanejad - Just got a nice linemate with Panarin, has more history of scoring at a decent pace than Domi, and is locked in on a bargain deal for two extra years.

Nurse - Gets to feed McDavid and is on a bargain bin deal. Other option would be Ellis, but he has much more competition to deal with.

Binnington - I consider him a Grubauer to be about equal. Both are relatively inexperienced starters, but one won the cup. I'd also expect to have an easier time keeping him than Binnington just on the basis of name value.

[DrJob23]

And which pair would you guys take :

Panarin + Labanc
Backstrom + Larkin
Larkin+ Labanc

[jshed2]

And which pair would you guys take :

Panarin + Labanc
Backstrom + Larkin
Larkin+ Labanc

I'd go Larkin + Labanc. Larkin is the guy in DET and again on a very reasonable contract, Labanc is on an absolute steal this year at 1M.

[mounD]

I'd go Larkin + Labanc. Larkin is the guy in DET and again on a very reasonable contract, Labanc is on an absolute steal this year at 1M.

Yeah, agreed on both. You set yourself up with so much cap flexibility with these guys.

[DrJob23]

It’s hard for me not to take Panarin ‘cause i see fireworks in NYR with Kaako, Zib, Buchnevich and Trouba on the PP.

on the other hand i know Larkin is only 22 vs 27 for Panarin, and i like is TOI and production. I see Mantha and Athanasiou improving a lot and having a breakout season.

Can others convince me to my first thought of taking Panarin over Larkin? thanks

[DrJob23]

So my top 4F would be Larkin - Labanc - Laine - Hertl
On D : Hedman - Makar - Nurse
G Grubauer or Holtby

Finally What other 2F should i choose between these guys?

Bergeron 6,75
Giroux 8,25
Dadonov 4M
Mittelstadt 925K
Rakell 3,79M
RNH 6M
Drouin 5,5M
Mantha 3,3M

[mounD]

So my top 4F would be Larkin - Labanc - Laine - Hertl
On D : Hedman - Makar - Nurse
G Grubauer or Holtby

Finally What other 2F should i choose between these guys?

Bergeron 6,75
Giroux 8,25
Dadonov 4M
Mittelstadt 925K
Rakell 3,79M
RNH 6M
Drouin 5,5M
Mantha 3,3M

Points-only I like Dadonov and Mantha. I like both guys as 70-point options (or close to it) for a very good price tag.

[DrJob23]

Thanks a lot for your feedback.

My team would be

Laine
Hertl
Larkin
Zibanejad
Dadonov
Labanc

Hedman - Makar - Nurse

Grubauer

I would be at 44,86M on a max cap of 94,5M and still to draft 12 players : 6F-3D-1G
- 2 bench

the other poolers have 47M to 62M in protected 6F-3D-1G.

Shouldn’t i be more aggressive and reach for Panarin or Trouba/Subban/Ellis instead of Nurse?

[mounD]

Thanks a lot for your feedback.

My team would be

Laine
Hertl
Larkin
Zibanejad
Dadonov
Labanc

Hedman - Makar - Nurse

Grubauer

I would be at 44,86M on a max cap of 94,5M and still to draft 12 players : 6F-3D-1G
- 2 bench

the other poolers have 47M to 62M in protected 6F-3D-1G.

Shouldn’t i be more aggressive and reach for Panarin or Trouba/Subban/Ellis instead of Nurse?

Nurse should be a good bet for around 35-40 points, whereas you could potentially get in the range of 50-55 or so from another option like Trouba/Subban. Would it really be worthwhile to spend another $5m or more just to add 15 points, or could you make better use of that $5m to add more than 15 points elsewhere on the roster? I feel like it's probably the latter, although you know your league the best.

[DrJob23]

Thanks a lot mounD!
last question, for the goalie position; who would you choose between

Price 10M
Rask 7
Holtby 6,1
Binnington 4,4
Grubauer 3,33
Murray 3,75
Markstrom 3,67

[mounD]

I'll still take Grubauer because he's locked in to that contract for two more seasons. Murray was my second choice, followed by Binnington.