Re: Leftovers vs. 2019 Class in Multi-Cat League with Shallow Prospect Roster
Originally Posted by
rj45lan
League setup:
- 12-team H2H league with a 22-man main roster (3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 6Bench) and a 10-man prospect roster (28-yo or under on NHL opening day, 80GP for skaters, and 50GP for goalies).
- Skater categories: G, A, PPP, SOG, PIM, HIT, BLK, FOW. Identifying prospects with good peripherals has always been a challenge.
- Goalie categories: W, SV, SV%, GAA.
- Keep 17 veterans and 5 prospects. Annual 5-round prospect and veteran drafts are held to replenish roster back to 22 + 10. There are no positional limits for keepers, so goalies are often at a premium.
- There is an in-season auction system for prospects undrafted in the league. Auctions are mostly used for undrafted minor league goalies who emerge to play NHL games, e.g., Binnington and Delia from last season, because there aren't many mid-season call-ups for undrafted skater prospects who are worthwhile.
- Prospects can be shuttled between main and prospect rosters in-season, so a team can own more than 10 eligible prospects through trades or auctions, as long as at most 10 are on the prospect roster at a time. Prospects who graduate in-season can stay on prospect roster until keeper declaration for next season, when he needs to be either dropped or kept on main roster. If in-season graduates aren't demoted to prospect roster before they graduate, they stay on the main roster or have to be dropped.
- Part of the auction budget for the upcoming season can also be used to keep extra prospects beyond 5. If the extra prospects are kept on the prospect roster, then the owner would forfeit late prospect draft picks. If the extra prospects are kept as part of the 17 veteran keepers, then no picks would be forfeited. Auction budget can't be used to keep extra veterans on the main roster. If an owner chooses to spend auction budget on an extra prospect keepers, then they usually wouldn't be in the position to win more than 1 in-season prospect auction.
Historically, around 4 to 5 of the 12 owners would choose to keep 1 or 2 extra prospects and forfeit picks. The prospect draft turns to be current-class heavy in the first 2 rounds, with a 2:1 ratio between current class and leftovers. The remaining 3 rounds would be more leftover heavy, with a 1:3 ratio between current class and leftovers. The total number of current-class prospects drafted each year works out around 23 ~ 25, with most being real-life 1st rounders (only 1 ~ 3 real-life 2nd rounders and beyond get drafted in their first year). Due to the goalie premium, the few available prospect goalies who would be backups in the NHL that season get picked around rounds 3 and 4. Positionally, the picks go about 65% F, 20% D, and 15% G each year.
Some noteworthy leftovers for the upcoming draft are:
- F: Ryan Poehling, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Luke Kunin, Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier, Taro Hirose, Vitali Abramov, Ilya Mikheyev, Victor Olofsson, Sasha Chmelevski, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Akil Thomas, German Rubtsov, Max Jones, Jesse Ylonen.
- D: Erik Brannstrom, Erik Cernak, Filip Hronek, Dante Fabbro, Adam Fox, Noah Juulsen, Rasmus Sandin, Dennis Cholowski, K'Andre Miller, Kale Clague, Olli Juolevi, Jake Bean, Alexander Alexeyev, Nicolas Beaudin, Scott Perunovich.
- G: Elvis Merzlikins, Alex Nedeljkovic, Kaapo Kahkonen, Daniil Tarasov, Josef Korenar, Eric Comrie, Tristan Jarry, Lukas Dostal.
-
The soft limit of 5 prospect keepers makes wait time a bit tricky. For leftovers, the draft historically favors players who are immediately in the NHL except for high-upside prospects such as Morgan Frost, Aleksi Heponiemi and Drake Batherson last year.
Within this context, how would these leftovers be ranked relative to the 2019 class? Thanks!
It's really hard to do a detailed rank with all these players to slot in relative to the 2019 class, but I think at your draft slot you're probably better off taking someone like Hintz, Robertson, Bemstrom, Texier, Brannstrom, Hronek, Cernak, Fox, Sandin, Elvis, Nedeljkovic, etc.
These names are the most interesting to me from the prospects you listed.
MounD - Double Threat FHL (18-19 champs)
10-Team Yahoo daily H2H Dynasty
3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 7Bn (IR)
G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK // W, Sv, GAA, Sv%, SHO
C: Bergeron, Barkov, Aho, Point, Kadri
LW: Marchand, Landeskog, Hertl, Marchessault
RW: Stamkos, Tarasenko, Laine, Palmieri
D: Carlson, Letang, Dumba, Weber, Pietrangelo, Ristolainen, Byfuglien*
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner, Greiss-Varlamov
Farm: Turcotte, Cozens, Denisenko, Newhook // Sandin, Jokiharju, Dobson, K'Andre // Shesterkin