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Thread: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

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    Post How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Hey all, wanted to pose a question to the entire forum community (i.e. anyone who cares to respond and share some insight). Essentially, I'm wondering how everyone analyzes trade proposals in terms of fantasy value. In other words, when you receive a trade request or you're looking at a trade scenario, how do YOU specifically assess the pieces (stats, age, situation/deployment, etc.) and determine whether the trade is fair/slanted/unfair?

    For example (from my league, a trade involving two other GMs):

    Barzal, Provorov, Cozens, 2020 4th for Barkov, Connor, 2019 4th

    In my view, the above trade is somewhat even as the GM trading for barkov/connor is trying to compete now but staying young and the other is acquiring another young asset along with two relative downgrades (not scrubs obvi). pick swap is a wash. I still feel like there's something missing from my assessment.
    I've been wondering a while about this question, as I've been lurking in the forums for a few months now, reading threads and trying to absorb as much fantasy/trade knowledge as possible. Just trying to accumulate more said knowledge. I'm not expecting a full dissertation, just pretty much wondering where other GMs begin in terms of evaluating trades. Thanks for any responses!
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    A lot depends on the league setup.

    If it's a salary cap league, that plays into determining value a LOT. Also depends on roster requirements and needs. My teams situation will matter as well. If I am contending, age means less to me than if I am re-tooling my roster.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    This is a pretty open question that could be answered a million different ways. I don't think there's any RIGHT way to evaluate a trade. A lot depends on league settings, league rules, the managers themselves and your own biased opinion.

    One thing I believe to be sometimes overlooked is how quickly value or perceived value can change. That's why, every time I propose a trade, I go back to my season projections I made before the year to see how I felt about each player involved in a deal. I'm sometimes shocked to see the drop or rise in value in some players and how you can gain advantage of those perceptions changing so fast.

    Other than that, depending on the league, I tend to value shots and TOI (and PPTOI) as good indicators of future production. I try not to get too invested in younger players as sometimes you can overvalue players simply based on their age.

    And then, just have fun with it, trades are great and a lot of pleasure should be had when dealing with them!

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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    There's no one single way to do it, and no one right way. However, here are a few key points on my end:

    -You can never do too much research. Whether you are looking at contract status, trends, percentages, likelihood of a rebound on a new team, etc, the more research you do the better.
    -Is this trade making my team better? If yes, and you don't think you can pay less to make a similar deal, make the trade. Whether it be a position swap, getting a guy with a higher upside, getting an asset for a guy you were letting go of after the season, etc. It's league dependant, but you shouldn't be making your team worse just to make a deal.
    -What did I go into the discussions trying to address, and what did I come out with. This is a good little check just to make sure you didn't get way off-track.
    -If I posted the deal on the forums, would I have to defend my position, or would people already know why I was making the deal. This is a good question to ask as a bit of a gut check. If you know you would have to defend the deal, maybe it's not the best trade in the first place.


    One of the things I think helped me most, was actually posting more. The more I posted, the more I had to be sure about my reasonings, and got to see how other people considered the same deals. That was actually one of the most valuable resources I can vouch for, is learning by spearheading some discussions, and being the first to comment on trade threads for others.

    If I want to decide if a trade is fair, I consider what the return might have been if one side of the deal or the other was shopped around the league. If other teams would have paid wildly more or less, you have your answer.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    I know how I'd evaluate the trade in your posting - if it's the league in your signature then I like the Barkov side a lot. If you assume that Barzal and Connor are more or less a wash (Barzal has FOWs but Connor scores more goals and it's a goal-heavy league), then essentially the deal is Barkov and a 2019 4th for Provorov, Cozens, and a 2020 4th.

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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Does it help my team/other team now?
    Is it a keeper or a rental?
    Age?
    Upside?
    Am I trading from strength for weakness?
    Injury history?

    All things I consider.

    *Just saw another post that mentioned overall team talent that eluded to the better team having to give up more in a trade. That to me is absolutely ludicrous and should NOT be a factor.




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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    I would basically theoretically total up the amount of points I'd expect all the players involved on either side to accrue and if said numbers are close both ways the trade is fair.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    A lot of factors for me , my main rule is to try and not get caught up in the name... that to me is why trades don't happen between gms. Its great a guy like Mcdavid is named Mcdavid but at the end of the day how much more does he help my format than the guy/guys being offered?

    Positions are huge as well in most formats, Great goalies are hard to come by. Scoring D with Bangers stats are as well

    Injuries of course are another factor. Does a guy get hurt a lot.

    And most important to me is where is my team in comparison to A: other teams in the league (as well as team offering the trade as I might charge more to a team im chasing If the offer fills a need for that team) and B: What is my overall plan for my current team (rebuild, going for it etc)

    As mentioned by some others, there is so many ways to valuea trade

    In the example given here is my thoughts

    Barkov >>> than Barzal and yes that much more asBarzal plays for Trotz and that will limit his production. 4ths whatever theyare close or equal then it comes down to provorov and cozens for Connor, Cozensis an unknown, from what I know he will be a great two way player , fantasywise though we don’t know much about intangibles (he is a “name”) Provorov hasmore value in a banger league then a points league obviously, so that is atough call… if I have a young team in rebuild a few years away I might takeprov and cozens but then again why not stick with a young Connor who plays withgreat linemates.

    So to me the deal is a win for the Barkov side. It could becomecloser if Barzal was traded or Trotz fired in favor of a more run and guncoach, but would you want to rely on that?

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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Fantasy Hockey Geek dot com is a pretty outstanding free resource in which you can customize your league settings, and get a complete picture of player's relative value with your specific league type and categories.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by mounD View Post
    Fantasy Hockey Geek dot com is a pretty outstanding free resource in which you can customize your league settings, and get a complete picture of player's relative value with your specific league type and categories.
    FHG is free now?
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

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    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Thanks everyone for taking some time to spread some knowledge, I dont think I speak for myself in saying sometimes this stuff can get very overwhelming and it's cool seeing like-minded hockey nerds sharing insights.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    FHG is free now?
    Many of the functions are free. From what I can find you only need to pay if you want customized projections.
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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    In general you want to come out of the trade with the best player/asset.


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    Default Re: How do YOU evaluate a trade?

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    In general you want to come out of the trade with the best player/asset.
    This.

    Chances are if you're in a 2:1 or 3:2 deal and you're the side giving up less players, you'll be giving up the best player in the deal and in turn "losing" the deal. That's not always the case, but in most scenarios it is.

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