Expectations for new contracts: Provorov, Werenski and Butcher?

[Frank Lemieux]

What do you expect for the next contracts of these 3 Defensman?

[Eskimo Brother]

EvolvingWild's: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
My own: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...6Fc/edit#gid=0

[cheese_cake]

My own expectations:
Provorov at 6M * 4-5 years, or 7M for a longer contract
Werenski 7M * 7 years. I'd be very surprised he accepts less unless it's a bridge (which wouldnt make sense for CBJ to pay him a premium contract in a few years given their state of affaires)
Butcher I'm low on, I belive he gets 5 years * 4,5M per, he is so one dimensional and is behind Subban now, so he has less leverage than you could think.

[Frank Lemieux]

Thanks guys!!!

[Moses]

EvolvingWild's: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
My own: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...6Fc/edit#gid=0

I think both of these are way-way off for Provorov. If Provorov is signing for 6-7 years then he is going to have a much higher AVV than $6.5M - $6.75M in these models. You can't offer him the same term but less cash than Kevin Hayes and expect the agent to even consider it. You'd be laughed out of the room. This is the new reality for the Flyers. I think Provorov gets either a three-year deal at $6M AVV or 8 years at $9.5M AVV from the Flyers.

I think Provorov is ripe for an offer sheet of $8,700,000 x 6 years - The compensation would be 2 x 1st, 2nd, 3rd. I imagine that of the 17 teams that could pull this off (ANA, BOS, CAL, CAR, DET, EDM, FLO, LA, MTL, NSH, NYI, OTT, STL, TBL, VAN, VGK, WPG) at least half of them would happily give up a couple of firsts to lock down a #1 Dman like Provorov. I think Philly would have to match that offer, and they would, but if you are Philly why wait until you are in that situation and just pony up the massive contract right now.

[Eskimo Brother]

I agree with you that Provorov probably commands more than 7M on a longer term deal, but that's what the numbers say. After a bit of a down season, he's probably more likely to bet on himself with a shorter deal.

[Moses]

I agree with you that Provorov probably commands more than 7M on a longer term deal, but that's what the numbers say. After a bit of a down season, he's probably more likely to bet on himself with a shorter deal.

Now don't get me wrong here EB, I'm not taking a swipe at your method or results.

If The Flyers want Provorov at a 'team-friendly rate' they can't also get him at a 'team-friendly term'. This isn't 2017! LOL

I just don't see how the Flyers get to have their cake and eat it, too (or eat their cake and have it, too.., if that is how you drink your wudder) after how their management, and NHL agents, have been operating the past few weeks.

[Eskimo Brother]

Now don't get me wrong here EB, I'm not taking a swipe at your method or results.

If The Flyers want Provorov at a 'team-friendly rate' they can't also get him at a 'team-friendly term'. This isn't 2017! LOL

I just don't see how the Flyers get to have their cake and eat it, too (or eat their cake and have it, too.., if that is how you drink your wudder) after how their management, and NHL agents, have been operating the past few weeks.

No offense taken. I know my method is far from perfect. Just saying I agree with you that the numbers may say one thing, but it's likely we see another.

[fungchen3]

Provorov is going to get paid. He plays tons of hard minutes for the Flyers and is used in all-situations. He's the Flyers #1D, something Werenski and Butcher currently aren't for their respective teams.

I think Provorov is getting 5.5 x 3 on a shorter deal, 7 x 5 on a mid, and 8.25 x 7 on a long deal.

Weresnki will be close, but could be on par if the Jackets are worried about constantly losing their players. I can see them overpaying by a tad to keep their players. His deal will look like Provorov's.

Butcher is not close to their caliber so I expect something like 4.5 x 5.

[Moses]

No offense taken. I know my method is far from perfect. Just saying I agree with you that the numbers may say one thing, but it's likely we see another.

I stand corrected EB . You were pretty much bang-on!

[Eskimo Brother]

I stand corrected EB . You were pretty much bang-on!

For this one anyways, definitely a lot of unexpected contracts this summer though. Both over and underpaid.
I still agree with you that Provorov deserved over 7M.

[lucafen4]

Well done.