Load Management - Is this going to be a thing in the NHL?

[bondon]

Random thoughts popping into my head on a Friday before the long weekend.

We saw load management become a high profile thing with Kawhi Leonard this year, and we're starting to see a bit of a trend with goalies starting to split more starts to keep #1 guys fresh come playoff time. Do you guys think we see this get any bigger in the NHL?

My immediate thought is the use of star players to kill penalties. While it's commendable that a player is strong on both ends of the ice, and you get the odd scoring chance, do you want your star players killing penalties and using their energy in that role?

What do you guys think?

[lucafen4]

Random thoughts popping into my head on a Friday before the long weekend.

We saw load management become a high profile thing with Kawhi Leonard this year, and we're starting to see a bit of a trend with goalies starting to split more starts to keep #1 guys fresh come playoff time. Do you guys think we see this get any bigger in the NHL?

My immediate thought is the use of star players to kill penalties. While it's commendable that a player is strong on both ends of the ice, and you get the odd scoring chance, do you want your star players killing penalties and using their energy in that role?

What do you guys think?

We see that now... tons of elite players aren't used on the PK - Boston's a different beast with Marchand & Bergeron, most teams avoid this scenario.

I'd be more concerned owning someone like Malkin and Pitts deciding to give him every 4th or 5th game off.. or at least 2nd of B2B games to lessen his workload and reduce injury risk

[2014olympicgold]

I don't understand why it's not used more. Everyone talks about the grind teams have and 82games is a long season, then teams that go on a long playoff run play another like 20+ games. People are on the goalies that 65 games is too much in the regular season.

Back to backs, for the Leafs, if you think you can Sit Matthews game 1, sit Tavares game 2.

It's interesting that Boston, all yr had a 1A/1B goalie tandem and never even sniffed going to Halak in the playoffs. You might see this approach first in the NHL where no matter the price you pay your starter, your backup better play 30-40 games.

I'd like to add, I don't think a player would ever accept resting in the NHL. They aren't playing 40minutes one night, then travel to another state to play another 40minutes the next night. Which is NBA. That's why they rest cause their legs are done. Hockey TOI just isn't there for instant "I'm tired, let me rest". You'll get hurt before you're legs are shot.

[Pengwin7]

*Goaltenders seasonal work load reduced.
*Occasionally 7D in a starting line-up.

Those are the two the league is seeing.

A few seasons ago, I counted all the goalies that played 70+ games in the past 8-10 regular seasons.
I think maybe only 1 (or zero) out of 20 or so of them... made it to the Stanley Cup that year.

There's two-three schools of thought on this:
1. Well, only 2/30 NHL teams make it to the Stanley Cup in a given year anyways... so, stats.
2. The teams that were riding their goalies for 70+ may have did so because they needed to scrap for every win possible to make playoffs... because their back-up wasn't reliable.
3. The goalie actually did burn-out... and didn't have the energy to make a long-run in the playoffs.

I don't know...
But the 65+gp goalie starter has certainly fallen by the wayside.
I think a lot more of that is that we are seeing goalies emerge, mentally-strong young goalies, like Matt Murray was for 2-years, and Binnington this year.
And teams want to explore that... and must do so by giving them more starts... and maybe a run of starts in-season.

Also - I don't see any reason where lots of rest hampers a starter.
As long as he gets 2/3 starts, 54+ starts in a year, he'll be sharp enough for playoffs.

For skaters, nah, I don't see much change.
Coaches ask their players if they are fresh, they know how much TOI each player can handle, per game.

The one trend we do see is that teams are aware that a defenseman going down really hurts their feeling to roll three D-pairings.
So we are seeing some teams roster a 7th D-man.

This essentially leads to a 4th line that is two-scrubs... likely two guys that can work half of a PK (1min of 2min) together effectively.
And so that team will basically have:
*Three forward lines
*One dedicated PK-pair (who might take an odd ES shift with one of the 3C)
*7D, with the 5-6-7 rotating as the 3rd pairing... and making 3 solid pairings if one D is in the box or injured.


Trends I've noticed.

[mounD]

I don't know if it's going to translate much into skaters resting more than the occasional game here and there + before the playoffs. Where I do think this sentiment will become more established is with goaltenders, as you mentioned. The days of starters playing 65+ games are over, and I think most teams are probably comfortable with their #1 guy seeing about 50 starts over the course of a full 82-game regular season. Could we eventually see that split move closer to 50/50? Perhaps. But I highly doubt that the near future of NHL goaltending involves full-on committees or anything.

