The Fluff Thread (Ask Mound Anything)

[Axeman33]

More like pot-committed.

LOL!

[mounD]

LOL!

I'm close enough that I kinda just have to do it at this point.

[Big Baby]

William Nylander. What will be be saying g about him after next season.

[mounD]

William Nylander. What will be be saying g about him after next season.

People will be wondering how everyone didn't see the big breakout coming. This guy's underlying metrics have been unbelievable for basically his whole career so far, and his combination with Matthews has produced elite results. Nylander is a player I am keying on for a major step forward this season, I wouldn't be surprised if he eclipsed 80 points alongside Matthews. The real wildcard here is whether he can find himself on the PP1 unit, and given the departure of Kadri I think he can occupy that slot/bumper role.

He has shown to be a player who can perform at a high IPP%, with two of the four years he has been in the NHL finishing above 80% in that regard. He also has great possession / xG stats, and very good powerplay impacts over a large sample size, as shown by Evolving Wild's RAPM metric:

nylander.png

The Leafs certainly have a lot of potential PP1 options with the arrival of Tyson Barrie. It's possible they could use a 3F-2D with Barrie acting as a rover/forward, they could use 4F-1D with Nylander taking Kadri's place, they could use 4F-1D with Marner/Matthews swapping to their off wings as one-timer options with Barrie on the point instead of Rielly to maximize the one-timer exchange between the point and the right wall with Matthews. They have lots of options, but I feel like Nylander is going to be included in enough of those to provide a big boost to his PP production. I think we can expect closer to 20-25 PPP along with even strength production at least comparable to his 2017-18 levels. That would put him on track for 70-75 points.

And oh wait, someone is also going into his fourth full season in the NHL. If he can add a little bit of ice time, increase his PP1 usage, and continue his natural progression as a high-end scorer with elite possession and xG metrics, I see no reason why a point-per-game type breakout season isn't in the cards. To answer your question again, I think by the end of the 2019-20 season, William Nylander's $6.9 million contract will seem very ... nice indeed.

[GinFizz]

Is Svech, Q Hughes and K. Connor enough for McDavid and Eberle in a 24 team Dynasty?

[mounD]

Is Svech, Q Hughes and K. Connor enough for McDavid and Eberle in a 24 team Dynasty?

No way. I would want a boatload more as the McDavid owner. And I love Svechnikov more than a lot of other people around here. And I like Quinn Hughes more than Makar. Even taking that into account, I would instantly decline that offer in pretty much any format. I think if you swapped out Kyle Connor for a real top-tier talent like a Point, Hall, Eichel type guy then you'd be cooking with gas.

[newper114]

Hey thanks for doing this would love to hear thoughts on Mittelstadt, R. Thomas, and Pavelski

Thanks

[mounD]

Hey thanks for doing this would love to hear thoughts on Mittelstadt, R. Thomas, and Pavelski

Thanks

I'm on record as not the biggest Mittelstadt fan around these boards. I feel like he's going to be left out of the prime PP1 deployment, and could end up being passed by a guy like Cozens who's got a very interesting skillset. I don't want to dump on the player, as he should be a steady middle-six playmaker in their lineup long term. I'm thinking a Josh Bailey type of guy is his ceiling. Not bad, just not as great as some people might've expected.

I am, however, incredibly bullish on Rob "Smooth" Thomas. I think he's going to be a fixture in the Blues top-six by the end of the season, probably alongside O'Rielly, and 50 points wouldn't surprise me at all. Could see a similar points trajectory to someone like Brayden Point, just slightly downgraded a bit. Think 33 - 50 - 70, or something along those lines. He's not far off being a very significant fantasy contributor in most leagues.

Pavelski is a difficult one to project. He's probably moving to a slightly lesser situation in Dallas, though its up for debate. With San Jose, one of Burns/Karlsson was pretty much always on the ice with Pavelski at 5v5 and on PP1 with guys like Couture, Meier, Hertl, Labanc, Thornton as regular linemates. Dallas does boast Klingberg and Heiskanen as very talented options on the blueline, but that's not in the same stratosphere as guys like Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns. While guys like Seguin, Radulov, Benn, and Hintz represent some great potential linemates, I think I would still give a slight advantage to his situation with the Sharks because of the elite puckmovers on D. Additionally, Pavelski shot almost 6% higher than his three-year average and 7.5% above his career mark. There's likely going to be a pretty decent drop in goal scoring unless he can jack up the shot rates.

