Tyson Barrie

[kingpin_co]

Havent seen a thread on him yet..

What's everyone's thoughts on him going forward?

I cant help but think this hurts his fantasy value...

Does he go to PP2 or do they run a two elite D PP1 ala San Jose? Either way, hes got to share with Rielly

As a dynasty owner I hate it... as a Leaf fan I love it...

[niconasr]

It all depends on the PP. If the Leafs decide to load up the top PP and he's on it, he would have a wonderful season. If not, the outlook is not as great. I think he can definitely remain a 50-point guy even with PP2 deployment because of Toronto's offensive prowess but the upside is definitely not as significant without top PP time.

If I had to bet, I'd say he's on PP2 to start the year but will get the occasional look. If he produces in those looks, he could have a great second half.

[mounD]

I'll try to refrain from giving my hot take about Barrie getting PP1 minutes with Toronto, but I will say this much: given the makeup of the Leafs defense, he is probably going to be playing on their de facto top pairing. After Barrie on the right side, the drop off in talent is enormous with guys like Ceci and Harpur. I'm assuming the pairings shake out something like:

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott-guy

If that's the case, then it becomes quite clear that their best defense pairing is Muzzin-Barrie, and it's not really that close. Ceci is completely uninspiring in his play and he's likely going to be playing lots of minutes with Rielly - at least until Dermott is back in the fold as I know he played a good bit on the right side last season after Muzzin was acquired. Unless Dermott slots in with Rielly, I'm quite confident in saying that I prefer Muzzin-Barrie to Rielly-Ceci.

I guess I will briefly mention the PP just to say one thing. The Leafs paid a significant price to acquire a season of Tyson Barrie, and it would seem strange if he doesn't at least get some opportunities with the PP1 unit, whether they go with 4 Forwards or not. I could see a potential unit with Marner-Matthews-Tavares + Barrie-Rielly, but there's a lot of data to indicate that 4 forward units are, in general, more successful. My response to that would be that Barrie is one of the rare defensemen who plays like a "rover" almost acting as a 4th forward at 5v5. Others that fit this description are guys like Brent Burns and another Leaf, Morgan Rielly. I don't think it would be completely out of the question to run a 3F-2D unit with both Rielly and Barrie, and see what happens. Both Barrie and Rielly have considerable shooting talent, i.e. scoring goals above their xGF rates. In my estimation, it wouldn't be a detriment having both of them on the top PP unit.

Even if he isn't on the PP1 unit, I still think Barrie is going to have a very good season. 50+ points is pretty much a certainty in my opinion, as he's likely going to be spending big minutes with a capable partner (Muzzin) alongside some incredibly talented forwards at 5v5 - either Tavares/Marner or Matthews/Nylander. Just given the skill set that he brings to the table, I have a hard time seeing a situation where he doesn't produce with so many quality talents surrounding him. It's going to be an interesting situation to follow, but I'm not really down in the dumps about it like some Barrie owners might be right now. I get the concerns, but if I weren't an owner I would be leveraging these doubts to acquire him.

[ericdaoust]

Unless the Leafs go with 2 D on PP1, I'll vote for less than 50.

[Kofax]

I'm with MounD on this one and think he should be around 50. There's a lot of talent on that team and putting up points shouldn't be a problem for the first two pairs.

[FrozenInferno]

I wouldn't rule out Barrie getting PP1 over Rielly since he's a right hand shot. Our PP could use that option.

[lucafen4]

Unless the Leafs go with 2 D on PP1, I'll vote for less than 50.

Gardiner & Rielly both hat 50+ in 17/18 with a 4-1 PP set up

[ericdaoust]

Gardiner & Rielly both hat 50+ in 17/18 with a 4-1 PP set up

1) It didn't happen last year for Gardiner so there's a more recent example of the 4-1 setup NOT generating two 50-point dmen.
2) Just because Gardiner did it fairly recently doesn't mean Barrie will. I'm betting on it not happening.

[lucafen4]

1) It didn't happen last year for Gardiner so there's a more recent example of the 4-1 setup NOT generating two 50-point dmen.
2) Just because Gardiner did it fairly recently doesn't mean Barrie will. I'm betting on it not happening.

One could also argue that Barrie is a much better offensive player than Gardiner. I'll take that bet.

[kingpin_co]

One could also argue that Barrie is a much better offensive player than Gardiner. I'll take that bet.

Beat me to it lol

you could argue Barrie = Rielly in terms of puck moving skills

[kingpin_co]

Jones and Werenski had 46 and 44pts respectively last year

Perhaps it would be more realistic to expect something similar from Rielly/Barrie?

[ericdaoust]

To clarify, I go into all of my assessments trying to be right more often than I'm wrong. In this case if Barrie hits 50 (which is possible for sure) I don't think he'll clear it by much. It'll be close. I just think he'll fall under. I like the Jones/Werenski example. The team is better off with more talent on the back end, it just doesn't benefit the players individually most of the time.

I see Gardiner's 50-point season as an outlier, not something I'd be banking on repeating under those conditions.

[mounD]

Very interesting, and thorough analysis of Tyson Barrie's game from Ian Tulloch at the Athletic (pay wall):

https://theathletic.com/1061883/2019...-barries-game/

TL;DR: Barrie is a "rover" type who has consistently outperformed his shot metrics, he generates a TON of royal-road cross slot passes, and has shown an ability to raise the game of other elite players like MacKinnon. He's one of those players that you can't simply analyze based on stuff like RAPM / isolated threat, etc.