I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

[mounD]

I'm curious about Ilya Konovalov, compared to other goalies being drafted from this class. He's already going to be turning 21 in a week, and had really good numbers in the KHL this season.

[Bstbullies]

I’m picking 3rd round now in an 18 team league. I’m looking to take firstov what’s the thoughts on him?

Vladislav Firstov has gone in 14 of 21 drafts and his Avg is 49.4, Hi of 29, Lo of 74. 49 seems to be his spot because he's gone in that slot three times. He's more of a late pick than his Avg is showing only going before the 40's three times (29,32,38). I'd say a plus 5 ahead of his Avg and minus 10 behind his Avg is the common range.

[Bstbullies]

I'm curious about Ilya Konovalov, compared to other goalies being drafted from this class. He's already going to be turning 21 in a week, and had really good numbers in the KHL this season.

Konovalov is unfortunately a player I haven't tracked but he's now gonna go on my watch list (yes I have one of those too). I didn't include him in my sheet because I despise goalies in every way imaginable and I rarely draft them young. I always take the, let them simmer on someone else's minors approach and usually trade for them when they are a year or two out. Once the results started coming in I did add Mads Sogaard (Avg 38.29, Hi 17, Lo 81) and Pyotr Kochetkov (Avg 43.5, Hi 19, Lo 105). Spencer Knight is a guy changing my mind by just how high he's going and I just might snag him at with my 17th pick. His Avg has climbed all the way to 11.90, Hi of 3, Lo of 29 (twice).

[PrairieDog]

Screenshot_2019-07-06 Draft Results - National Hockey Dynasty League - Fantrax.png

Screenshot_2019-07-06 Draft Results - North American Dynasty League - Fantrax.png

Screenshot_2019-07-06 Draft Results - North American Hockey League - Fantrax.png

I didn't have any picks in the 1st draft (dealt them both), 2nd and 3rd (only one pick in the late 2nd round) draft I'm Winnipeg.

(in the 1st draft there are some placeholders (Zajac, Williams) guys took to skip their picks, I wasn't around to monitor it).

[Bstbullies]

I didn't have any picks in the 1st draft (dealt them both), 2nd and 3rd (only one pick in the late 2nd round) draft I'm Winnipeg.

(in the 1st draft there are some placeholders (Zajac, Williams) guys took to skip their picks, I wasn't around to monitor it).

Thank you for your contribution PD! I have been using deeper drafts (50 plus) but these drafts have enough pertinent info I can add them. With formats differing so much (scoring cats, roster sizes, rules, having draft leftovers, etc) it really changes the value of players. I'm doing my best to grow the proper sample as large as I can to get a firmer grasp on player ranges that I can share with y'all.

[mounD]

Konovalov is unfortunately a player I haven't tracked but he's now gonna go on my watch list (yes I have one of those too). I didn't include him in my sheet because I despise goalies in every way imaginable and I rarely draft them young. I always take the, let them simmer on someone else's minors approach and usually trade for them when they are a year or two out. Once the results started coming in I did add Mads Sogaard (Avg 38.29, Hi 17, Lo 81) and Pyotr Kochetkov (Avg 43.5, Hi 19, Lo 105). Spencer Knight is a guy changing my mind by just how high he's going and I just might snag him at with my 17th pick. His Avg has climbed all the way to 11.90, Hi of 3, Lo of 29 (twice).

The reason I ask about Konovalov (my highest rated goalie in the draft, actually) is because he is significantly older and more developed than basically every other netminder in the draft, and is already three years older than most with significant pro experience. He kinda fits the bill of the type of prospect goalie I like to go after, and he doesn't even seem to be on most folks' radar. I'm thinking he's easily the best G prospect in Edmonton's pipeline. Thanks for taking a look!

[PittPens1787]

Podkolzin has an Avg of 8.75, Hi 3, Lo 13. He's been pretty darn consistent in the 10 spot going there in 6 of 20 drafts. Anything before 7 is early, anything after 10 is late.

Makes me even more stoked somehow getting him at 19

Echoing the others, thanks for all this info!

[Bstbullies]

Makes me even more stoked somehow getting him at 19

Echoing the others, thanks for all this info!

Your draft must have had a ton of leftovers because there is no earthly way he falls that far otherwise. I’d be dancing in the streets if he fell that much in my upcoming draft (he won’t). I’m looking forward to seeing your full results. As always, the pleasure is on this side of the table. Happy that this project is being so well received. I’ll be adding and spitting out numbers into August. As the sample grows the Hi, Lo, and Avg change so I don’t mind going over players I already have.

