Re: Tyson Barrie
I'll try to refrain from giving my hot take about Barrie getting PP1 minutes with Toronto, but I will say this much: given the makeup of the Leafs defense, he is probably going to be playing on their de facto top pairing. After Barrie on the right side, the drop off in talent is enormous with guys like Ceci and Harpur. I'm assuming the pairings shake out something like:
Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott-guy
If that's the case, then it becomes quite clear that their best defense pairing is Muzzin-Barrie, and it's not really that close. Ceci is completely uninspiring in his play and he's likely going to be playing lots of minutes with Rielly - at least until Dermott is back in the fold as I know he played a good bit on the right side last season after Muzzin was acquired. Unless Dermott slots in with Rielly, I'm quite confident in saying that I prefer Muzzin-Barrie to Rielly-Ceci.
I guess I will briefly mention the PP just to say one thing. The Leafs paid a significant price to acquire a season of Tyson Barrie, and it would seem strange if he doesn't at least get some opportunities with the PP1 unit, whether they go with 4 Forwards or not. I could see a potential unit with Marner-Matthews-Tavares + Barrie-Rielly, but there's a lot of data to indicate that 4 forward units are, in general, more successful. My response to that would be that Barrie is one of the rare defensemen who plays like a "rover" almost acting as a 4th forward at 5v5. Others that fit this description are guys like Brent Burns and another Leaf, Morgan Rielly. I don't think it would be completely out of the question to run a 3F-2D unit with both Rielly and Barrie, and see what happens. Both Barrie and Rielly have considerable shooting talent, i.e. scoring goals above their xGF rates. In my estimation, it wouldn't be a detriment having both of them on the top PP unit.
Even if he isn't on the PP1 unit, I still think Barrie is going to have a very good season. 50+ points is pretty much a certainty in my opinion, as he's likely going to be spending big minutes with a capable partner (Muzzin) alongside some incredibly talented forwards at 5v5 - either Tavares/Marner or Matthews/Nylander. Just given the skill set that he brings to the table, I have a hard time seeing a situation where he doesn't produce with so many quality talents surrounding him. It's going to be an interesting situation to follow, but I'm not really down in the dumps about it like some Barrie owners might be right now. I get the concerns, but if I weren't an owner I would be leveraging these doubts to acquire him.
MounD - Double Threat FHL (18-19 champs)
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G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, FW, HIT, BLK // W, Sv, GAA, Sv%, SHO
C: Bergeron, Barkov, Aho, Point, Kadri
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RW: Stamkos, Tarasenko, Laine, Palmieri
D: Carlson, Letang, Dumba, Weber, Pietrangelo, Ristolainen, Byfuglien*
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lehner, Greiss-Varlamov
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