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Thread: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

  1. #1
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    Default I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    I've compiled twenty prospect drafts so far with a goal of 50 before the end of the month. I've gotten the results from this awesome forum along with HFboards and Twitter DM submissions. I have been posting players draft Avg, Hi, Lo as well as trends and what I'm seeing on my twitter @MatsonHockey (shameless plug and you can submit draft results to me there as well). I've started this thread to discuss any players you're curious about and I'll do my best to give you the ranges and some deeper context to the numbers. I'm able to do some leftovers but the sample is much smaller for them. I also am only tracking about sixty or so '19s as I compiled and started this list a few weeks before the NHL draft. GMs value of certain players varies greatly after the first thirty or so. Only 29 '19s have been drafted in all of the drafts I've tracked and that is part of the reason I haven't expanded the number of 19s. So if you're curious what range a player is going, drop the name or names below and let the discussions begin. There is no offseason.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


  2. #2
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    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Curious about Connor McMichael. Let's hear some numbers!
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  3. #3
    newper114's Avatar
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    How about Dorofeyev and Pelletier. I’ve been seeing them go very close together and recently picked the first one over the latter but curious to hear more
    18 team H2H Keeper League
    G/A/PPP/SHP/GWG/SOG/FOW/Hits&blks/W/GAA/SV/SV%
    play 4c/8w/6d/1G (2min start)/6 bench/
    C: Hughes, Zacha, Howden, compher, Tierney, Frederic
    W: Gaudreau, Schwartz, M.Tkachuk, Fabbri, Bratt, Yamamoto, Wahlstrom, Okposo, Heinen, M.Folingo, Hinostroza, Mcginn
    D: Hughes, Ceci, Pelech, oleksiak, Holden, Poolman
    G: Markstrom, Oettinger,
    P:Rossi,Bowers,Heponiemi,Kupari,Wise,Dorofeyev,Fir stov,Clarke,Fortin,holloway,Nygard,Aberg,Rasmussen ,Elynuik,M.Jones,Chlapik,Platzer,Bracco,Kuokkanen, Lind,Liljegren,J.Roy,Montembeault,Raaymakers,Woll, prosvetov,Larmi

  4. #4
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Curious about Connor McMichael. Let's hear some numbers!
    McMichael has been picked in 19 of 20 drafts with an Avg of 31.42, Hi of 18 and a Lo of 47. Both his draft Lo of 47 and the draft in which he went undrafted had leftovers. Some notable '19s that did go in the draft which McMichael didn't were N.Robertson(58), Firstov(59), and B.Brink(29). I think the Avg is pretty spot on where you would expect him to go in most formats. I think a good plus or minus 10 on the Avg wouldn't be surprising. Anything after 40ish is value unless the draft has a ton of leftovers and even then shouldn't push him past 50 or 60. I like McMichael more than most to put in my own personal bias.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


  5. #5
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Caufield and Podkolzin?
    Points only keeper. 12 Teams. No pos requirements. 18 skaters / 3 goalies (2 count for points.) G/A = 1 point each (includes goalies) Goalies = 1.5 for W / 4.5 for SO. Minors - 4 year protection. Prospects added during their draft year only. Undrafted = waivers.
    Skaters: Tolvanen,Jeannot,Drysdale,Benson,Sprong,Fantilli,H .Lindholm,T. Raddysh,K. Miller,Edvinsson,Roslovic,Sharangovich,McBain,Benn ett,Crouse, Luostarinen,Dube,Phillips
    Goalies: Gustavsson,Schmid,Vejmekla
    Minors: F.Pinelli,Beckman,Cossa,Nikkanen,Tieksola,Pashin,M cMichael,Konovalov,Svechkov,K.Johnson,Moore,Crista ll,Heidt,Ziemmer,Perron,Nadeau,Gulyayev,Wahlberg, Suniev,Tomasino,Khusnutdinov

  6. #6
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Quote Originally Posted by newper114 View Post
    How about Dorofeyev and Pelletier. I’ve been seeing them go very close together and recently picked the first one over the latter but curious to hear more
    Dorofeyev is a harder one to peg down because I include NHL draft slots (GMs tend to follow NHL) in my sample which created an obvious outlier at 79. With that outlier removed his Avg is 30.58, Hi of 21, and a Lo of 40 (twice). He's been drafted in 17 of 19 drafts (NHL removed). I can say the same of him as i said of McMichael, they are going in the same type of tier.