[PittPens1787]

Your draft must have had a ton of leftovers because there is no earthly way he falls that far otherwise. I’d be dancing in the streets if he fell that much in my upcoming draft (he won’t). I’m looking forward to seeing your full results.

I'm counting 6 leftovers before Pod which would have put him at 13, right at the low end of your stats. Still would have been a steal!

Results from first 2 of 3 rounds:

Player	Pick	Player	Pick
Hughes	1.1	Boqvist	2.1
Kakko	1.2	Kaliyev	2.2
Dach	1.3	Brannstrom	2.3
Turcotte	1.4	J Robertson	2.4
Caufield	1.5	Knight	2.5
Gusev	1.6	Merzlikins	2.6
Cozens	1.7	Cajkovic	2.7
Byram	1.8	V Olofsson	2.8
Zegras	1.9	Podkolzin	2.9
U-P Luukkonen	1.10	Broberg	2.10

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm counting 6 leftovers before Pod which would have put him at 13, right at the low end of your stats. Still would have been a steal!

Results from first 2 of 3 rounds:

Player	Pick	Player	Pick
Hughes	1.1	Boqvist	2.1
Kakko	1.2	Kaliyev	2.2
Dach	1.3	Brannstrom	2.3
Turcotte	1.4	J Robertson	2.4
Caufield	1.5	Knight	2.5
Gusev	1.6	Merzlikins	2.6
Cozens	1.7	Cajkovic	2.7
Byram	1.8	V Olofsson	2.8
Zegras	1.9	Podkolzin	2.9
U-P Luukkonen	1.10	Broberg	2.10

That Cajkovic pick sticks out like a sore thumb.

[PittPens1787]

That Cajkovic pick sticks out like a sore thumb.

Guy has always been an eccentric drafter, hits a home run once in a while but more often ends up taking 2018-2019 Kovalchuk first overall in the post-keeper draft

[Bstbullies]

Guy has always been an eccentric drafter, hits a home run once in a while but more often ends up taking 2018-2019 Kovalchuk first overall in the post-keeper draft

Thanks for sharing the results PittPens! Unfortunately I won't be able to include this draft in the sheet due to the small size with leftovers. I'm trying to keep the sample as all encompassing as I can without creating outliers. This is a great draft to gauge where leftovers are going though and I'll be adjusting my personal list accordingly. I absolutely love your Podkolzin pick and he should have gone in the 10-14 range even with those leftovers imo. Cajkovic really, really, really, sticks out as EB pointed out. Cajkovic has only been drafted in 7 of 24 drafts with an Avg of 61.71, Hi of 37, Lo of 93. His common range if you can call it that, is after 50. Unless your league is very deep, it's one heck of a swing.

[stevegamer]

The reason I ask about Konovalov (my highest rated goalie in the draft, actually) is because he is significantly older and more developed than basically every other netminder in the draft, and is already three years older than most with significant pro experience. He kinda fits the bill of the type of prospect goalie I like to go after, and he doesn't even seem to be on most folks' radar. I'm thinking he's easily the best G prospect in Edmonton's pipeline. Thanks for taking a look!

He just went at 41st overall in the draft I've been updating in the posting thread. Rookie of the year in the KHL so he seems like a reasonable grab there.

[Bstbullies]

The reason I ask about Konovalov (my highest rated goalie in the draft, actually) is because he is significantly older and more developed than basically every other netminder in the draft, and is already three years older than most with significant pro experience. He kinda fits the bill of the type of prospect goalie I like to go after, and he doesn't even seem to be on most folks' radar. I'm thinking he's easily the best G prospect in Edmonton's pipeline. Thanks for taking a look!

I’d feel remiss if I didn’t go back and do my due dilligence, so I dove back into the drafts and tracked Ilya Konovalov. Kono was drafted in 7 of 26 drafts. Hi of 33, Lo of 90 and an Avg of 60.28. After doing my research (of the non fantasy draft variety) I can see why you’re so high on the kid/young man and it seems most GMs are asleep at the wheel on him (myself included). If he has another year like he just had he’s going to become next years sweet heart.

[mounD]

I’d feel remiss if I didn’t go back and do my due dilligence, so I dove back into the drafts and tracked Ilya Konovalov. Kono was drafted in 7 of 26 drafts. Hi of 33, Lo of 90 and an Avg of 60.28. After doing my research (of the non fantasy draft variety) I can see why you’re so high on the kid/young man and it seems most GMs are asleep at the wheel on him (myself included). If he has another year like he just had he’s going to become next years sweet heart.

Thanks for this! I'm going to try to grab this guy near the end of my prospect draft (10-team, 3 rounds + "swap" rounds).