Fantasy Guide Lowdowns 2019 - Vote your PIT player here

[Dobber]

Please vote on the PIT player you most want to see more in-depth thoughts about. Keep in mind that if they were in the Fantasy Prospects Report, I won't include them in the voting...

You can pre-order the Fantasy Guide here: https://dobbersports.com/

So far...

ANA: Terry
ARI: Schmaltz
BOS: DeBrusk
BUF: Mittelstadt
CGY: Hanifin
CAR: Svechnikov
CHI: Strome
COL: Girard
CBJ: Bjorkstrand
DAL: Hintz (by the widest margin yet)
DET: Bertuzzi (slim margin)
EDM: Puljujarvi (slim margin)
FLA: Borgstrom
LAK: Toffoli
MIN: Fiala
MTL: Drouin
NSH: Granlund (by a mile!)
NJD: Zacha/Hischier (tied)
NYI: Pulock
NYR: Buchnevich
OTT: B. Tkachuk

[tweetdrivr]

Dobber the thread title says PHI player vs PIT player..:

[Axeman33]

I fixed the title and voted for Galchenyuk.

[mounD]

I voted for Marcus Pettersson, as I'm very curious to hear other folks' thoughts about what kind of player he can become. With the Penguins current defense corps, they're banking on him playing meaningful top-4 minutes. I think he's capable, but I'm not sure it's an ideal deployment at this point in his career. He showed incredibly well in terms of his isolated impacts at 5v5, despite playing most of his minutes with Johnson, Gudbranson, and Ruhwedel. Basically the worst the Penguins had to offer for D partners, and here's how he looked:

petterssonRAPM.png

When you're being asked to drag around Johnson and Gudbranson, and can put up results like that ... I might start to think there's actually some upside there, especially playing substantial minutes at 5v5 and PP2 for Pittsburgh.

[The Comish]

There's a few guys on this list that I'm interested in hearing more about, but I voted for Galchenyuk.

[j0hn_d0e]

I voted for Marcus Pettersson, as I'm very curious to hear other folks' thoughts about what kind of player he can become. With the Penguins current defense corps, they're banking on him playing meaningful top-4 minutes. I think he's capable, but I'm not sure it's an ideal deployment at this point in his career. He showed incredibly well in terms of his isolated impacts at 5v5, despite playing most of his minutes with Johnson, Gudbranson, and Ruhwedel. Basically the worst the Penguins had to offer for D partners, and here's how he looked:

petterssonRAPM.png

When you're being asked to drag around Johnson and Gudbranson, and can put up results like that ... I might start to think there's actually some upside there, especially playing substantial minutes at 5v5 and PP2 for Pittsburgh.

You already did in depth analysys. Theres no need to vote for Pettersson - case closed

There's a few guys on this list that I'm interested in hearing more about, but I voted for Galchenyuk.

Me too. Blueger, Bjugstad, Aston-Reese and Galchenyuk are the top 4. Has Blueger top 6 potential? Does it mean that Aston-Reese will be bumped for Malkin's wing because of Galchenyuk trade?

[mounD]

Me too. Blueger, Bjugstad, Aston-Reese and Galchenyuk are the top 4. Has Blueger top 6 potential? Does it mean that Aston-Reese will be bumped for Malkin's wing because of Galchenyuk trade?

Assuming Rust is moved to accommodate RFA salaries, I would project the Penguins lines to look something like this:

McCann-Crosby-Guentzel
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Kahun
Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR

I'm not sure if Blueger has top-six potential with this current group, but he did really impress me in limited showings last year. It was disappointing not to see him featured more in the playoffs. In addition to scratching Maatta, and using Jack Johnson as a top-four option on defense, Sullivan made some questionable roster decisions in the second season. I'd look for Blueger to establish himself as 4C with some upside, and potentially in the future if the Penguins move on from guys like Galchenyuk, there could be an opportunity to move up the lineup.

Similar thing for ZAR, I just don't see a top-six winger opportunity for this guy when the team has options like McCann-Guentzel (who worked very well with Crosby in stretches) and Galchenyuk-Kahun. Given the cost of acquisition for both Galchenyuk and Kahun, I don't see many scenarios where they aren't given considerable opportunities in the top-six with the big centers. I do really like Blueger and ZAR as players, but I don't really think there's much fantasy upside in the short to medium-term.

Also, take it for what it's worth (very little to nothing), but I heard one of those talk radio types (Mark Madden talking with Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Trib) saying how the rumblings around the team are that they would like to somehow finagle the PP1 unit so that Galchenyuk and his big shot can be a part of that unit. I'm not really sure what to make of the news, given that it seems like Crosby-Malkin-Guentzel-Letang should be locks for the top unit; however, let's not forget the Penguins love using Hornqvist as a net-front presence, so he's also definitely in the mix. It's going to be an interesting situation watching the Penguins PP1 unit shake out.

[j0hn_d0e]

Assuming Rust is moved to accommodate RFA salaries, I would project the Penguins lines to look something like this:

McCann-Crosby-Guentzel
Galchenyuk-Malkin-Kahun
Simon-Bjugstad-Hornqvist
Tanev-Blueger-ZAR

I'm not sure if Blueger has top-six potential with this current group, but he did really impress me in limited showings last year. It was disappointing not to see him featured more in the playoffs. In addition to scratching Maatta, and using Jack Johnson as a top-four option on defense, Sullivan made some questionable roster decisions in the second season. I'd look for Blueger to establish himself as 4C with some upside, and potentially in the future if the Penguins move on from guys like Galchenyuk, there could be an opportunity to move up the lineup.