    Pelletier is easier as he's been selected in every draft without any obvious outliers. Avg 28.65, Hi 18 (twice), Lo 44. He's one I would say is going a bit earlier than his Avg dictates. He may slip into the late 30s early 40s but odds are better hes going early 20s.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike's Lemons View Post
    Caufield and Podkolzin?
    Caufield is a huge personal favorite and he's 5 on my board. His Avg places him 5th as well, with an Avg of 7.2, Hi of 3, Lo of 15(NHL). His Lo in fantasy drafts is 13. His Avg is screaming you better pick me at seven because I'm gone at 8. Really gms either love him at 4 or 5 or hes going 8 or 9.

    Podkolzin has an Avg of 8.75, Hi 3, Lo 13. He's been pretty darn consistent in the 10 spot going there in 6 of 20 drafts. Anything before 7 is early, anything after 10 is late.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Well done. Thanks so much!
    Points only keeper. 12 Teams. No pos requirements. 18 skaters / 3 goalies (2 count for points.) G/A = 1 point each (includes goalies) Goalies = 1.5 for W / 4.5 for SO. Minors - 4 year protection. Prospects added during their draft year only. Undrafted = waivers.
    Skaters: Tolvanen,Jeannot,Drysdale,Benson,Sprong,Fantilli,H .Lindholm,T. Raddysh,K. Miller,Edvinsson,Roslovic,Sharangovich,McBain,Benn ett,Crouse, Luostarinen,Dube,Phillips
    Goalies: Gustavsson,Schmid,Vejmekla
    Minors: F.Pinelli,Beckman,Cossa,Nikkanen,Tieksola,Pashin,M cMichael,Konovalov,Svechkov,K.Johnson,Moore,Crista ll,Heidt,Ziemmer,Perron,Nadeau,Gulyayev,Wahlberg, Suniev,Tomasino,Khusnutdinov

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    Bass56's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Brink, Lavoie and Tomasino please

    I’m up now with the 22nd pick and I’m debating between them
    Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
    Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
    W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
    D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
    G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka

    Minors:
    F: Fantilli, Cooley, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
    D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
    G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay

  10. #10
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Thanks for sharing this info.

    I'm curious about Broberg and Holmstrom.
    10 Team, 60 Player Roster
    G, A, PTS, PPP, PIM, BLKs, Hits, +/-, Shots, W, GAA, SV%, Saves
    C- JHughes, Trocheck, RThomas, Zegras, Norris, Bennett, PLD, Stephenson, Danualt
    RW- Raymond, Stone, TWilson, Toffoli, KJohnson, Nyqvist, Zary
    LW- Keller, Schmaltz, Bunting, Skinner, Barbashev, Duclair
    D- QHughes, McAvoy, Doughty, Heiskanen, LHughes, Mintyukov
    G- Shesterkin, Demko, Andersen, Kahkonen, Levi, Tarasov, Annunen

    Notable Prospects- Nikishin, Kulich, Leonard, Wood, Perreault, Lekkermaki, Ostlund, Othmman, REvans, L-Heureux, Ivanov, Murashov

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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Quote Originally Posted by Bass56 View Post
    Brink, Lavoie and Tomasino please

    I’m up now with the 22nd pick and I’m debating between them
    Tomasino has been the guy going consistently ahead of Brink and Lavoie. Tomasino's Avg is 20, Hi of 14, Lo of 40 (pre NHL draft with leftovers) his next closest Lo is 29. He is a very popular pick in the teens going there in 11 of 20 drafts. His Avg of 20 is saying better pick me now because I won't last much longer.

    Brink has an Avg of 24, Hi of 15, and a Lo of 34. He's really been a mixed bag from the teens to the early thirties never really carving out any real spot. He has gone more in the 20s than the teens and I think his Avg plus or minus about five should be where he falls.

    Lavoie has an Avg of 26.25, Hi of 14 (twice), and a Lo of 39. He's had more of a spot than Brink going in the 20s in 12 of 20 drafts. His Hi of 14 where the only two times he went in the teens. I'd give Lavoie a plus or minus seven on his Avg.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


  12. #12
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Quote Originally Posted by Daydream Nation View Post
    Thanks for sharing this info.

