My statistical predictions:
Case 1: Bobrovsky signs long-term with FLA.
FLA back-up by end of 19/20: 1%
FLA back-up by end of 20/21: 20%
FLA back-up by end of 21/22: 50%
FLA back-up by end of 22/23: 80%
FLA back-up by end of 23/24: 90%*
*No goalie a sure thing... he could be a bust, but I'd say odds are only 1/10 (10%) that a guy with his pedigree will be a bust.
**OBV, Bob would have to get injured or be traded or age badly for Knight to be #1 during this time. Being back-up is key, because it gets him the OPPORTUNITY to play NHL starts.
Case 2: Bobrovsky does not sign in Florida.
FLA back-up by end of 19/20: 5%
FLA back-up by end of 20/21: 40%
FLA back-up by end of 21/22: 80%
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FLA starter by end of 21/22: 50%
FLA starter by end of 22/23: 80%
FLA starter by end of 23/24: 90%*
*Same caveat
Short version: I agree with others. Odds are we'll see him full time on FLA roster during 2021/22, during his 3rd season after draft. So about 3 years.
Carter Hart came in for FLA this year, at about 2.5 years post-draft... even Hextall may have kept Hart in the AHL for this full (his 3rd season after 2016 draft), if Hextall was GM.
The other guy that has recently been as "lock" as Carter Hart is Thatcher Demko.
People were talking Demko as a lock-starter for VAN in summer 2017 & summer 2018.
Demko, who was draft in 2014. Five years & counting there...
Personal Long-Standing Conspiracy Theory on Florida:
I've long held that the FLA owner is going to sell this team for a HUGE profit as soon as Bettman (NHL owners) allow it.
The Panthers have an early out-clause in their lease (Summer 2023) with the South Florida arena... as long as they can show some massive (-$100m) LOSS number on their ledger.
This will be NO problem for the Cats, especially if they front-end BIG contracts to Panarin & Bobrovsky - which is EXACTLY why those two WILL happen.
Also - it works better for Florida to max out their spending - which means they are more likely to WANT to have money tied up in net... until they can OUT and SELL.
Spencer Knight is a great long-term asset... but he doesn't "hurt the budget" on the NHL roster... and even Tallon knows (likely) about Viola's master front-end spending plan.
My 2 cents there.