It is already starting to affect the fantasy game more and more. This past season, there were quite a few 1B type goalies that carried considerable value throughout the season: Greiss, Halak, Khudobin, and even Saros to name just a few. These guys who were typically only thought of as "handcuff" options in the past will start to become more valuable at the draft, and even in keeper consideration. Now is a good time to load up on goalies if you're in a keeper league, as I would imagine that with goalie load management becoming more commonplace, the truly elite starters will only increase in value. It's a sound investment.

[bondon]

Interesting thoughts guys. Great discussion.

Has the shift in philosophy for goalies affected your draft plans at all? I know when I first started doing fantasy hockey maybe 10 years ago I used to pick goalies pretty early...but with the inconsistency in goaltenders on a year-to-year basis and increased splitting of workloads I have to wonder if it's just more worth it to draft goalies really late now.

I also wonder how goalies feel about splitting starts. While there's no real evidence that increased rest hampers a goalie's performance I wonder if there are some goalies that WANT to be in there all the time, and get frustrated and upset if they're not. At least, that's how I feel it has been in the past. Guys wanted to play.

[Pengwin7]

Has the shift in philosophy for goalies affected your draft plans at all?

Oh for sure.
EVERY draft I do first starts with thinking about goalie value.
What rounds will goalies be drafted?
What goalies will fall to me if I happen to be the last GM to be going after goalies?
How difficult will it be go get max/full starts? (esp. if ROTO)

In a typical 12-team league, there are 11 other GMs that are completely obsessed with getting their solid TWO starters.
So I always count off the top 22 goalies and then think "How well can I do if my goalies are goalie #23, or #24, or #25 of what's left...???"

For me, I've been trying to value-draft a team-set of goalies to get their full 82gp.
My teams to target last year were Carolina & Florida.
Both had unsure starter splits: Darling-Mrazek & Luongo-Reimer, so they could be targeted later.
Other people in this forum can even verify I went after those guys.

CAR could/would have been a success but the early Darling injury resulted in McElhinney (out of nowhere) coming from TOR and stealing starts/wins/saves. Mrazek was a very solid goalie in fantasy. (but not for sv/gp, damn stellar CAR-D)
FLA just stunk way worse than they should have... as a team.

But I did OK in my one-year leagues.
1st/12 in LOTR's Iron League
4th/13 in horrorfan's RHRS
...can't remember where I finished in the Dobber Expert Division... maybe 5th... I had terrible skaters, but the #1 goalies - there I drafted goalies early though & Price & Luongo (I think).

[mounD]

Interesting thoughts guys. Great discussion.

Has the shift in philosophy for goalies affected your draft plans at all? I know when I first started doing fantasy hockey maybe 10 years ago I used to pick goalies pretty early...but with the inconsistency in goaltenders on a year-to-year basis and increased splitting of workloads I have to wonder if it's just more worth it to draft goalies really late now.

I also wonder how goalies feel about splitting starts. While there's no real evidence that increased rest hampers a goalie's performance I wonder if there are some goalies that WANT to be in there all the time, and get frustrated and upset if they're not. At least, that's how I feel it has been in the past. Guys wanted to play.

I'm just like you in the sense that I've completely altered my drafting strategy over the last couple of years when it comes to goalies. The only difference is my opinion is the exact opposite. I used to draft goalies super late because of the uncertainty around the position. I would be happy just to get a couple guys in the second tier or whatever of Dobber's goalie rankings because of the volatility of the position. But the situation is a little bit different now. With goalies playing fewer games at the top end, that means there are fewer guys available who are even to going to hit, say, 55 starts. You almost have to draft goalies early now just to be sure.

As to your other question about how goalies personally feel about these types of situations, I guess it's different for every guy and every situation. Just look at Robin Lehner and Greiss on Long Island. By all accounts both guys were very happy in that situation, and Lehner in particular was talking about how he doesn't even want to talk with other teams and would prefer to stay in NY. The fact that they are far apart on a new contract doesn't take away from the fact that basically splitting starts was a great situation for both Lehner and Greiss.

[ericdaoust]

Goaltending has never been more random in my lifetime (in fantasy hockey since 2002) than right now. I could be wrong but I've noticed more injuries to goalies the past two years - likely due to a faster, more skilled game demanding more of them. Increased scoring also makes goalies more prone to bad stretches, which makes teams turn to their backups more. Back in the 80s when scoring was at its highest there were also a lot of 1A/1B goalie situations.

[bondon]

I feel like a lot of interesting trends could be analyzed with goalie stats, like perhaps an analysis to determine how many goalies that have little to no expectation placed on them end up being top tier producers by season's end (or close to it). Perhaps using a pseudo-metric like % owned. Of course the circumstances would differ in every situation why something like this might have happened (e.g., injuries, opportunity, coach, structure), but it would be interesting if we could gain a large enough sample size to actually see if, at the draft, you can actually bank on the potential of some guy coming out of nowhere and stealing the show.

Is it 4 o'clock yet?