I'm thinking 25 goals and 60-65 points would be a really nice season with Dallas. Best case scenario: he gets Benn-Hintz-Pavelski at 5v5 and consistent PP1 deployment playing net-front with Benn-Seguin-Radulov-Klingberg. The PP1 deployment is basically guaranteed, but there's a chance the Stars roll with Benn-Seguin-Radulov, in which case L2 would be something like Hintz (C) and Pavelski (RW) with one of Dickinson/Gurianov at LW. That's nowhere close to having Benn as your regular LW. If he sticks with Benn-Hintz most of the year, then we could be looking at 70+ points. Likely it's a mix of these combos and he's around 60-65.

[Eskimo Brother]

What are your other biggest hobbies outside of hockey?

[mounD]

What are your other biggest hobbies outside of hockey?

Obsessed with political struggle, play a mediocre guitar, love a good shitpost on twitter, also enjoy getting too drunk at the bar and screaming about how I would have more Cup rings than Jim Rutherford if I were GM of the Penguins. Sports are a nice distraction from real stuff.

[beyondthewall19]

Obsessed with political struggle, play a mediocre guitar, love a good shitpost on twitter, also enjoy getting too drunk at the bar and screaming about how I would have more Cup rings than Jim Rutherford if I were GM of the Penguins. Sports are a nice distraction from real stuff.

That's not saying much.

Where do you peg L. Kunin or B. Lemieux? Another year away?

[random-d]

People will be wondering how everyone didn't see the big breakout coming. This guy's underlying metrics have been unbelievable for basically his whole career so far, and his combination with Matthews has produced elite results. Nylander is a player I am keying on for a major step forward this season, I wouldn't be surprised if he eclipsed 80 points alongside Matthews. The real wildcard here is whether he can find himself on the PP1 unit, and given the departure of Kadri I think he can occupy that slot/bumper role.

He has shown to be a player who can perform at a high IPP%, with two of the four years he has been in the NHL finishing above 80% in that regard. He also has great possession / xG stats, and very good powerplay impacts over a large sample size, as shown by Evolving Wild's RAPM metric:

nylander.png

The Leafs certainly have a lot of potential PP1 options with the arrival of Tyson Barrie. It's possible they could use a 3F-2D with Barrie acting as a rover/forward, they could use 4F-1D with Nylander taking Kadri's place, they could use 4F-1D with Marner/Matthews swapping to their off wings as one-timer options with Barrie on the point instead of Rielly to maximize the one-timer exchange between the point and the right wall with Matthews. They have lots of options, but I feel like Nylander is going to be included in enough of those to provide a big boost to his PP production. I think we can expect closer to 20-25 PPP along with even strength production at least comparable to his 2017-18 levels. That would put him on track for 70-75 points.

And oh wait, someone is also going into his fourth full season in the NHL. If he can add a little bit of ice time, increase his PP1 usage, and continue his natural progression as a high-end scorer with elite possession and xG metrics, I see no reason why a point-per-game type breakout season isn't in the cards. To answer your question again, I think by the end of the 2019-20 season, William Nylander's $6.9 million contract will seem very ... nice indeed.

Would all of this still be true if Marner had already signed an extension?

[PenguinHunter]

Why should you stand in a corner when you are cold?

[lucafen4]

Who will finish top 3 in points for Ottawa & your point predictions?

[mounD]

That's not saying much.

Where do you peg L. Kunin or B. Lemieux? Another year away?

It's hard to project these guys accurately, since they're both likely bottom-six options on teams that have a ton of capable wingers, but not much certainty in the lineups. Both the Wild and the Rangers could go with so many different options, but these two guys are likely outside the top-six any way you shake it. I think in Minnesota the first and second-line wingers are going to be Zucker/Parise and Zuccarello/Fiala, being centered by Staal/Koivu. So that leaves guys like Donato, Kunin, and Greenway most likely on a third line with Eriksson Ek. I don't know if we can expect more than 40 points at the absolute high end, without prime PP minutes or top-six.

Brendan Lemieux, I'm not even sure where he ends up in the Rangers lineup. They've got tons of different options, but on the wings specifically Panarin/Kreider as the top LW, and Kakko/Buchnevich/Kravtsov as the top RW. HE could potentially grab a LW spot on one of the bottom-six formations, but guys like Lias Andersson, Namestnikov, Chytil, and Howden are all possibilities for either LW3-4 or C3-4. I can envision the Rangers going with a lineup in which Lemieux is the 13th forward:

Panarin-Zibanejad-Buchnevich
Kreider-Strome-Kakko
Namestnikov-Chytil-Kravtsov
Lias-Howden-Fast

It's likely they move some guys out, as they're already coming up against the cap with contracts like Staal, Shattenkirk, and Brendan Smith causing problems. Namestnikov is a prime candidate to move, as well. I think if Namestnikov is traded, then Lemieux slots into either the LW3 or LW4 spot in the lineup, I would guess the fourth line with Howden-Fast. But it's really speculative at this point, and I don't really have an answer for you. Sorry.