    I'm curious about Broberg and Holmstrom.
    Broberg has been one of my favorites to track because of how polarizing he has been in fantasy circles. Some absolutely believe in him and take him early while others watch him tumble down the board. He has an Avg of 18.25, Hi of 8 (9 in fantasy drafts), Lo of 33 (leftovers draft). He was going very early in the pre NHL fantasy drafts and after going 8 in the NHL draft I thought that trend wound continue, Nope. He slowly started creeping into the late teens early 20s. It's been normalizing a bit towards his Avg as of late. I think he makes a good trade up target if he falls past 25.

    Holmstom has an Avg of 39.85, Hi of 23(NHL), Lo of 101 (pre NHL with leftovers). His Hi in fantasy drafts is 26, and most commonly picked in the 27 spot (3 times). His 101 Lo is an outlier and his next closest Lo of 72 (another pre NHL with leftovers) I also consider an outlier. With the two outlier drafts removed his Avg falls to 34.66 which still seems a bit late unless your drafts has leftovers. I'd say plus or minus eight on his Avg is about the range I'd expect.

    You're welcome for sharing the info and I really do get a lot of joy out of sharing it. I also get a lot of joy out of this forum and it's members, yourself included. So many smart thoughts and points of view. Any day discussing fantasy hockey is a good day in my book.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


  13. #13
    Bass56's Avatar
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    Awesome Bstbullies!! Thanks for doing this man!
    Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
    Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
    W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
    D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
    G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka

    Minors:
    F: Fantilli, Cooley, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
    D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
    G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay

  14. #14
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    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    No problem at all! This forum has given me a lot and I'm happy to give back. I'll be active on this thread for as long as there is demand.
    5.5X Champs
    20 Team Dynasty (Unique Cap) H2H 23 Man roster - 20 Minor
    G,A,SOG,PIM,HIT,BLK,FO%,2G+A,D-pts,STG,GWG+SHP+ShootoutG
    W,SV%,GAA,SO Start 4 C,LW,RW/6D/2G Min 3 start/ 3Bench/6IR

    C-Hischier,W.Nylander,
    Benn
    LW-Guentzel,B.Tkachuk
    ,Marchand,Gaudreau
    RW-A.Svechnikov,M.Tkachuk,Duclair,Mantha
    D-Provorov,McAvoy,Gudas,Doughty,Dunn,McDonagh
    G-Hart,Vanecek
    B-
    Brannstrom,Crouse
    Prospects
    Rossi,Berggren,Sillinger,Giv.Smith,Perreault,Kaspe r,Gauthier,Miroshnichenko,R.Johnson
    Perunovich,Salo,Capobianco,Mackey,Woo,Benning,A.Jo hansson,Thrun
    Skinner,Martin,Ingram,Fedotov
    ​Entry Draft 5 Rds [<60gp] '23 2,3,3,5
    Cap 77.82M/82.5M

    Twitter @MatsonHockey


  15. #15
    newper114's Avatar
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: I'm tracking prospect draft results and trends

    I’m picking 3rd round now in an 18 team league. I’m looking to take firstov what’s the thoughts on him?
    18 team H2H Keeper League
    G/A/PPP/SHP/GWG/SOG/FOW/Hits&blks/W/GAA/SV/SV%
    play 4c/8w/6d/1G (2min start)/6 bench/
    C: Hughes, Zacha, Howden, compher, Tierney, Frederic
    W: Gaudreau, Schwartz, M.Tkachuk, Fabbri, Bratt, Yamamoto, Wahlstrom, Okposo, Heinen, M.Folingo, Hinostroza, Mcginn
    D: Hughes, Ceci, Pelech, oleksiak, Holden, Poolman
    G: Markstrom, Oettinger,
    P:Rossi,Bowers,Heponiemi,Kupari,Wise,Dorofeyev,Fir stov,Clarke,Fortin,holloway,Nygard,Aberg,Rasmussen ,Elynuik,M.Jones,Chlapik,Platzer,Bracco,Kuokkanen, Lind,Liljegren,J.Roy,Montembeault,Raaymakers,Woll, prosvetov,Larmi

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