Similar thing for ZAR, I just don't see a top-six winger opportunity for this guy when the team has options like McCann-Guentzel (who worked very well with Crosby in stretches) and Galchenyuk-Kahun. Given the cost of acquisition for both Galchenyuk and Kahun, I don't see many scenarios where they aren't given considerable opportunities in the top-six with the big centers. I do really like Blueger and ZAR as players, but I don't really think there's much fantasy upside in the short to medium-term.

Also, take it for what it's worth (very little to nothing), but I heard one of those talk radio types (Mark Madden talking with Jonathan Bombulie of the Pittsburgh Trib) saying how the rumblings around the team are that they would like to somehow finagle the PP1 unit so that Galchenyuk and his big shot can be a part of that unit. I'm not really sure what to make of the news, given that it seems like Crosby-Malkin-Guentzel-Letang should be locks for the top unit; however, let's not forget the Penguins love using Hornqvist as a net-front presence, so he's also definitely in the mix. It's going to be an interesting situation watching the Penguins PP1 unit shake out.

Thanks for the insights, mounD. It's very helpful! So the only way for ZAR or Blueger to get some top6 mins are injuries to the other guys(but we don't want that of course)
It will be interesting to see how that PP units will shake out. Galchenyuk is known for his PP production and looks like that they will give him the opportunity to play with the big guns.

[mounD]

Thanks for the insights, mounD. It's very helpful! So the only way for ZAR or Blueger to get some top6 mins are injuries to the other guys(but we don't want that of course)
It will be interesting to see how that PP units will shake out. Galchenyuk is known for his PP production and looks like that they will give him the opportunity to play with the big guns.

The thing about Galchenyuk on that PP1 unit is that I'm just not sure where he fits. That's a scenario in which the Penguins would have to completely change how they run the PP -- which they're probably going to have to do anyway, given that Kessel basically ran that unit from the left wall. The main problem is losing Kessel's RH shot to operate on the left wall. He wasn't a one timer option, so it's not strictly necessary to replace him with a one timer option (Schultz, or Letang sliding over).

But yeah, Galchenyuk is a LH shot so if he's going to be incorporated it's likely going to be on the right wall as a one timer option. If he's on that top unit, it's going to be to utilize his shot. I'd much rather just have Geno in that spot and build the PP around Malkin one timers. Slide Letang into Kessel's spot on the wall opposite Malkin on the right wall, Schultz on the point acting as facilitator. With this setup, you could just have Malkin and Letang smashing one timers with Jake (or Hornqvist) and Crosby cleaning up the garbage. Another potential advantage is that in this setup you slide Sid down low where he is absolutely lethal with deflections, elite board play, and creative looks from below the goal line. Guentzel would probably slide into the bumper / slot role.

I think this is probably the most likely approach, at least early on in the season. Last season the Penguins were victimized regularly by odd-man rushes against while on the PP, and they surrendered a bunch of shorthanded goals. It was definitely a mark of embarrassment for that group, and it really wouldn't surprise me one bit if their answer to that dilemma was to run 3F-2D. So the above PP setup makes the most sense to me. It looks like it has the makings of a pretty great unit, but I guess this is just a convoluted way of saying I don't think Galchenyuk ends up keeping a PP1 spot for long. His best asset with the man-advantage is performed better by someone like Malkin, and he doesn't really fit in the Kessel spot or the bumper/net roles.

[j0hn_d0e]

The thing about Galchenyuk on that PP1 unit is that I'm just not sure where he fits. That's a scenario in which the Penguins would have to completely change how they run the PP -- which they're probably going to have to do anyway, given that Kessel basically ran that unit from the left wall. The main problem is losing Kessel's RH shot to operate on the left wall. He wasn't a one timer option, so it's not strictly necessary to replace him with a one timer option (Schultz, or Letang sliding over).

But yeah, Galchenyuk is a LH shot so if he's going to be incorporated it's likely going to be on the right wall as a one timer option. If he's on that top unit, it's going to be to utilize his shot. I'd much rather just have Geno in that spot and build the PP around Malkin one timers. Slide Letang into Kessel's spot on the wall opposite Malkin on the right wall, Schultz on the point acting as facilitator. With this setup, you could just have Malkin and Letang smashing one timers with Jake (or Hornqvist) and Crosby cleaning up the garbage. Another potential advantage is that in this setup you slide Sid down low where he is absolutely lethal with deflections, elite board play, and creative looks from below the goal line. Guentzel would probably slide into the bumper / slot role.

Really looks like there isn't a spot for Galchenyuk then. Sounds like he can't replace any of the other guys and make the PP unit better.

I think this is probably the most likely approach, at least early on in the season. Last season the Penguins were victimized regularly by odd-man rushes against while on the PP, and they surrendered a bunch of shorthanded goals. It was definitely a mark of embarrassment for that group, and it really wouldn't surprise me one bit if their answer to that dilemma was to run 3F-2D. So the above PP setup makes the most sense to me. It looks like it has the makings of a pretty great unit, but I guess this is just a convoluted way of saying I don't think Galchenyuk ends up keeping a PP1 spot for long. His best asset with the man-advantage is performed better by someone like Malkin, and he doesn't really fit in the Kessel spot or the bumper/net roles.

If thats the case its almost certain that Galchenyuk will be on the second unit.
Once again, great analysis on the Pens PP situation, Guru!